Could UKIP run Tories close in Hertford and Stortford next may ?

Whilst I’ve been totally turned off by electoral politics and parties in general I do keep an eye on local politics and the moves and changes in our area. Even if a relatively minor area in terms of political significance our area of East Hertfordshire is one to watch I feel. Our current MP is Mark Prisk of the conservative party. Mark who took a while to getting elected failing twice in 92 and 97 eventually was elected in Hertford and Stortford. He was finally elected as the Conservative MP for the constituency of Hertford and Stortford in 2001. Since gaining his seat at Westminster, he has been marked for ministerial office in a future Tory government. He has been promoted from the backbenches to serve at various points as Shadow Financial Secretary, Shadow Minister for Economic Affairs, an opposition whip and Shadow Minister for Business and Enterprise. He is author of several pamphlets on urban design. Currently Mark Prisk and the Tories hold the seat In East Herts with a big majority of 15,437. I would imagine Mark will regain his seat next year but could be run close if UKIP put up a good campaign on the ground. This is a tory stronghold with tories in power in all of the town councils and county councils even if nearby bigger towns of Stevenage and Harlow both have labour councils they both have marginal seats where labour will be looking to take back in 2015. Looking at wider trends across the country and how UKIP are gaining ground on both labour and Tories in the North and the south but not in London yet interestingly I may cover why in a future post. But UKIP who will be fighting a by election in Rochester and Strood on November 20th due to the defection of Conservative MP Mark Reckless to UKIP may see the UKIP really start uping their game on to a new level. Anyone who thought UKIP would just be a flash in the pan may need to think again. Whilst a lot of UKIP voters will be voting them as a protest vote to kick the other major parties a lot are disaffected tories who feel the tories have gone soft on certain issues such as immigration which is a big policy area for UKIP and often makes up the backbone of their politics which also ties into their Eurosceptism . Recent by elections have seen UKIP run labour and the Tories close and even gaining their first MP in the name of Douglas Carswell in Claction earlier this month returning him as a MP with a big majority of 12,404 . Could UKIP do the same in similar areas in the coming elections ? I do think so. Running labour close in a labour stronghold shocked many who felt UKIP were just a threat to the Tories recent months have shown this isn’t always the case. In the months other by-election, Labour held on to Heywood and Middleton but UKIP slashed its majority to 617. Mr. Farage told BBC Breakfast UKIP could hold the balance of power after next year's general election. A worrying thought if ever there was one. So could UKIP run the Tories close in Hertford and Stortford next year? I dont see why not. Mark Prisk is a well known Tory and well known in the area there is not much you can say against him personally apart from he is a Tory and goes along with their thinking and disregard for the poor. I have emailed him before and always had a reply even if I often disagree with his views. UKIP last time out in 2010 in East Herts gained 1,716 votes which was poor but have seen their vote share rocket in recent by elections in comparison to their showings last time around. The political ground has changed and UKIP are feeling the benefits so far as the country slips further to the right. Any thought that the left would do well out of a downturn in the economy and peoples lives has long since been proved wrong in fact it very much has benifited the right in the UK anyway. As for UKIP in East Herts they seem to be on the ball in terms of tracking down the Tories and aiming fire at the local Tories and their plans for development which is promised to increase our population considerably in the coming decades. I do think there is a base for UKIP to build on in East Herts there has been a history of Eurosceptic parties and thinking in the area we even had a party calling themselves the referendum party who claimed to have 50 thousand members back in 1996 who gained 2,105 votes which for a new party back in 97 isn’t too bad given the norm for newly formed smaller parties. UKIP can do well in East Herts and the threat is very real. Those who detest their form of politics must be aware of them and take them on in a big way. A piece from the Hertfordshire Mercury our local paper talks on UKIP selecting its candidate to take on Mark Prisk next year I quote below http://www.hertfordshiremercury.co.uk/UKIP-selects-Hertford-Stortford-parliamentary/story-23035085-detail/story.html " L A teacher who vows to fight for sustainable development and a better life for people on minimum wage has been selected as a candidate for UKIP in next year’s election. Adrian Baker, of Wareside, will fight for the Hertford and Stortford parliamentary seat next May. He said: “I know this is a strong Conservative area, and that we have a fight on our hands, but I welcome that challenge – especially in these exciting times where the old, failing, two-party sy stem is collapsing. “The simple truth is that both the Conservative and Labour parties have let the people of East Herts down. “People are seeing through Cameron's false promises on Europe, and are fed up with his inability to control immigration which is leading to mass development of the Green Belt, no more so than within East Herts where more than 15,000 new homes are proposed to be built.” He praised UKIP’s commitment for everybody on the minimum wage to be lifted out of paying income tax. On local issues he said: On local issues Adrian said, “We have had a massive building programme foisted on East Herts with over 15,000 new houses planned. “Nobody is listening to residents’ concerns or considering the effects on local infrastructure. “Incumbent MP, Mark Prisk, who has recently taken up a second job advising a development company, has been silent whilst bulldozers are poised to dig up our green fields around Hertford, Ware, Sawbridgeworth and Bishop’s Stortford, and our villages and towns are going to lose their rural feel as more and more building takes place. “I'll fight against unsustainable development in our area, but with net migration of 250,000 people into the UK last year alone, the pressure on our Green Belt will remain whilst the Tory government has an open-door border policy. “Until we take back control of our borders, the pressures on housing will never go away.” UKIP’s East Herts District Council Election campaign manager, Jim Boodrie, said: “With his dedication, and knowledge of the area, Adrian is the right candidate not only to lead our parliamentary election campaign, but also to spearhead the election of UKIP members to the East Herts District Council next May”

Last nights Hertford and Stortford CLP meeting, my view

Well last nights Local Hertford and Stortford CLP meeting was very interesting. This was my first time to Bishops Stortford and i enjoyed this visit to Pearces House on the outskirts of the town.



The meeting started slowly as so often these CLP meetings do i have found in my short time attending local ones.



The main topics of conversation were assessments from Steve Terry who was our local parliamentary candidate in the last election. Sadly i thought but i accept his reasons Steve is stepping down from this position citing the fact he has served longer than he wanted to he only initially wanted to stand for 6 weeks it turned out he stood as long as two years.



I would like to personally thank him for taking his time and working with us for the last two and a bit years. ALthought i am new to the party i can already recognise the hard work he put in. It is not a easy job to do fighting against such a strong tory majority in this area. It is very demoralising if your loosing everytime and goign into the election knowing yuo will not win.



I wish Steve all the very best in whatever he chooses to go on to do.I hope to meet him again one day.



As for the future of the party, Steve left the abiding message that we must appoint someone as our parliamentary candidate from within and someone who knows the area very well.



This in my view should be a young middle aged person who has lived in the area all their life. It is a tough job i admit but i would love to one day go for it. It will be good experience if i could ever get into the position to stand.



The point was raised last night that we may not be facing a 5 year term with the coalition, we could be being lurred into a situation where the tories call a quick snap election next year to reafirm their position while they ahve the publics support on their side. I hope this does not happen but can see the tories trying to ram home advantage and bunking off the lib dems in the same go.



The lib dems could well be inialated if they are not careful. Currently the polls stand at 45 percent for the tories, 35 for labour and only 15 percent for the lib dems. If the tories can grab those lib dem votes while there is much love between the parties they may well be able to form a overall majority and really sink home their deep harsh cuts with no trouble at all.



This is worrying and a little depressing i found last night. I was left wondering where is the fight left in this party and where do we go from here, Our CLP came to the decision not to nominate a leadership candidate this i found disapointing a a sad reflection on the 5 candidates we have standing for labour leader. Where do we go from here, i hear messages from the 5 candidates ut are any of them seriously leadership material and good enough to take on David Cameron who lets be f air is a very good and clever polititian. He has all the tricks in the book and i just cant see many of our 5 candidates standing up to him. THis was the feeling last night and i still think it is the overall feeling amoungst the party as a whole.



So we all take a break now for a month or so, both at CLP level and at national level with the MP's i hope whoever gets voted in as labour leader in september has the fight and the passion in them to bring more members to the party and get a movement going again. If not i really fear for the future of this party, which joining recently i really hoped i wouldnt be saying.