UKIP rise in polls we need a socialist reply

Last weeks county council election threw up a popular vote for UKIP who have gained some ground of late focusing on immigration and the question of the EU. But for socialists we need to do more than just say people are fed up with the other mainstream parties to give a proper analysis that this recent phenomena deserves. A proper look into UKIP’s policies has not been carried out and taken apart by our dear capitalist media I wonder why? Well they are diverting the attention from the real issue and that is the deepening crisis that which their system of capitalism finds itself in today. UKIP do not oppose the European Union because it benefits the bosses at the expense of workers. They have no problem with privatisation of public services and industries, restrictions on trade union rights, redundancies or forcing wages down. The leaders of UKIP and many of their backers are mainly right-wing Tories who are trying to push the Tory party into opposing the EU. Many rich donors are now transferring their political donations from the tories to the UKIP party now not totally abandoning the Tories mind you but certainly opening a split on the right of UK politics which will be interesting how it plays out long term. These right-wing businessmen aren't giving millions of pounds to UKIP because they want more money spent on hospitals and education. They oppose the EU partly from a standpoint of wanting more "free trade" and "deregulation" of businesses. That is, more freedom for big business to gamble with our jobs and pensions, and to profit from the sell-off of more public services. The UKIP leader who has had reams and reams of media coverage and it has felt like wall to wall coverage I thought the BBC were bad enough inviting Owen Jones on all the time but Nigel Farage in the last week or so has taken it to a new level entirely. We must be careful as socialists to separate those who vote UKIP through ha sense of frustration with the other parties in a out and out protest vote from their own members who more or less are a load of cranks of course with only in the last few weeks BNP sympathisers have found their way into the party and UKIP say they have no way of stopping them. But UKIP are not fascist as some say they are they may become that in the future but at this stage they are not. Whilst not fascist, UKIP is a party of the hard-right which campaigns not just against the EU but also against LGBT equality, for harsh immigration controls, deeper spending cuts and a quicker break-up of the NHS. In the European parliament it is in a grouping which includes the far-right, anti-gay United Poland party and the right-wing Italian Northern League. Although UKIP inhabits the world of the hard-right it is important to distinguish it from fascist parties such as the BNP. The aim of fascism is to smash all working class organisation and ultimately all forms of democracy (including parliamentary democracy). UKIP comes from the traditional right-wing of UK politics - a lineage which includes Conservatives such as Enoch Powell and Norman Tebbit as well as UKIP supporters like the recently deceased Patrick Moore. In other words: bigoted, nasty and slightly eccentric, but not fascist. Its party organisation is not of the disciplined combat form which characterises fascist parties. So where does UKIP's support come from? The party does seem to have gained support from a section of working class Labour voters - in 2009, 27 percent of UKIP supporters had voted Labour at the previous election, compared to 21 percent who had voted Conservative. This perhaps reflects how the poison of anti-immigration rhetoric pumped out by the press and politicians (including Labour ones, of course) have gained a hearing among some workers. This is combined with the intense bitterness that exists towards the establishment (including the EU) which UKIP has tried to tap into with slogans such as "Sod the Lot: Vote UKIP". Therefore there are some former Labour voters, motivated by hostility to immigrants and/or anger at the establishment, who might vote for UKIP. However since the Tory-Liberal government was formed in 2010, UKIP support seems to be coming increasingly from disillusioned Conservative voters. In 2012 the polling data changed markedly - only 3 percent of UKIP supporters previously voted Labour while 37 percent previously voted Conservative. Under the hammer of austerity from a Tory government working class voters who flirted with UKIP might well be returning to Labour. UKIP certainly seems to be targeting "True Blue" Conservative voters as a priority. After George Osborne's autumn statement UKIP's main objections were that he did not go far enough in cutting spending or attacking workers rights - hardly an appealing message for Labour voters. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has also used opposition to gay marriage in an attempt to peel away further Conservative votes. Therefore the Conservatives crisis is UKIP's gain - they can present themselves as the new home for the disillusioned Tory base. UKIP success in exploiting Tory divisions puts pressure on Cameron to tack to the right - as he has done over the EU - but if he goes too far he risks making the party unelectable. This is his dilemma. The background to the rise in UKIP's support then is a crisis within the Conservative Party. Without understanding this it can seem that the votes and opinion poll support for UKIP heralds a right-wing shift in society, when in fact it is an outcome of the fragmenting of the Conservative Party's traditional base. This does not mean we should be complacent. A right-wing which is a minority can still be an organised force which influences a wider layer of people, especially when its views are amplified by sections of the media and pandered to by politicians. Socialists must be alert to the dangers of right-wing scapegoating and racism in an economic crisis, and be at the forefront of combating these trends. Politically challenging racism and all attempts to divide workers is central to the development of effective resistance to austerity. The crisis is bringing both opportunities and dangers. This brings me to my final point is that the need for a clear socialist party with key policies to cut across the growing UKIP support in working class areas to give workers hope is key. The Trade Union and Socialist Coalition can go so far with this but it’s also for the trade unions of which 6 million people are members of to join and to demand their unions fight back demanding no scape goating of immigrants and to fight for the rate of the job. We do need a new party of the working class labour has lost its working class base. Although workers may still vote for it with their nose pegged this doesn’t answer the question of working class political representation. TUSC hopes to fill that vacuum by offering a clear break with the policies of austerity and despair.

New developments in Cyprus open new chapter of Eurozone turmoil

No trust in capitalist government! No austerity for the Euro! Kick out the Troika! For a socialist alternative! By Tony Saunois, CWI The eurozone crisis has dramatically intensified during the last week. It has blown away the optimism of the ruling class in recent months that they had resolved the crisis. Once again, the continuation of the eurozone, as currently constituted, is seriously threatened. The Cyprus crisis could also dramatically pose the viability of the euro. This time the threat has erupted not from one of the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain). The latest threat to the existence of the eurozone has come from Cyprus. It is a measure of the parlous state of the eurozone and the EU that Cyprus which accounts for 1:500 of the EU GDP (compared to Greece’s 2% of GDP), threatens the continuation of the current eurozone. These developments have intensified the crisis and raised again the spectre of rapid contagion to other countries, especially Italy, Spain and Portugal. Cyprus was also, at least initially, the first country to apparently call the bluff of the Troika. This threatens to set a “trend” for other eurozone countries to do likewise, something which Merkel and the other EU leaders are terrified of. While, at the time of writing, it remains unclear exactly how this new phase in the crisis will unfold, the developments in Cyprus represent the opening of a new chapter. Arrogantly, like a colonial master, the Troika insisted that the Cypriot government confiscate a percentage of the bank deposits held by both rich and poor, 9.9% for those holding over 100,000 euros and 6.75% for others, as a condition for a bail out of 16bn euros. The Troika would provide 10bn euros with an additional 5.8bn raised by the Cypriot government. This was perceived as a dictate by colonial rulers. Yiannaki Omiras, President of the Parliament, argued that, “Europe want Cyprus to return to be a country of limited sovereignty – neo-colonial”. The history of colonial rule under the Ottoman Empire and British imperialism is an important part of Cyprus’s history, fuelling opposition to measures being imposed by the Troika. The confiscation of a percentage of the deposits of all savers provoked a massive backlash in Cyprus and other EU countries caught in the centre of the storm, especially Italy, Portugal and Spain. In one stroke, the imposition of this measure fatally undermined the insurance guarantee for depositors throughout the EU. This can lead to a flight of capital from other weak economies in the EU, such as Portugal, Italy and Spain. If the Troika could impose this on Cyprus, then why not Italy, Spain or Portugal and other countries when the next bailout is needed? It was a blunder by Merkel and the Troika, driven by the ‘hard-line’ Dutch, Finns and Slovaks in support of Merkel and German imperialism. The deposit ‘tax’ threatened to trigger a run on the banks in other countries, as depositors withdraw money from their accounts in fear that they could loose at least a percentage of them. The consequences of this miscalculation – reflecting the arrogance of the EU leaders and that they are lashing around for solutions – has only intensified the crisis. President humiliated In Cyprus, the reaction to the Troika demands was such newly-elected President Nicolas Anastasiadis, in power for just over two weeks, was left humiliated. Bullied into accepting the deal in Brussels, Anastasiadis returned to Cyprus to face a revolt of the mass of the population and all the political parties, including his own. In the end, not a single MP voted for the deal and the governing party, DRP, abstained on the vote! They effectively called the bluff of the Troika, which, in turn, put the ball back into the Cypriot court, by threatening to cut off ECB funds in days, by Monday 25 March. Such a move would effectively put Cyprus outside the euro-zone and possibly even the EU itself. Developments in Cyprus can increase the pressure in other countries for the national governments to stand up to the Troika and the EU. However, the Troika will impose harsh conditions on Cyprus, to punish its people, as a warning to others that this will be their fate should they defy the Troika. Apart from the pressure by the mass of the population to oppose this measure there were other important factors which also allowed the Cypriot ruling class to withstand the demands of the Troika. Deal with other powers Unlike the Greek ruling class, the Cypriot rulers have the prospect to strike a deal with other capitalist powers outside the EU, in particular Russia. But the vote to reject the deal in the Cypriot parliament was not a vote against an austerity package. The cuts package had already been accepted by the previous government, led by AKEL (the Cypriot Communist Party), which has significant support amongst workers, and passed on to its successor. The bail out was a bail out of the banks, which together with tourism, are the mainstay of the Cypriot economy. Cypriot banking is awash with money from Russia – US$31bn invested in Cypriot banks by the Russian banking system alone - due to very favourable tax rates. The vote against the Troika package by the pro-capitalist parties was partly a vote to maintain Cyprus as an offshore tax haven. Banking, which is currently eight-times the size of the country’s GDP, has been teetering on collapse after being exposed to heavy losses as a result of the crisis in Greece. At the same time, Cyprus has gas reserves worth an estimated 475bn euro. This, the ruling class had hoped, would give them the opportunity to broker an alternative deal with Russia. This revealed a clash of national interests between the capitalist and imperialist powers. The prospect of Russia acquiring a share of the oil reserves, in return for at least a percentage of the bail out, enraged Merkel and German imperialism, in particular. Even US imperialism is disquieted at such a development. The extension of Russian influence into an EU country will aggravate tensions with German imperialism and other EU powers. Reflecting this threat, it appears that the Russian deal has collapsed. At this stage, Putin and the Russian oligarchs do not want to come into a sharp collision with Germany and other EU powers, which would threaten trade and other commercial interests. At the time of writing, the apparent collapse of this alternative deal has left the Cypriot government floundering around in a desperate search for a solution. Failure to secure one will possibly result in the ejection of Cyprus from the euro. This would undoubtedly provoke a major crisis in Cyprus. The introduction of a new currency would result in a massive devaluation and flight of capital from the country, massive hike inflation and a slashing of living standards. Moreover, it would also put the question of the viability of the euro back on centre stage of the crisis. This follows a respite in recent months during which the ruling classes in Europe have claimed that the euro crisis was ‘resolved’. Italy next? Yet it has already emerged following the dramatic elections in Italy. Despite the lack of a socialist alternative for the Italian workers and masses, a clear majority voted for the anti-austerity parties. The populist movement led by Beppe Grillo took 25% of the vote, campaigning against the euro, for a return of the lira and a restructuring of Italy’s mountain of 9 trillion euro public debt. There is still no government formed in Italy. Greece Italy, the EU’s third largest economy, would make the drama of the Greek crisis seem like a minor side show in comparison. Moreover, Spain and Portugal also set to follow an eruption of the euro-crisis in Italy. It is possible that the Cypriot government will be compelled to levy a higher tax on wealthy depositors and take other measures, such as nationalising the pension funds. This may allow Cyprus to remain in the euro for a period although this is far from certain. A new crisis would inevitably emerge, posing again the prospect of Cyprus’s ejection from the euro, if Italy, Spain or Portugal has not already gone through the exit door. Need for a socialist alternative. The crucial issue facing the Cypriot workers and middle class is the urgency of building a mass movement to reject any austerity programme demanded by the Troika and capitalism and to oppose any measures which see the masses help pay for a bail-out of the banks. Unfortunately, the leadership of AKEL is not organising a mass mobilisation and presenting an alternative programme to break with capitalism, as a way out of the crisis. In government, holding the presidency, until only two weeks ago, the party accepted the austerity package demanded by the EU and simply passed it on to the new government to implement. Today it calls for a “powerful response by the people” and “mass resistance”. It demands “the popularisation of the vision for the liberation of Cyprus from the suffocating embrace of the monopolies”. It urges people to take to the streets (AKEL Statement 16 March 2013). However, AKEL is not offering a concrete alternative of what should be done in the face of this crisis and the prospect of Cyprus being ejected from the euro. AKEL is currently calling for opposition to the Troika but not the eurozone. Yet membership of the eurozone means acceptance of the austerity demanded by the Troika. Many Cypriot workers and youth will ask what it did when it was in government. In the recent elections, AKEL lost up to 25% of its vote compared to 2008. There can be no trust in the capitalist government. In or out of the euro, these same capitalist politicians will attack the rights and living standards of the Cypriot working class. The Cypriot government, elected only two weeks ago on a promise of securing a ’softer’ bail out, is now largely discredited. Now it is urgent to fight for an alternative government of the workers and others exploited by capitalism. Such a government would oppose the terms of the bailout and reject the austerity programme demanded by the Troika. The banks should be immediately nationalised, under democratic workers’ control and management. Working people reject austerity to keep the euro. Such a government would face immediate ejection from the EU and the euro. A government of the working people of Cyprus would need to prepare for such a prospect. It would need to immediately introduce capital controls to prevent a flight of capital and for a new currency. An emergency economic programme would be necessary to defend the interests of workers and the poor. This would be possible on the basis of a democratic socialist plan of the economy through the nationalisation of the major companies and financial institutions. However this crisis of the EU is a crisis of the global capitalist system. A socialist government of the workers and poor in Cyprus would immediately face the wrath of European and global capitalism. Temporary loans and trade arrangements could be negotiated with other states as an interim step. But it would need also to forge links with the working people of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal. It would be necessary to appeal to them to follow such an example. Together the working peoples of these countries could form a democratic, voluntary federation of Mediterranean and Iberian states. This could be a bridge to reach over to the workers of the rest of Europe with the aim of forming a democratic socialist federation of European states as an alternative to the capitalist EU and Troika. The crisis in Cyprus has opened a new chapter in the crisis in the eurozone and the EU. It has illustrated that the crisis is far from resolved. Deeper and further crisis are certain to erupt in the coming weeks and months. On a capitalist basis there is no solution to the crisis. The struggle for a socialist alternative is now more imperative than ever.

A socialist opposition to the “boss’s club” EU

Now all this week we have heard on the news of David Cameron’s speech on Europe it really wasn’t as big as they made out if the Tories win the next election we will get a referendum after the Tories have re negotiated the deal with EU so many if’s there this is supposable to win over the Tories back bench’s and block the rise of UKIP. But so far the debate on Europe has been dominated by the right well there is opposition to the EU from the left and I will look to outline the opposition to the “boss’s club”. The EU had lots of support at its inception from even some on the left who’d brought into the idea that there was no alternative to capitalism even some ex Marxists in fact peddled this line. For many years the EU and the Eurozone with the single currency sustained healthy levels of growth. In 2013 this is turning into a nightmare due to the straight jacket of the Euro and the deepening euro crisis. The Socialist Party and Committee for a Workers' International (CWI, to which the Socialist Party is affiliated) predicted from the start though that the eurozone could not stay intact. The economies across the zone varied significantly in their features, strengths and weaknesses, yet were confined to a straitjacket of a single currency and interest rate. This was workable to some extent in a period of economic growth but was bound to come under insurmountable pressure in a recession. Reflecting the depth of the crisis, Europe's ruling classes and governments now have no achievable solutions to the crisis to offer and are deeply divided within and between them on what to do. Some argue in vain for a new EU constitution with more central powers and an end to national vetoes on treaties. Others want a looser relationship with the EU or to be out of it altogether. All reveal their bankruptcy - they cannot deliver stability and growth. However, their floundering is not taking place in isolation. Millions of working class and middle class people have participated in strikes and demonstrations against the onslaught on their living standards that is being spearheaded by the EU chiefs. The EU is increasingly being seen as the bosses' club that it is - that has enshrined in its constitution the rule of the market and the attacks that flow from that. Opposing the capitalism-serving institutions that make up the EU certainly doesn't mean rejecting international links and cooperation between ordinary people. The key questions are: What is the character of the institutions, who is controlling them and in whose interests are they acting? The EU is controlled by 27 of the European capitalist ruling classes and flowing from this they act in the interests of big business and the rich. Socialist societies across Europe would be able to democratically elect representatives to an entirely different type of institution - ones serving workers' interests. This would be the basis for a European socialist confederation - an alliance of socialist states - that could democratically, and with full accountability, enable economic, environmental, social and cultural cooperation in the interests of the overwhelming majority of people across the continent. In the last European elections we stood candidates under the No to EU yes to democracy banner no doubt we will try and stand candidates again for a democratic socialist alternative to the EU maybe tagging the no to EU yes to democracy slogan on to the end of our TUSC material perhaps. No doubt UKIP will benefit in these elections given their firm opposition to the EU from the right but its right workers are offered an opposition to the EU from the left a non reactionary class perspective which can help overcome the divisions in society and unite people under a common cause for socialist policies. Lets not let the right dominate this debate let us speak up loudly from the left with our own confident ideas of a democratic socialist alternative with true internationalism not right wing nationalism