Is the UK economy picking up?

We have heard in the last few weeks a set of upgrading by various monetary agencies including the IMF who have upgraded the UK’s growth figures for the coming period. Is this optimism to be believed or is this the markets reacting to a quieter time in the summer months as markets tend to slow during the summer months somewhat. It is a bit of a mixed picture on the global scale with China still rocketing ahead there is still this hard landing being talked of and how China can land as softly as possible without crashing the system. China is hugely in debt and is increasing that debt all the time. “The interesting development is that there has been a pick-up in the pace of expansion since April in the UK and Japan. This would seem to confirm that the fear of a ‘triple-dip’ or ‘double-dip’ recession in the UK was unfounded. Indeed, now all the economic forecasters are raising their guesses on UK expansion, including the IMF, from their dismal forecasts of a few months ago. But just as the forecasters overdid their view on the UK to the downside, they are probably now swinging to be over-optimistic on the upside. At best, UK GDP is going to grow by just 1% in real terms this year and even less per head of population. And the world economy as a whole is slowing down in its expansion. driven by slower growth in China and the other major emerging capitalist economies. Just as the very weak recovery in the advanced capitalist economies dragged down overall global growth between 2009-12, now it seems that the supposedly fast-growing emerging economies will dampen the impact of any relatively faster growth in the advanced economies. In particular, the Chinese economy slowed to 7.7% a year in Q1-2012 from 7.9% at the end of 2012. It is going to be even slower in the quarter just gone and through the rest of the year. Of course, a real growth rate of 7%-plus is huge compared to the rest of the world, but it is not enough to absorb the flow of new labour into Chinese industry and services. Elsewhere, Brazil, India and other major emerging economies are also slowing. But it is the US economy that remains key to the health of the world capitalist economy – it remains the largest, the biggest trader and the dominant financial force. And if we look at the US economy through the eyes of its combined manufacturing and services sector PMI, it remains stuck in a low-growth path, where it has been for almost the whole time since the end of the Great Recession. If anything, the trend is for even slower growth going forward.” So the UK is trapped in an up and down cycle depending on wider forces be it the Euro zone or the US economy which are all linked into the UK. The UK of course exports 50% roughly to the Euro zone so what happens in the Euro zone will be crucial to the UK’s so called recovery. It is true the UK has seen a little bit of growth but I do think the economists who have had gloomy news for a few years now are clinging onto any bit of positivity they can and as a result being far too optimistic now after months of pessimism. “Much has been made of the latest US jobs figures. Employment rose 195,000 in June and after upward revisions for previous months, it seems that average employment growth is now 200,000 a month, higher than the less than 150,000 in the first quarter of this year. But that increase has not made much of a dent in the unemployment rate because more Americans out of work have attempted to look for jobs after having given up for a while. Indeed, the measure of long-term unemployment rose in June, from 13.8% to 14.3%—the highest level since February. This suggests that new jobs are being snapped up by new claimants while those who lost their jobs in the Great Recession remain on the scrap heap, with their benefits being cut or expiring. Moreover, just as in the UK, most of these new vacancies are not full-time permanent jobs at good wages, but part-time, low grade work. The number of people working part-time rose by 322,000 to 8.2 million. These people aren’t working part-time because they want to—it’s because they can’t find full-time work. And of the jobs created in June, 60% were in low-paying positions: 75,000 jobs were created in the leisure and hospitality sector and 37,000 jobs were created in the retail sector. This will eventually translate into low or falling productivity in the US economy, just as it has done in the UK. US corporations are taking advantage of the huge reserve army of labour still out there to introduce part-time and temporary jobs to save labour costs – reduced benefits, no holiday or sick pay etc.” This is one of the tactics currently being used to try and keep the rate of profit up as best they can in the face of huge economic difficulties world over. It will not and cannot last. Capitalism is in a rut it is struggling to get out of. Only re organising society along democratic socialist lines with workers gaining power and owning the means of production and socialising production could we see an escape for the working class’s across the world. With extracts and references from http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/the-world-is-slowing/ “Marks indicate extracts for clarification

China’s pollution overload

China’s carbon emissions have almost doubled in five years By Sally Tang, Socialist Action (CWI Hong Kong). This article first appeared in Socialism Today (July/August 2013), the magazine of the Socialist Party (CWI in England and Wales). People in China’s cities are choking on smog. This past winter the capital Beijing, and other northern cities, suffered their worst air pollution readings on record. In mid-January the US embassy in Beijing, which irritates the Chinese regime by publishing its own widely watched statistics, said levels of PM2.5, tiny particulate matter that can lodge in the lungs causing serious damage, were 40 times the safe level set by the World Health Organisation (WHO). On an expressway linking Beijing to Hong Kong and Macau, there were 40 car accidents in nine hours due to smog reducing visibility. The main causes of air pollution in China are coal burning, cars, construction sites, and the expansion of industry. China’s coal consumption has seen explosive growth, to 4.05 billion tons last year. China now burns almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. Since the failed Copenhagen climate summit in 2009, China’s carbon emissions have almost doubled. Facemasks are common in cities today. Air purifiers are also popular products for those who can afford them. Mike Murphy, CEO of Swiss company IQAir in China, says sales of household air purifiers tripled in the first months of this year. The lifestyles of children have also changed a lot: schools cancel outdoor activities; parents keep their kids at home. Rich families choose international schools as these have spent money on air filtering systems. People are perplexed by the worsening air quality over the last couple of years. Improvements promised by the government have not materialised. Less than 1% of China’s 500 biggest cities meet WHO air-quality guidelines. According to the World Bank, 750,000 people die prematurely because of air pollution every year. Parents are worried about the health of their children. Some company executives speak of a trend of losing talented people, as some middle-class and upper-class parents, and foreigners, are leaving China because of the pollution. But for most of the population – farmers, migrant workers and the poor – there is no choice but to stay and live with it. In June, premier Li Keqiang announced ten new measures aimed at improving air quality, in an attempt to dampen popular anxiety. Heavy polluters must release detailed environmental information to the general public, and the government vowed to reduce major emissions at heavily polluting industries by more than 30% by the end of 2017. But similar promises have been made before and Li’s new measures contradict government efforts to maintain economic growth at 7-8%. The Chinese ‘Communist’ Party (CCP) state does not have a unified position on these issues, however. Local governments pursue their own interests often in defiance of Beijing’s orders. They manipulate statistics and try to suppress information, including the protests against polluting industries. Earlier this year, over 16,000 dead pigs were found floating in the Huangpu river, which supplies one in five Shanghai residents with drinking water. The pigs were dumped by farmers upstream in Jiaxing, a major pig-farming region in neighbouring Zhejiang province. A few weeks later, the same area saw the outbreak of a new bird flu virus, H7N9, which has so far killed 37 people. The WHO warns this is “one of the most lethal flu viruses”. Both examples show the dire effects of a farming industry run for profit: unsafe and over-crowded conditions, abuse of antibiotics and other chemicals. Researchers have uncovered abusive use of antibiotics in large quantities at major pig farms, with cocktails of drugs used. Some farmers feed organic arsenic to pigs as it makes them look pink and shiny, meaning more profits, despite the fact organic arsenic is a carcinogen. The environmental ministry admitted for the first time, in a report issued in February this year, the existence of ‘cancer villages’ in China – with cancer rates high above the national average. This phenomenon has been recognised since 1998, but is denied by the CCP authorities. But this report was denounced as ‘inappropriate’ by top health officials at the March meeting of the National People’s Congress (China’s fake parliament). Instructions were sent out to local media to avoid using the term ‘cancer villages’. Industrial pollution of drinking water, usually by factories built upstream, is the main cause of cancer villages. The factories discharge untreated sewage, containing high levels of heavy metals or other toxic substances, resulting in clusters of cancer illness. There are now 459 cancer villages in China, while the national death rate from cancer has increased 80% in the past 30 years to 2.7 million fatalities every year. Rural China has also seen outbreaks of lead poisoning as a result of factories and smelters that dump their waste into rivers and landfills. Lead poisoning causes brain, kidney, liver, and nerve damage, and children are especially susceptible. In recent years, thousands of individual cases have been reported across at least nine provinces. A Human Rights Watch report in 2011 accused government officials of “arbitrarily limiting lead testing, withholding and possibly manipulating test results, denying proper treatment to children and adults and trying to silence parents and activists”. The economic boom in China over the last 30 years has produced an acute environmental crisis. The country is grappling with seriously polluted air, water, land and food. According to a 2013 report, of the ten most polluted cities in the world, China has seven, including Beijing. The crisis of contaminated food – rice, milk powder, cooking oil, vegetables, fruits, etc – leaves nobody unaffected. News reports in May revealed that nearly half the rice sold in Guangdong, China’s richest province, contained unsafe levels of cadmium, which causes cancer. The government has hundreds of special farms supplying safe crops to the elite. This reinforces a vicious cycle of government inaction over pollution combined with repression against the victims. In 2008, a toxic milk powder scandal caused the death of six babies and resulted in tens of thousands of children getting kidney disease. The government used repression to silence parents’ groups who wanted to find out the truth behind the affair. Zhao Lianhai, whose own child was a victim, was sentenced to two-and-a-half years in jail because of his activism on this issue. An official report showed that 90% of all environmental protests in 2012 were linked to water pollution. It found that 57.3% of the groundwater in 198 cities in 2012 was ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’. One third of rivers and 75% of lakes are seriously polluted, and around 1,000 lakes have disappeared. Unsafe drinking water is being used by 320 million people, and 190 million are sick every year due to water pollution. The last two years have seen a big increase in environmental protests in China. In cities including Dalian, Tianjin, Xiamen and Kunming, thousands have protested against the building or running of chemical plants. The re-emergence of capitalism in China combines the worst features of neo-liberal capitalism together with repressive one-party dictatorship. It means chaos and an absence of even minimal democratic controls. China now leads the world in the production of solar voltaic cells and wind turbines, but around two-thirds of capacity from its wind farms is wasted as the electricity grid lacks the technology to absorb it. The solar industry, which is mainly for export, has built up vast overcapacity and is also a huge consumer of coal power. A socialist solution is needed in order to solve this chaotic situation and to save millions of people’s lives – that is, the abolition of capitalism and democratic public control over the economy. With thanks to comrade Sally Tang, Socialist Action (CWI Hong Kong)

A split ruling class

From how I see it the ruling class nationally and internationally is split. More or less down the middle anyway on how to react to the crisis of their own capitalist system. Do they go for growth or austerity? It is something which features heavily within the European Union as also with intervention from the IMF The IMF echo’s America’s calls for growth but on what basis it doesn’t make clear. Clearly we live in a time of global economic melt down with no sign of a way out of the present crisis that anyone can see. Even China has seen its growth rates cut by the World Bank today too. There have been concerns whether China can sustain its high growth rate amid a global slowdown The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for China amid warnings of slower but more stable global growth over the coming months. The bank now expects the China to grow 7.7% in 2013, down from its earlier projection of 8.4%. It also cut the forecast for global economic growth to 2.2% from 2.4%. The bank said growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, had slowed as policymakers look to rebalance its growth model. Over the past few decades China has relied heavily on exports and government-led investment to boost its economy. However, a slowdown in key markets such as the US and Europe has seen a decline in demand for Chinese exports, prompting concerns whether China can sustain its high growth rate. This is not just a case of world governments being split and undecided to what to do but whole sections of the bourgeoisie who are finding themselves torn further and further apart on solutions for the crisis. Also take the example of Europe with some parts of the bourgeoisie wanting to make a hasty exit from the EU in order to boost our own competitiveness in terms of pushing down wage labour even further than possible at present whilst others warn against leaving and attack the others for even daring to suggest a exit. The euro zone does not work. No measures have been introduced in order to make it work. In any economic union of the kind that was being envisaged, it is obvious that there will be some areas that are richer and some that are poorer. There will be some areas that import more from the richer areas and vice versa. You will consequently find an economic balance that will reflect itself in a series of economic data. Unless the richer areas are prepared to accept that, as in the US, the centre must in some way or other assist parts of its union - with the richer areas in effect subsidising the poorer areas - then it simply cannot work. This is all rather obvious and many people have been making this point for some time. The overall result of these differing viewpoints amongst the bourgeoisie is a muddle. Whereas it is actually possible to get out of the present downturn, that will not happen, because ultimately this would be tantamount to suicide on the part of the capitalist class. Its difficult to know which way the bourgeoisie will turn next there’re signs of a heightened turn towards protectionism in protecting your own markets with the recent flare-up of solar panels with the EU and China. I am thinking we may see more incidents like this when nations and economies start to get desperate to restart growth further and further desperate measures may be attempted. In Japan right now they are trying a plan which is noted by many economists as radical and risky so waiting to see how that one turns out will be interesting too. What is clear though is that we are in a log jam across the world. No country, government or organisation has the magic formula for getting out of this crisis and many expect things to get a lot worse before they get better. Something will have to give eventually as jams in the system cannot last forever. Watch this space for heightened tensions between global super powers in order to deflect the blame for a lack of growth in their own country on others. A split ruling class as Lenin once said is just one part of a successful revolution. The other parts were a middle class also awake and not sure which way to turn in support of the capitalist or the working class. Lastly a mass revolutionary party which we are far from in any country in the world. Things are just hotting up. Our time may come soon. We must prepare for all eventualities.

Climate change a real and now concern, capitalism must go !

Pollution and production for the sake of production Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the most important of the human-made ‘greenhouse gases’ contributing to global warming, appear to be reaching catastrophic levels. Published last week, the latest findings from Hawaii’s Mauna Loa observatory strongly indicate that the average daily level of CO2 in the air has risen to above 400 parts per million, its highest level since the Pliocene period some 2.6 to 5.8 million years ago. A staggering thought. The research data from Mauna Loa goes back 800,000 years to the age of the oldest fossilised air bubbles extracted from Dome C, an ice-bound summit in the high Antarctic. During this pre-industrial period, CO2 concentrations fluctuated between around 180ppm during the ice ages and 280ppm during interglacial warm periods. In other words, we have a massively accelerated pace of change in terms of natural history - there has never been anything like it (as far as we know). And the problem is literally getting worse by the day. Since the measurements started in the late 1950s, the rate of increase has picked up from about 0.7ppm per year to 2.1ppm per year during the last decade. Effectively meaning that CO2 in now rising 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended - a situation that is clearly unsustainable and threatens to totally wreck the planet’s ecological system, which is already severely damaged by capitalist exploitation and plunder. Furthermore, the Nature Climate Change journal on March 12 published an extensive study outlining how more than half of common plant species and a third of animal species are likely to see their living space halved within seven decades on current CO2 emission trends. The species extinction rate is now the highest in 65 million years, with the prospect of cascading extinctions, as the last remnants of vital ecosystems are removed - bird species are dying out at 100 times more than the ‘benchmark’ or ‘natural’ rate. As for the output of greenhouse gases, the study warned, they are putting Earth on track for a 4°C temperature hike by 2100 - chiming with figures produced by the United Nations-established Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has projected increases in average global temperature of up to 5.8°C for the same period. The implications are calamitous. For example, experiments conducted at the International Rice Institute have led scientists to conclude that with each 1°C increase in temperature, rice, wheat and corn yields could drop 10%. You could argue, if so inclined, that the newest statistics concerning CO2 concentrations are hardly surprising, given the sheer amount of coal being furiously burnt around the world right at this very moment. The biggest emitters, naturally, are the United States, China and India - all competing in the ‘dog eats dog’ global race. However, we have now entered a new danger zone - our natural environment is being radically altered. Just think about it. The 400ppm figure is one that belongs to a different era in every sense of the term. As revealed by Mauna Loa and others, the last time we saw comparable levels of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 4.5 million years ago, when the world was warmer on average by 3-4°C than it is today and 8°C warmer at the poles. A time when the tundra in Siberia and Canada was covered in lush forests, savannah and lakes spread across the Sahara, and the Arctic was ice-free - and where the sea level was 20 to 40 metres higher than today, far above most of the world’s major cities. Alarm bells should be ringing everywhere. In a way, we have created - or recreated - a prehistoric climate under modern industrial conditions: what a perverse achievement. Unless drastic action is taken in the very near future, preferably immediately, cities like London, New York and Tokyo are in danger of being drowned like something from a CGI-heavy science fiction movie. Enjoyable as fantasy, or moral fable, but not so as reality. If the advanced countries cannot prevent such a disaster, and there is no reason to think that they can, then what will happen to the poorer countries? An apocalyptic scenario. Bangladeshi peasants, for example, cannot move their farms a mile or so up the road - it is someone else’s land. Capitalism, in reality, is a system uniquely designed not to cope with the ecological crisis that is so obviously gripping the planet. Given its very nature, predicated on production for production’s sake - not on the basis of satisfying rational human need - it is constantly throwing more fuel on the fire. Contrary to a relatively widespread view, capitalism is not the result of countless individual actions taken by ‘bad’ or ‘greedy’ people. Instead it is a form of uncontrolled human relation based on the self-expansion of exchange-value, and this inner dynamic imposes itself on its personifications - ie, the capitalists, who ultimately are slaves to capital just as we in the working class are. Yes, obviously, other past social-economic systems damaged various aspects of the environment - deforestation under the Romans and so on. But capitalism does it on a vaster and more terrifying scale. It is a destructive and wasteful mode of production, which seeks only to make profit - anywhere, anyhow and by any means necessary. Left to itself, capitalism will ‘industrialise’ to the point of self-destruction, making the air unbreathable and the rivers dead with toxic sludge. Conversely, it will effectively leave underdeveloped whole areas of the globe, where it calculates no profit can reasonably be made. It should be pointed out that Marxism is ecological to its very core. Karl Marx fought to overcome the “metabolic rift” between humanity and nature, between town and country, which itself was a reflection - and product - of capitalist class rule over the workers, of dead labour over living labour. Any Marxist who is not an environmentalist - not fighting for a genuinely sustainable planet - is clearly not a Marxist. There are those on the left who peddle the notion that there is a ‘left’ Keynesian solution for present society - ‘green’ jobs, ‘green’ growth, etc. No, it is still capitalism based on growth for the sake of growth. Still the absolute primacy of the profit motive. In short, a reformed capitalism cannot save the planet - so capitalism must go. Only a socialist planned democratic economy can base itself on the needs of the people and also the planet in a sustainable fashion. With thanks and extracts from Eddie Ford’s article at the weekly worker

China an impending crisis

China fascinates me the ruling regime is in crisis and a revolutionary situation cannot be ruled out in the coming period. Reading articles from China Worker our section of the CWI in China and Hong Kong it sounds to me as though there has been a huge power struggle going on in the ruling Communist party. As we know China is a one party state and as the CWI has described it as a state capitalist model not along the lines of the Tony Cliff misguided approach to Russia and his warped ideas of the Russian revolution. This is the latest public foray by the bourgeois liberal wing of the ‘Communist’ (CCP) regime. In the view of this wing, capitalist policies should be accompanied by a partial and controlled political opening, whereas the dominant wing of the CCP favors capitalist economics but rejects any real relaxation of authoritarian controls. The petition’s authors admit their specific proposals are “rather moderate”. They do not demand the end of one-party rule, but instead advocate top-down and gradual “reform”, including now familiar calls for a free press, independent judiciary and more support to private enterprise. As the CWI have explained previously on chinaworker.info, such proposals are a far cry from any democratic agenda, and rather reflect the liberals’ wish to build some political “safety valves” into China’s dictatorial system, and encourage “freer competition” in the economy – steps they hope will prevent a social explosion, a prospect they recognize as more and more likely. “We’d rather have reform instead of revolution, because that would cost the least,” declared one of the signatories, Zhang Lifan. He then contradicted his own ‘low cost’ argument telling Associated Press, “We are treating a dead horse [political reform] as if it were still alive.” The authors make clear they want to avoid revolutionary change in China, a prospect they clearly view with horror. Despite its “moderation” the petition was quickly expunged from cyberspace by government censors. It’s clear the ruling leaders fear any sort of independent workers organisations including trade unions and political parties. Our section in China works underground to avoid punishment in terms of being sentenced or worse. Entitled “Proposal for a Consensus on Reform” the petition of the 70 warns of the dangers of inaction. “If reforms to the system urgently needed by Chinese society keep being frustrated and stagnate,” it states, “then official corruption and dissatisfaction in society will boil up to a crisis point and China will once again miss the opportunity for peaceful reform, and slip into the turbulence and chaos of violent revolution.” The author’s fears are well founded, even if their ‘solutions’ are either inadequate or mistaken or both. Last month a government think tank reported China’s Gini coefficient, a widely used measure of inequality, reached 0.61 in 2010, placing it on a par with South Africa. The capitalist policies of the CCP have created more billionaires than any country apart from the United States, while 500 million people still live on less than 2 US dollars a day. A recent survey revealed that the top ten percent of China’s population own 85 percent of household wealth, whereas in the US the top tenth own 75 percent. In our article ‘What changes can we expect from Xi Jinping?’ published on chinaworker.info on December 28, we explained that the serious splits which have opened within the CCP regime foreshadow revolutionary upheavals in the period ahead. Two months into their term of office, the new CCP leaders seem to sense the growing danger to their system, but at the same time are taking measures to shore up one-party rule, rather than democratise. At the time of the CCP’s 18th Congress in November a poll was published in the Global Times, a regime mouthpiece, showing that 81 percent of respondents supported political reform. The same poll showed that around 70 percent wanted stronger action against corruption. In a more recent article, the same journal summarised the regime’s rationale for rejecting the current calls for political reform: “In next 20 to 30 years, China’s development and reform will be synchronized and symbiotic. Without reform, China cannot develop. And the reason why we need so much time to carry out reform is that social transition needs a long time. China’s reform should be a step-by-step process.” This ‘step-by-step’ argument is a subterfuge, which today fewer and fewer people are falling for. It is devoid of any historical examples to show why “a long time” is needed. Moreover, in recent years the regime has shifted towards more rather than less repressive measures. The CCP tops, especially the dominant princeling families, have amassed enormous financial empires, which are protected and largely hidden by the one-party dictatorial system. This explains their resistance to change. The regime also fears that granting even partial civil rights and freedoms could open a ‘Pandora’s Box’ by triggering mass movements demanding real democratic change. The regime’s hardliners and their liberal critics are united in their fear of the masses, by the spectre of “chaos” and “violent revolution”, and in their support for capitalist policies. They both realise that China’s capitalist development will be threatened when the vast super-exploited working class gains political freedoms and is able to build powerful independent organisations. Where they disagree is over how to prevent such a development. China’s ruling regime apparently gives lip service to cracking down on corruption. This is a smokescreen as no such crack down will happen or is likely to happen. At most a few public crack downs to show examples but wider anti corruption campaigns fall quiet very quickly. “China’s anti-corruption drive is a sideshow”, was the headline of a Financial Times article on 3 January, making a similar point. This article noted that international financial speculators are betting against reduced corruption in China: “Hedge fund managers who like luxury goods as a proxy for the growth of corruption in China continue to hold the shares of companies such as Richemont and Prada. Mainland sales of watches and jewellery may go down but sales offshore are likely to continue as prudent Chinese continue their extravagant purchases – just not in China itself.” Capitalist governments internationally, especially US imperialism which is engaged in strategic competition with the Chinese regime for economic and political hegemony in Asia, may make democratic sounding speeches, but they too fear any genuine movement for democratic change in China, understanding its revolutionary, anti-capitalist potential. US officials can express solidarity with the ideals of China’s ultra-cautious liberals and demand the release of one or other dissident (although only very occasionally in recent years). But these are secondary considerations as far as the US capitalists are concerned, subordinate to their economic interests. General Motors sells more cars in China than in the US, and Apple’s rise to pre-eminence in the tech sector is based on its mass sweatshop production in China. Muhtar Kent, chairman of Coca Cola, said recently that China is poised to overtake the US and Mexico to become the company’s biggest market. In the regional tug-of-war for influence being fought out between Washington and Beijing, US politicians engage in hypocritical attacks on China’s authoritarian system, counterposing their own ‘dollar democracy’. This is to project so-called soft power towards the peoples of Asia as an antidote to China’s fast-growing economic clout. A closer look at US foreign policy shows it has installed and propped up murderous dictatorships around the world, and still today commits human rights atrocities such as its drone attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The US government chooses its allies abroad not on the basis of whether they rule through a system of bourgeois democracy, but based on their usefulness to Washington’s strategic and economic aims. This approach has shaped US policy towards Beijing over more than three decades. It explains why, for example, after the Beijing massacre of 1989, the government of President George H W Bush made only token protests, but quickly resumed full economic and diplomatic relations with China. For the capitalists business comes first! We socialists agree with the open letter on one point – China is heading towards revolution, which is the result of the disastrous policies of the CCP dictatorship. But we reject their assumption, as if this is a historical law, that revolutionary change must be “chaotic” and “violent”. This depends very much on whether the masses and especially the working class have succeeded in building their own organisations, independent unions and a socialist party, which can offer a clear lead to the oppressed masses. In 1989, the mass youth protests against the CCP dictatorship, later joined and supported by millions of ordinary workers, were a model of self-discipline and organisation. The horrific violence that was eventually used to crush that movement came from the side of reaction – ordered by the regime and the ‘architect of reform’ Deng Xiaoping. While many commentators deny this obvious fact, 1989 was a revolutionary struggle, but unfortunately without a clear leadership and programme that could defeat the dictatorship. In our book about 1989, Seven Weeks That Shook the World, published by chinaworker.info in 2009, we analysed these events and explained how the existence of a revolutionary workers’ party could have led to the defeat of the regime and won the rank and file of the army over to the side of democratic socialist change. More recently we have seen similar processes in the Arab world, with the mass upheavals in Egypt and Tunisia, where dictatorial regimes were toppled, but also in Bahrain, where the dictatorship clung to power using foreign troops and state terror against the people. In Egypt the police killed more than 800 people in their unsuccessful attempt to crush the mass movement against the dictator Mubarak. The revolution in Egypt has still not been completed, and the old privileged elite retain their control. These complications are the price the masses must pay for the absence at this stage of a revolutionary socialist mass party. To end one-party rule in China we must learn from these important international struggles and apply the lessons in terms of how to organise and what political programme is necessary. What socialists stand for Socialists and the chinaworker.info website stand for full and immediate democratic rights in China, which is a key difference that sets us apart from the liberal reformers. We understand that in order to win democratic rights the working class must take the leading role, by building its own organisations independently of both the one-party regime and the capitalists – domestic and foreign. These enemies of the working class have a common interest in prolonging the current totalitarian system. Socialists stand for the end of one-party dictatorship, for freedom of political association, the right to form political parties and the immediate release of all political prisoners. We call for immediate free elections to a revolutionary constituent assembly, to replace the purely decorative and millionaire-dominated NPC and CPPCC. Elections should be based on universal suffrage for all over 16 years of age, and should be held more regularly than in Western so-called ‘democracies’ – every second year at least. Elected representatives should be subject to recall by their electorate and receive only a skilled worker’s salary. This revolutionary assembly should introduce a 40-hour working week without loss of pay, a national minimum wage of 3,500 yuan per month, massively increased funding for education, healthcare, and good quality public housing at low rents. The coercive one-child policy and hukou system should be repealed. We demand an end to censorship, for a free press – but not the sham ‘free press’ that is dominated by private media tycoons, as is the case in Hong Kong and Western countries. We stand for generous state funding to all groups, in accordance with their support in society, who want to produce their own publications. We call for an end to state repression, the disbandment of the People’s Armed Police, and democratic control of the police through elected committees. We stand for independent workers’ unions, for the right to strike, and for the right to organise nationally and across industrial sectors. These independent workers’ organisations should link together in democratic workers’ councils that should form the nucleus of a new and truly democratic system of government. We stand for democratic public ownership and planning of the major industries and companies according to need, not in the top-down bureaucratic manner of the CCP in its ‘socialistic’ period, the aim of which was to maintain its dictatorship. There can be no genuine democracy if the economy is owned and controlled by billionaire cliques who use this economic power to direct government policy and enrich themselves. This is the unmistakeable lesson from the capitalist ‘democracies’ where in practise the big companies and banks exercise a dictatorship – witness the undemocratic austerity policies imposed upon the masses of Southern Europe today. Our alternative is a democratically elected workers and poor farmers’ government based on genuine socialism, to reorganise the economy and society to serve the needs of the majority. With extracts taken from http://www.socialistworld.net/doc/6111

World economy faces ‘chain of crises’

THE US ECONOMY – which is one of the few to regain the production levels of pre-2008 – has slowed to its weakest pace since 2009, growing at less than 2% while the world’s biggest economies have lost steam simultaneously. If the Republicans refuse a deal with Obama, if the US topples off the fiscal cliff, this could almost automatically plunge the world economy – which is basically stagnant – into a new deeper recession. The interests of capitalism should logically compel the Republicans to seek a deal with Obama. But the political system in the US, designed originally for an 18th century population of predominantly small farmers, is now completely dysfunctional, along with the Republican Party. Obama, in one of his more revealing outbursts speaking to American bankers in 2009, stated: “My administration is all that stands between you and the pitchforks”. But in the election, this did not earn him the support of the American bourgeois as a whole who favoured Romney in the main. This just goes to show that a class does not always recognise its own best interests! It is the strategists and the thinkers of the ruling class, sometimes in opposition to those that they supposedly represent, who are prepared to stand up for the best interests of the capitalists and chart a way forward. The problem for them today is that the choice is between different roads to ruin for capitalism. The decay, their loss of confidence, is evident in their refusal to invest, as well as the warnings from the hallowed institutions of capitalism: the IMF, the World Bank, etc. Their predictions of a quick escape from the present crisis have been dashed and they have now swung over to complete pessimism. Cameron and the Governor of the Bank of England warn that the crisis might last another decade; the IMF whistles a similar tune. The theme first employed in Japan of ‘zombie banks’ is now used to describe not just the banks but the economies of America, Europe and Japan. And like Japan, bourgeois economists are predicting a ‘lost decade’ for some countries and for Europe as a whole. A comparison with the 19th century depression from 1873 to 1896 is being made, at least for Europe. Martin Wolf in the Financial Times mused, “is the age of unlimited growth over?”, extensively quoting from a new study, Is US Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds. (NBER Working Paper no 18315) This raised the vital question of the role of innovation in the development of capitalism, and particularly in driving forward the productivity of labour. The authors of the above study concluded that there have been “three industrial revolutions” since 1750 that have been crucial in the development of capitalism. The first was roughly between 1750 and 1830, which created steam engines, cotton spinning, railways, etc. The second was the most important with its three central inventions of electricity, the internal combustion engine, and running water with indoor plumbing, in the relatively short period of 1870 to 1900. Both these revolutions required about 100 years for the full effects to percolate through the economy. After 1970, productivity growth slowed markedly for a number of reasons. The computer and internet revolution – described by the authors as industrial revolution three (IR3) – reached its climax in the dot-com era of the late 1990s. But its main impact on productivity, they say, has withered away in the past eight years. They conclude that since the year 2000 invention has been largely concentrated on entertainment and communication devices that are smaller, smarter and more capable but do not fundamentally change labour productivity or the standard of living in the way that electric light, motorcars or indoor plumbing did. This is not to say that there are not the potential inventions for enormously lifting productivity but the dilemma is the current state of capitalism in decline, which is incapable of developing the full potential of the productive forces. The tendency for the rate of profit to fall – and actual falls in profitability – discourages the capitalists from taking up inventions which can develop the productive forces. Then there is the problem of ‘demand’ which in turn has led to an ‘investment strike’, with a minimum of $2 trillion of ‘unemployed capital’ in the cash piles of US companies. And, on top of this, exists the colossal debt overhang. Satyajit Das in the Financial Times berates the American bourgeois who “seem unable to handle the truth – the prospect of little or no economic growth for a prolonged period… Ever increasing borrowings are needed to sustain growth. By 2008 $4-$5 of debt was required to create one dollar of US growth, up from $1-$2 in the 1950s. China now needs $6-$8 of credit to generate one dollar of growth; an increase from $1 to $2 15-20 years ago”. Capitalism faces not one crisis but a chain of crises. They are trying to reconcile the working class to the prospect of little or no growth and therefore of severely reduced living standards, as Greece demonstrates. We must counter this through our programme and emphasise the limitless possibilities – evident even today – if society was organised on a more rational, planned way through socialism. Europe’s intractable crisis THE ECONOMIC CRISIS in Europe is the most serious facing world capitalism. So intractable does the crisis appear, with austerity clearly not working, that a spat has broken out, with the IMF warning against the ‘excessive austerity’ applied by national governments in Europe with the benediction of the EU authorities and the European Central Bank (ECB). On the one side the ECB has sought to implement, like the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, a form of Keynesianism through the purchase of government bonds as well as cheap loans to some banks and countries. On the other hand, these very same authorities – the ‘troika’ – have been the instruments for austerity policies. They have been stung by the implied criticism of the IMF, which has pointed out that a negative ‘multiplier effect’ operates when severe austerity is implemented – cuts in government expenditure, loss of jobs, etc – and therefore reduced income to the state. The ECB and national governments counter with the ‘absolute necessity’ to cut state spending, accompanied by all the other measures of austerity, privatisation, etc. Despite all the pleas and expectations of growth, austerity has had the effect of snuffing out even the economic embers that remained during the crisis. It is true that Keynesian policies have failed to generate growth. In the current situation, it is like ‘pushing on a piece of string’. This has led born-again Keynesians, such as former Thatcherite monetarist Samuel Brittan, to lobby for bolder measures; he advocates what amounts to a giant game of ‘treasure hunt’ in a desperate attempt to get the economy moving again. He suggests, only half-humorously, that hordes of cash should be buried and then the adventurous souls who discover it will then go out and spend it! There is no indication of this happening, however. The largesse that has been distributed so far has been used to clear debts not to increase spending. This is an indication of the desperation of the ruling class for some improvement at this stage. Keynesianism has been partially tried and failed but this does not mean that, faced with a revolutionary explosion, the capitalists would not resort to far-reaching Keynesian measures. Concessions can be given and then the capitalists will attempt to take them back through inflation at a later stage. Even now, the EU authorities are attempting to avoid the default of Greece by suggesting that more time is given for its debts to be paid off. This will not prevent the savage attacks on the Greek working class, which are being applied remorselessly by the EU. Nor will it solve the basic problems of Greece which will still be lumbered with colossal debts. Therefore, a Greek default is still likely, which will have huge repercussions throughout Europe, including Germany, which is heavily indebted to the banks of other countries. It is even possible that Germany itself could take the initiative of leaving the euro, such is the political opposition within Germany itself to bail-outs. Even the proposal to give Greece more time to pay off its debts is meeting with opposition from the German capitalists because it means writing off a small portion of their debt. It is possible that, in relation to Spain and some other countries, the ‘can will be kicked further down the road’. But eventually the can will become too big to kick! Therefore, a breakup of the eurozone still remains on the cards. Even the Chinese express alarm at the turn of events in Europe with a top Chinese official, Ji Liqun, sitting on top of a massive state-controlled sovereign wealth fund of £300 billion, warning that the European public are at ‘breaking point’. He had previously argued that Europeans should work harder but now recognises that the depth of public anger could lead to a ‘complete discarding’ of austerity programmes. “The fact the public are taking to the streets and resorting to violence indicates the general public’s tolerance has hit its limits”, he commented. “Unions are now involved in organised protests; demonstrations and strikes. It smacks of the 1930s”. Not least of his unspoken concerns is that the example set by the European working class could spill over into China itself as well as his fear for Chinese investments in Europe. Greece is the key EUROPE IS THE key to the world situation at the present time, where the class struggle is at its sharpest and with the greatest opportunity for a breakthrough for left and revolutionary forces. But if this is so, then Greece is therefore the key to the situation in Europe, with Spain and Portugal not far behind in the chain of weak links of European capitalism. As Trotsky said of Spain in the 1930s, not one but three or four revolutions would have been possible if the Greek workers had a farsighted leadership and mass party at their head. A Greek computer programmer on the day of the recent general strike commented to the Guardian newspaper in Britain: “Personally, I’m amazed there hasn’t been a revolution”. British TV also commented that just 3% of the population actually supports the austerity measures of the government and the troika. With all the agonies that the Greek people are being forced to endure, by the end of the present austerity programme the debt of Greece will still be 192% of GDP! In other words, there is absolutely no chance that this debt will be paid. Nevertheless, endless austerity is the future that capitalism has decreed for the Greek people. All the conditions for revolution are not just ripe but rotten ripe. Nineteen one-day general strikes – out of which four have been 48 hour strikes and the rest 24-hour strikes – testify to the colossal reserves of energy of the Greek workers and their preparedness to resist. However, they have concluded that, in the teeth of what has been a magnificent struggle, the troika and the Greek capitalists have still not budged and it is therefore necessary to turn to the political front, towards the idea of a left government able to show a way out of the crisis. This is despite the fact that there is scepticism towards Syriza and its leadership on the part of the masses. Significant sections of the masses are prepared to support Syriza, which currently receives as much as 30% in some of the polls, but are not prepared to join and actively engage within its ranks. There is an element of this in many countries. Big disappointment at the failure of the workers’ parties has led to extreme scepticism towards them, even those formally standing on the left. There is a willingness to support left formations and parties in elections, but not to devote time and energy to engaging in their ranks and building them. Workers have been disappointed in the past and fear being let down once more. This mood, of course, can and will be changed once they see these parties actually carrying out what they promise. Instead of moving in a leftward direction, however, left parties in general and Syriza in particular have tended to move to the right, watering down their programme and opening their doors even to ex-leaders of social democracy who have played an open strike-breaking role in the very recent period. In the circumstances of Greece, the flexible tactics employed by our Greek comrades, while remaining firm programmatically, meet the needs of a very complex situation. We have to have an eye not just for those left forces within Syriza but also to the sizeable forces outside, whom in some cases are re-evaluating past political positions. We cannot give a timescale as to when the present government will collapse – as it surely will – with the likely coming to power of a Syriza-led left government. But we have to prepare for such an eventuality with the aim of pushing such a government towards the left, while at the same time helping to create democratic popular committees which can both support the government against the right but also pressurise it into taking measures in defence of the working class. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that a new significant semi-mass force can emerge through the tactics in which we are presently engaged. This will involve not just a concentration on developments on the left and in the workers’ parties but also against the danger posed by the far right and specifically from the rise of the fascist Golden Dawn, whose support recently rose to 14% at one stage in the opinion polls, but has now declined to around 10%. One of the reasons for this is the formation of mass anti-fascist committees, which we have helped to initiate and have drawn in workers, youth and refugees. This work assumes exceptional importance and could be a model for the kind of situation that may confront the working class in many other countries in the future. If the working class and the left fail to carry through a socialist revolution, history attests to the fact that they will pay a heavy price as a consequence. The social tensions which exist in Greece cannot be contained forever within the framework of ‘democracy’. There is already a veiled civil war with more than 90% of the population pitted against the ‘one per cent’ and this can break out into an open conflict in the future. Some far-right elements in Greece have mooted the idea of a dictatorship but this is not immediately on the agenda. Any premature move that seeks to emulate the 1967 military coup could provoke an all-out general strike like the Kapp putsch did in Germany in 1920 and a revolutionary situation. Also a coup would not be acceptable at this stage to imperialism, the ‘international community’, in this era of ‘democracy and conflict resolution’. The capitalists, in the first instance, are more likely to resort to a form of parliamentary Bonapartism, like Monti’s government in Italy but more authoritarian. The fraught economic and social position of Greece will demand a much firmer and more pronounced right wing government than in Italy, with the powers to overrule parliament in an ‘emergency’. If this does not work, and a series of governments of a similar character are incapable of breaking the social deadlock, and if the working class, through a revolutionary party, fails to take power, then the Greek capitalists could go over to an open dictatorship. We have to warn the working class that we still have time in Greece but we have to utilise this in order to prepare a force that can carry through socialist change. The response throughout Europe to the strike on 14 November illustrates how the struggles of the working class are bound together. If the Greek workers were to break the chain of capitalism and appeal to the workers of Western Europe, at the very least to those in southern Europe, there would be a big response to the call for a socialist confederation – probably involving Spain, Portugal and maybe Ireland in the first instance, if not Italy. China at the crossroads US IMPERIALISM HAS identified Asia as a key area – more important than Europe, for instance, strategically and economically – shown by the fact that the first visit of Obama after his victory in the US presidential election was made to the region. This was partly to reaffirm the economic stake of US imperialism but also served as a warning to China of the importance of US military strategic interest. It was felt to be necessary because of the new military assertiveness of China, which was revealed in its recent naval clashes with Japan over uninhabited disputed islands. Japan is beginning to build up its military forces, of course, for ‘defence’ alone! This means that Asia will become a new and dangerous theatre of military conflict with the rise of nationalism and the possibility of outright conflict, where the contending powers will be prepared to confront each other, with weapons if necessary, in order to enhance their influence, power and economic stake. China is the colossus of Asia, the second power in the world after the US. How it develops will exercise a big, perhaps decisive, effect on the region and the world. And China is certainly at the crossroads, as its ruling elite well understands. Like many a ruling group in history, it feels the contradictory tensions swelling up from below and is unsure how to deal with them. Chinese scholars described the current situation of the country to The Economist as “unstable at the grassroots, dejected at the middle strata, and out of control at the top”. In other words, the ingredients of revolution are brewing in China at the present time. The spectacular growth rate of 12% is a thing of the past. It is now like a like a car stuck in snow: the wheels churn but the vehicle does not advance. Growth has probably contracted to between 5% and 7%. The regime claims that there has been a certain ‘recovery’ but it is not expected to return to double-digit growth. This will automatically affect perspectives for the world economy. A growth rate above 10% was only possible through a massive injection of resources, at one-time amounting to a colossal and unprecedented 50% of GDP invested into industry. This, in turn, generated discontent: resentment against growing inequality and environmental degradation as well as communally-owned land being illegally snatched by greedy officials. These and the sweatshop conditions in the factories have generated enormous opposition from the masses with 180,000 public demonstrations in 2010 – and it is has grown since then – compared to the official estimate of 40,000 in 2002. The removal of the ‘iron rice bowl’ and attacks on healthcare and education have added to this discontent. This has forced the leadership to reintroduce a modicum of health cover. How to handle this volcano and which route economically to take haunts the Chinese leadership. The village of Wukan rose a year ago and successfully fought running battles with the police to reclaim land which had been stolen from them by the local bureaucracy. This was symptomatic of what lies just below the surface in China, a subterranean revolt that can break out any time. On this occasion, the local officials retreated but, also, the protesters did not follow through with their movement. It seems that this incident and many others are “small uprisings that continually bubble up across China”. (Financial Times) Many of the protagonists naïvely believe that if only the lords in Beijing knew the scale of corruption, they would intervene to stamp it out. Something similar occurred in Russia under Stalinism. The masses initially tended to absolve Stalin of any responsibility for corruption of which he was ‘unaware’. It was all down to the crimes of the local bureaucracy but not Stalin himself. But the arrest of Bo Xilai and trial of his wife have helped to dispel those illusions. He has been accused of abusing his position by amassing a fortune, accepting ‘huge bribes’, and to have promoted his cronies to high positions. Bo, as a member of the top elite – a princeling, a son of a leader of the Chinese revolution – is accused of complicity in murder, bribery and massive corruption. This naturally poses the question of how he was allowed to get away with this for so long. In reality, it was not these crimes – true though they probably are – which led to his arrest and impending trial. It was because he represented a certain danger to the top elite – in going outside this ‘magic circle’ – and campaigning for the top job. Even more dangerous was that he invoked some of the radical phrases of Maoism, associated with the Cultural Revolution. In so doing, he could have unconsciously unleashed forces that he would not be able to control, which could go further and demand action against the injustices of the regime. And who knows where this could have ended? The Chinese regime is in crisis. It is quite obviously divided as to the next steps – particularly in relation to the economy – which should be undertaken. One princeling commenting to the Financial Times put it brutally: “The best time for China is over and the entire system needs to be overhauled”. Bourgeois commentators in journals like The Economist, the Financial Times, the New York Times, etc, have recently resorted to the terminology which the CWI has used in describing China as ‘state capitalist’. They do not add the proviso that we do, of ‘state capitalist, but with unique features’. This is necessary in order to differentiate our analysis from the crude position of the SWP and others, who incorrectly described the planned economies in the past in this fashion. The direction of travel of China is clear. The capitalist sector has grown at the expense of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the past. But recently, and particularly since the stimulus package of 2008, there has been a certain recentralisation with economic power tending to be concentrated more in the state sector, so much so that SOEs now have assets worth 75% of total GDP. On the other hand, The Economist described China in the following fashion: “Experts disagree on whether the state now makes up half or a third of economic output, but agree the share is lower than it was two decades ago. For years from the late 1990s SOEs appeared to be in retreat. Their numbers declined (to around 114,000 in 2010, some 100 of them centrally controlled national champions), and their share of employment dropped. But now, even while the number of private companies has grown, the retreat of the state has slowed and, in some industries, reversed”. It is clear that a ferocious discussion is taking place behind closed doors amongst the elite. ‘Reformers’ favour a more determined programme of dismantling the state sector and moving more and more towards the ‘market’. They are proposing to lift remaining barriers to the entry and operation of foreign capital. The new ‘leader’ Xi Jinping, despite his ritualistic incantation of ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’, is rumoured to support the reformers. On the other hand, those who have proposed an opening up, both in the economy but also with limited ‘democratic’ reforms, seem to be side-lined. Studies have been made of how former dictatorships like South Korea allegedly managed the ‘cold transition’ towards ‘democracy’. These took place when the boom had not exhausted itself and even then was against the background of mass movements. China’s proposed ‘transition’ is taking place in the midst of a massive economic crisis. China’s rulers are rumoured to be avidly studying Gorbachev’s role in Russia. He began intending to ‘reform’ the system and ended up presiding over its dismantlement. Serious reforms from the top will provoke revolution from below in today’s China. It cannot be excluded that a period of very weak ‘democracy’ – but with power still in the hands of the old forces, like in Egypt today with the army and the Muslim Brotherhood in power – could develop after a revolutionary upheaval in China. But this would be merely a prelude to the opening of the gates to one of the biggest mass movements in history. Conclusions FOUR TO FIVE years into a devastating world economic crisis, we can conclude that there are very favourable prospects for the growth of Marxism. With the necessary qualification that consciousness – the broad outlook of the working class – has yet to catch up with the objective situation, it can still be described as pre-revolutionary, especially when taken on a world scale. The productive forces no longer advance but stagnate and decline. This has been accompanied by a certain disintegration socially of sections of the working class and the poor. At the same time, new layers of the working class as well as sections of the middle class are being created – proletarianised – and compelled to adopt the traditional methods of the working class of strikes and trade union organisation. The potential power of the working class remains intact, although hampered and weakened by the right-wing trade union leadership as well as by social democracy and the communist parties. The CWI has not made a decisive breakthrough as yet in any country or continent. However, we have retained our overall position in terms of membership and especially increased influence within the labour movement. There are many workers who are sympathetic to and watching us, and on the basis of events and our work can join us. We must face up to the situation by educating and preparing our supporters for the tumultuous next period in which great opportunities will be presented to strengthen the organisations and parties of the CWI and the International as a whole.

Will Africa be the saviour of global capitalism ?

With the global economy bubbling frantically to solve its own crisis we new eruptions of class struggle occurring around the world further dips in the world economy have left many capitalist leaders wondering where they can turn next. For some time now many have discussed Africa as the greatest untapped mass of resources and are a capitalist heaven whoever gets their hands on it. "It is my firm belief that Africa represents the next global economic frontier, and I am not alone in that assessment." So said Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for African Affairs, to the US House foreign sub-committee on African Affairs on 17 April 2012. Carson is not alone in expressing growing optimism about Africa. As he also noted, the World Bank's projection of economic growth rates for Africa during the next two years is between 5% and 6%. This exceeds the figures expected for Latin America, Central Asia or Europe. The IMF's forecast for five years, beginning in 2011, has seven African countries - Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Congo, Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria - among the world's ten fastest growing economies. An analysis by the Economist last year reveals that six sub-Saharan African countries - Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad, Mozambique and Rwanda - were among the world's ten fastest growing economies over the ten years to 2010. Indeed, Africa has begun to draw positive remarks from capitalist commentators especially since the dawn of the global economic crisis. The worst capitalist crisis since the 1930s Great Depression, triggered in the United States and Europe, has apparently forced capitalist strategists to search elsewhere for a success story, and they have invented one in Africa. Africa has always been the basket case of the world global economy with mass poverty and with many people starving and living on less than 2 dollars a day. Yet this vast continent is seen as the next place to exploit not only its land but its people too. Leading capitalist media have suspended their characteristic bad press about the continent and now trumpet what are seen as 'positives'. A striking example of this can be found in the Economist where Africa metamorphosed from being the "Hopeless Continent", as in a May 2000 edition, to the "Hopeful Continent", which was the cover story in a December 2011 edition. However, most of these countries' high growth rate figures reflected a pick-up in raw material exports and price increases tied to the growth in global demand, especially from China. For instance, the price of crude oil rose from less than $20 a barrel in 1999 to $147 in 2008. Generally these statistics do not reflect any generalized growth in the economy or in living standards. Besides, any sustained slowdown in the West and China will see a sharp decline in the demand for Africa's exports. We are already seeing a decline in China’s growth and whether or not China will have a soft landing or a heavy landing remains to be seen. This will have catastrophic results in Africa as Chinese imperialism is pumping billions of dollars into Africa improving infrastructure but all with the aim to extract the natural resources Africa holds. It’s not all plain sailing though there is still mass poverty in Africa and capitalism and its leaders have no interest in helping this situation at all. To most working people, who have only seen their living conditions getting worse year in year out, the impressive figures of economic growth being thrown around seem magical. In fact, the huge increases in food and fuel prices mean a continued assault on living standards. Africa today reveals a continent blighted with mass poverty and restricted access to the basic needs of life. For example, in Ethiopia, a country on the 'golden list', 90% of the population was classified as "multidimensional poor" by a United Nations Development Programmed (UNDP) report in 2010. The situation in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer is also aptly described by the UNDP. Its representative in the country, Daouda Toured, correctly noted that "for almost a decade now, Nigeria has been recording consistently a high economic growth rate that has not produced commensurate employment opportunities and reduction in poverty among its citizens." He continued: "Available statistics suggest that the incidence of poverty in Nigeria had indeed worsened between 2004 and 2010" (The Nation, Lagos, 29 August 2012). South Africa, the continent's biggest economy, is the second most unequal country in the world. This is despite "black economic empowerment" driven by the ANC government in post-apartheid South Africa. In Angola, two-thirds of the population lives on less than €1 ($1.25) a day and only 25% of children are enrolled in primary schools (Guardian, London, 18 November 2011). This is the country which was the world's fastest growing economy, beating China into second position, in the decade to 2010. Presently, it acts as a safe haven for Portuguese capitalism, a poster boy of the eurozone crisis. In a classic case of reverse economic migration between Europe and Africa, Angola has not only attracted about 150,000 Portuguese escaping joblessness but has also heavily invested its petrol dollars in Portugal. All this is symptomatic of the situation in Africa where economic growth is reflected in the opulence of the thieving capitalist elite and not in infrastructural development or the living standards of ordinary people. But the capitalist strategists are not concerned about the fate of working people. In so far as there are natural resources to be exploited for super-profit, Africa is a bed of roses. This drive to super-exploit Africa explains why the continent, which is rich in natural resources and fertile lands for agriculture, is dominated by multinationals and run on the basis of capitalist neoliberal policies to benefit the imperialist west. The lack of, or primitive state of, necessary infrastructure has meant that Africa is still largely dependent on exports of primary commodities and only accounts for an abysmal 2% of world output. The so-called 'investors' are mainly interested in commodity and extractive industries which, although driving growth, create few jobs. This failure to develop manufacturing explains why Africa, a classic example of jobless growth, cannot emulate the role of China as an engine of global capitalism despite its huge population and growing urbanisation. On the contrary, capitalism will continue to leave the continent prostrate. With extracts taken from http://www.socialistparty.org.uk/articles/15569?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+org%2FRpdZ+%28The+Socialist%29

Why Marxists warn and fight against imperialism

I’m currently reading Lenin’s excellent work on Imperialism the highest form of capitalism. What a fantastic piece I must say to someone still getting to grips with Marxism and learning about the world and how it really works this piece has been a really top read.

Imperialism is as Lenin quite rightly points out is the heights form of capitalism it is born out of monopoly capitalism which arises as a contradiction to the so called free market. It’s the domination of capital on an international scale breaking out of its national confines to invade and plunder foreign markets in pursuit of greater profits and to see off the competition as much like capitalism does on the national scale.

Imperialism. Imperialism is the epoch of finance capital and of monopolies, which introduce everywhere the striving for domination, not for freedom. Whatever the political system, the result of these tendencies is everywhere reaction and an extreme intensification of antagonisms in this field. Particularly intensified become the yoke of national oppression and the striving for annexations, i.e., the violation of national independence (for annexation is nothing but the violation of the right of nations to self-determination).
This piece which Lenin wrote highlights the role imperialism plays on the world stage and the view which Marxists take towards it. The current state of imperialism is a very interesting thing from what I can understand American and British imperialism would appear to be in decline with the rise of German and Chinese imperialism on the rise in its influence and market share. Germany has done well off the back of the Euro one of the few countries powering ahead still in the world although this cannot last it is for now holding great sway over much of Europe and beyond in some cases. China due to its huge growth in the last period has enabled it to enter new markets in Africa and other parts of Asia Taiwan Malaysia etc. It is the so called strength of eastern imperialism including China which capitalists worldwide hope will pull their system out of this deep crisis it is unlikely to do so as China itself is now slowing and cooling off its growth nod a repeat of the 2008 pumping of the economy by a estimated 12 % of GDP in China is simply not possible any longer. This is a desperate stage for capitalism where it goes from here they have no idea the thinkers part of this system. Hense I think imperialism in the US and the UK for example has taken a beaten of late. The fact that Egypt and Tunisia which were both backed by Imperialism for many years have seen their regimes crumble at the force of the working class is proof that imperialism is not indestructible and immune to crisis’s and defeat. The imperialist backed invasion of Iraq by Western troops in 2003 to remove Sadam Hussein now looks a shattered idea as the idea that only imperialist forces can bring down a dictator has been blown wide out of the water.

The mass’s when they unite and bring dictators to their knees such as in Egypt although not a fully developed situation there now with the SCAF still holding the power there shows that workers and the mass’s are finding their voices and their power which has laid dormant for years is now finally being realised again.

The fight against imperialism has to be international much like the struggle for socialism. A national struggle will always be supported by other workers around the world as we all face the same oppression but a global effort to replace capitalism is what is needed more. Ending capitalism will bring an end to imperialism and exploitation. Growing ideas and building the ideas of Marxism around the globe is key to understanding imperialism. Reading Lenin and Trotsky on the matter is very helpful too I’m still learning and always will be learning. Understanding the way capitalism works and doesn’t work is key to bein a Marxist but applying it to the class strugglea and a programme for winning workers to the ideas to change society is far more important though. This is what the socialist party does day to day and will continue to do to realise a better more equal society for the 99%.

CWI summer school- world capitalist crisis

This week, CWI supporters from over 30 countries are attending a CWI Summer School in Belgium. As well as comrades from across western and eastern Europe and Russia, visitors are attending from North and Latin America, Nigeria, Malaysia, Hong Kong and the Middle East.

Below, is a summary of a plenary discussion on world perspectives.

Socialistworld.net

Niall Mulholland, from the International Secretariat of the CWI, introduced the wide-ranging plenary discussion on world economy and inter-imperialist relations by explaining how every part of the globe is affected by the deepening economic crisis. Due to globalisation, no continent has been able to escape and none of the fundamental problems have been resolved.

The ruling class worldwide is attempting to keep their priviledges at the expense of the working class and their rivals in other nation states. This means the development of new revolutionary movements and the developing possibility of global tensions and conflicts.

Capitalism is a system of extreme inequality. In the USA the top executives had a 38% increase in their bonuses in 2010, whilst two million people are currently on the verge of starvation in east Africa. Speculation in food prices has catapulted an extra 44 million people into poverty this year alone.

But the famine in east Africa is not an ’act of god’. Scientists believe that the region’s successive droughts may be linked to climate change. Local conflicts and imperialism’s meddling in Somalia have also contributed to the famine tragedy, as has the destruction of traditonal pastoral and sustainable ways of living by big business agriculture.

The environment is a vital part of perspectives today and forms a crucial part of the CWI’s programme, particularly now that the UK, China, Russia, and India all have plans to build more nuclear power stations. Environmental issues can shake governments and even bring them down.

In Australia, the Labour Party/Green government introduced a very unpopular carbon tax. Unpopular because the costs of the tax will be simply passed onto the working class by big business, while carbon emissions are set to increase.

To end famine, environmental disaster and poverty requires the reorganisation of the world economy based on social need, which is becoming more urgent as the capitalist crisis is prolonged.
New recession?

Until recently many economists were talking about an economic recovery – looking at the financial markets and the growth of the economies of Brazil, India and China. Now they have discovered that the world economy is locked in crisis. The global economy is in a period of stagnation but unless there is a fundamental change, the cycles of ’boom’ and ’bust’ will continue. But the general trend is now for weaker, shorter growth phases in a general depressionary period of world capitalism. The wastefulness of capitalism can be shown through one fact alone – global unemployment has increased by 27 million since 2007, to 205 million worldwide.

The barbarism of capitalism can be seen in the thousands who have died in the drug gang related violence in Mexico. Thousands of soldiers are engaged in occupying cities, carrying out torture and killings in the name of the “war on drugs”.

The response of the ruling classes to the 2007/8 finacial and economic crisis was to bail out the banks and launch a stimulus package but that has brought a new set of problems. The government deficits forced a reduction in social spending, while the big corporations, the banks and households are mired in debt.

In the US, Obama’s stimulus package is exhausted. His 2010 tax cuts have been wiped out by the increase in the cost of oil and rents. The bursting of the housing bubble has resulted in a cut in household wealth. There is a depression in the contruction industry and in household spending. US companies are cutting production and sacking workers. Over 24 million people are unemployed or underemployed. The number of people needing food stamps has increased by 50% from 2008 to 2011, so 45 million people – nearly one in seven people in the US - need help to get enough food to eat.

The ruling class everywhere is trying to destroy the social gains won by the working class in the post war period and there are more cuts planned.

The breakdown in negotiations between the Repubicans and the Democrats in the US over the economic programme has alarmed the markets and the IMF has warned that even just a crisis of confidence in US solvency can trigger a new global recession.

The Democrats argue for cuts and a small increase in the taxation of the rich, whilst the Republicans, under pressure from the Tea Party on the Right, only want huge cuts. One third of the republicans in the House of Representatives were only elected in 2010 and are vulnerable to Tea Party pressure, so they fear losing their seats if they go along with the Democrats.

Given the dire consequences of a default, even a temporary default, compromise is likely, but it will not bring a long term resolution to the US economic crisis. The US ruling class have no short term strategy, let alone a long-term solution, in the face of this systemic and protracted crisis of capitalism.

The US workers have no choice but to fight and they have already shown this in Wisconsin in the mass struggle against the right wing governor’s anti-union attacks and social attacks. But the failure to stop these assaults, largely due to the union tops not developing the mass struggle, also illustrates the need to build an independent party and fight for a change in the trade unions.
China

China is also prone to the global contradictions of capitalism. The 2008 crisis resulted in a drop in its exports, which cost 23 million jobs. Fearing social unrest, a stimulus programme was introduced by state directed banks, resulting in fast growth which boosted the markets and which also resulted in rising prices.

For three years, China seemed to avoid the world economic crisis but its overheating economy has created new problems and contradictions, not least huge ’bad debts’. The development of industrial production was dependent on loans from state banks, while local authorities borrowed heavily to invest in infrastructure. By the end of 2010, the debt in local government was equivalent to 40% of GDP.

Property speculation has meant a rise in prices and a surplus of housing stock. Yet millions of people cannot afford to buy or rent.

Brazil, Australia and Canada supply a lot of the raw materials for this growth in China. But that means those countries are vulnerable to a downturn in the Chinese economy. Equally, any slow down would mean an attack on the wages and conditions of the Chinese working class.

The ongoing economic crisis and the relative growing strength of China, sees a stepping up of big power rivalaries and tensions.

The ruling class in Pakistan has been developing increasing ties to China, while their counterparts in India are linking up more with the US – worsening the tensions between those countries.

The US ruling class aims to try to impose compliant regimes in vital geo-strategic regions of the world and to control oil reserves and other vital resources. In Afghanistan they have become reliant on warlords, as the occupation and puppert Karzai government lacks any real popular support. Obama plans to withdraw 33,000 troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012, but around 70,000 will stay. They also have 50,000 US personnel in Iraq, in 53 military bases.

There is increasing tensions within the Russian elite in the run-up to presidential elections, mostly around economic policy and the approach to the west. President Medvedev is more pro-western and ’free market’ orientated. Both Prime Miniser Putin and Medvedev want to stand in the elections but both are facing falling support in polls. In the context of growing discontent amongst the massses in Russia, the struggle between Putin and Medvedev could become explosive.
Chavez

In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez’s serious illness has brought to the surface the competing factions in the regime. Chavez is still popular due to his social reform programmes, including in health and education. But suppport for the ’Bolivarian’ regime is declining against a background of electricity cuts, corruption, a housing crisis and one of the highest murder rates in the world. A new layer of the ruling bureaucracy is becoming enriched.

Chavez has announced he will stand for another six-year term but if his health worsens and he is out of the country for pro-longed peroids, it can open up a power struggle. This will give a boost to the reactionary opposition. And if the Bolvarian revolution unravels, it will have a big effect on Cuba, which relys on Venezuelan oil.

The only way to defend the social gains which have been won in Venezuela and Cuba, is for the working class to organise in defence of the revolution: taking the economy under the democratic control and management of the working class and spreading the revolution across the Americas.

The polarisation between the rich and poor across Latin America has fuelled the class struggle. In Brazil, there have been battles against corruption and tens of thousands of teachers and students marched in Chile on 30 June in defence of public education.
Industrial struggles in Africa

In Africa, the struggles of the working class have been boosted by the revolutionary movements in north Africa and the middle East. In south Africa, a recent three-week strike of engineers resulted in concessions. South African fuel workers are now in battle. These movements shook the pro-market ANC government but the COSATU trade union federation failed to co-ordinate the strikes effectively and to spread the action to meet the needs of millions of workers and poor.

In Nigeria, a three-day general strike over wages has been called off but this issue has the potential to explode again, given the terrible poverty conditions facing millions.There have also been “unprecented” protests in Malawi, where 75% of the population live on less than one dollar a day.

These examples show the potential for workign class resistance to develop. But there is a big gap between the needs of the working class and the level of conciousness amongst workers worldwide. The CWI aims to link struggles of workers worldwide, to campaign for and where possible help build new mass fighting parties of the working class and to also build the forces of Marxism.

During the plenary discussion, speakers from around the world gave inspiring reports of social and workers’ struggles and also about the development of the CWI.

In Australia, exporting raw materials to China and Japan has resulted in a boom in the mining industry, but also a lop-sided aspect to the economy. Mass conciousness may lag behind Europe and elsewhere but this period of relative quiet will not be maintained due to the crisis that will also hit Australia. The Labour Party minority government is at an historic low in the polls, following the imposition of the carbon tax. If there were an election tomorrow the opposition Right would win but only to launch an even more serious attack on the working class. A European-style revolt could develop in Australia. It suffers the same underlying problems of debt and one third of all jobs are identified as “unstable”.

Malaysia has been a fast-growing economy in recent years but it is not immune to the crisis. Exports of raw material, such as rubber to China, resulted in a 7% growth in 2010. But Malaysia is highly dependent on more powerful economies. Once the country is flooded with cheap Chinese goods, the local market will not be able to compete. Meanwhile the government is looking for further ’liberalisation’ – dismantling price control and slashing spending.

Paul Murphy, a Socialist Party MEP (member of the European Parliament), from Ireland, gave an inspiring report of his recent visit to workers in Kazakhstan. Using his position as an MEP, Paul was able to give concrete support to striking oil workers, who are waging one of the biggest industrial battles of workers in any ex-Soviet country since the collapse of Stalinism.

Kazakhstan is the richest country in the world in terms of its natural resources per head of population, but nearly all the money goes to the ruling elite. The oil workers labour in desert conditions, with very hot summers and very cold winters.

The workers are striking over wages, for the right to form independent trade unions and for the release of their union’s lawyer, who were jailed when the dispute began.

Thousands of workers have been on strike for two months with no strike pay and many have to support a family of eight or nine people. Some have been on hunger strike for 40 days in protest at the bosses.

The full force of the state has been used against the workers. Hundreds have been, in effect, locked out and some have received death threats.

Paul Murphy was warmly welcomed at mass meetings of the striking workers and he was able to help in negotiations with the management. Expecting a token visit from a compliant MEP, the top management were shocked when Paul argued vehemently on behalf of the workers.

All of this was reported prominently in the non-government Kazakh press, which helped to boost the confidence of the workforce. The task now is to build support internationally. Paul promised the company that if they did not begin meaningful negotiations there would be a massive international campaign against them.

Meanwhile, the Kazakh government know this is not just an economic strike – it is inspiring workers across the country.
Environment

One of the big questions facing the working class worldwide is the environment. Pete from the Socialist Party (England and Wales) explained that the National Academy of Sciences in the US concluded that emissions of greenhouse gases “stabilised” since 1990. But a 40% cut is needed in the next ten years to tackle global warming.

There has been a massive export of pollution to China. Between 2002 and 2008, greenhouse gas output in China rose from four to seven gigatonnes.

China consumes half of the world’s cement, coal, steel and iron ore and it is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

The majority of Greens argue for a huge cut in consumption, condemning workers in China and other countries like India to eternal poverty. At least the Green Left activists blame the world’s imperialist powers for this situation.

The Chinese government opportunistically echoes this argument. It develops renewable energy sources but as a part of a profit-driven attempt to become the world’s leader in renewable energy.

The CWI argues that there is no long term solution to the environmental crisis on the basis of private profit. Competitive markets downgrade the environment. We need a democratic plan of production, in harmony with the environment, throughout the world.

There were many other interesting contributions to the discussion, including from Hong Kong, France, Bolivia, Venzuela, Brazil, Israel, Russia, Nigeria and India.

Tom from the US explained how the protests in Wisconsin were a small indication of the fighting spirit of workers; an upsurge from below against attacks on the trade unions, pensions and other social benefits. The protests included thousands of unorganised workers and young people.

The election of right-wing governors, last November, has escalated the attacks on workers. The Democrats in many areas are using the Tea Party as a cover for their attacks on workers.

In Wisconsin, Socialist Alternative supporters called for a one-day general strike, whereas the union leadser argued that further action would “risk losing popular support”and refused to build the action.

But Wisconsin was one battle in a war – the next battles will be on a national level. The working class are being asked to pay for the crisis on Wall Street. The CWI is arguing in the trade unions for independent candidates against the cuts.
Ireland

In southern Ireland, Joe Higgins, a Socialist Party TD (member of the Irish Parliament) hit the headlines this week responding to the Fine Gael/Labour government’s announcement of a new €100 a year ’household tax’. Joe Higgins and the Socialist Party call for a mass campaign on non-payment and have called a national forum on 10 September to organise that struggle. This got blanket coverage in the media. In contrast, a Sinn Fein TD, quoted in the press, warned that “a boycott is very dangerous”.

Summing up the discussion, Clare Doyle from the CWI International Secretariat, observed that the CWI has members in more countries than ever before and that there were more of those represented at the CWI School.

It was clear from the discussion that the ideas of struggle and revolution are spreading. Capitalism is in such a deep and prolonged crisis that the ruling elite in every country is worried about the future. One glaring indication of the depth of the crisis is the record price of gold.

Dictatorships worldwide were shaken by the fall of Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia. Futher strikes and protests will erupt, often despite of the trade union leaders. Our task in the CWI is to build our forces and a leadership worthy of the sacrifice and fighting spirit of those workers.



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The rising power of Chinese globalisation

So i've just finnished watching this weeks programme of The Chinese are coming from last night which i blogged about last week about how the Chinese were exploiting Africa and African workers in its pursuit of global dominance.

This weeks show was very interesting as they went to South America and Brazil in particular showing the absolute devestation of large areas of the Amazon rainforest where Chinese and Brazilian companies have got together to extract large amounts of whardood out of the forest area. THe programme and the guy who was presenting the show i dont remember his name sorry, Justin i think it was traveled with a Greenpeace activists in a helicopter over the land where such huge deforestation has taken place and still is taking place across Brazil.

The programme also visited a small indigenous tribe in the rainforest, one of the few remaining in the rainforest there in Brazil. Although this tribes land has been protected by the Brazilian government the area of the forest where they do a lot of their hunting is under huge threat from deforestation and charcoal kilns being set up all over the place near where they hunt.

The programme highlited some excellent humanitarian issues and exploitations which stood out for me. The huge iron ore mines some of the biggest in the world are in Brazil and as China demands huge amounts of steel now to build its fast growing econmy and its new cities popping up every dahy pretty much it has turned to Brazil and its better quality iron ore. But the devestation and exploitation occuring for this to happen is just unreal. It frankly scares me what China is doing to places like the Amazon jungle which is effectively the lungs of the planet.

As later in the show a guy rightly said the British in their quest for imperialism with their own British Empire back in the day was just as blunt and devastating in their quest for domination in country after country.

The Chinese product which we all know so well in Britain today is flooding the worlds markets now and even in say Brazil there are chinese shops selling chinese products to Brazilians. This has a hugely negative impact on the local Brazilian economy and its people. The Brazilians may benifit in the short term from dirt cheap products possibly not of same quality as their own home made products but as with most consumers the cheaper the better it seems.

The rise of China is being felt hugely now in America, The United States as others call it. The impact of a rising China is having a big impact and this was shown when Justin visited a school in California where young pupils aged 10 to 13 were learning basic Mandorin/Chinese for want of a better word.

This practise was met with anger by parents and local campaingers who felt the influence of China is becoming too much and they wanted to fight back. This struck a worrying chord with me as the people they interviewed. Redneck Americans i could only make out were slagging off commonism and Chinas attempt to corrupt young American school children into their ways. This struck me of a little like waht the Tea party would be saying and i expect to hear much more of this in the future. The fact is and a one of the leading foreign affairs speakers in America was interviewed eleuded to it is not that Americans are scared of Chinas commonism it is the fact Americans are more scared of China's capitalism . Very telling really as the fact that America and teh majority of the western world are in economic down turn the rise of China becomes even more apparant when companies based in the UK and the USA for years including many industrial companies are taking their factories to China where the production costsa nd labour costs are so much more cheaper.

So as a result of our global financial crisis which i have blogged about endlessly on this blog countries like the US and the UK will be facing huge challenges to even to compete against the powerhouse that is China.
Another thing which struck me with the American children in the school i mentioned earlier was the fact that this highlights capitalism even more the fact that Americans will go to this length to as the guy even put it who was running the class's to enable the next generation to compete says it all. It is all profit over people now. I really do think America could drive itself into the ground trying to compete with a massive and ever powerful China. I think China is one step ahead of the game in so many ways. It will be hard to see this ever swinging back now. The tide is turning i'm afraid and like it or not China is here to stay and will be the next super power on the world stage.

This is why alot of countries, including our own are sucking up majorly to the Chinese for work and business opputunities. We sent David Cameron our prime minister on a envoy trip with alot of British business leaders in a attempt to bring good things between Britain and China in terms of business relations.

I really dont think China see us as a big player anymore. Its america they have their sights on. This was no more apparent with the Chinese military becoming armed and flexing its military might by investing hugely in misiles and military technology whether they intend to use these one day i really do hope not for everyones sake. But their long range misiles can already reach Taiwan, Japan and even a lot of the South Pacific Ocean. Worrying indeed if this ever gets to anything.

My last point was about this idea of a potential trade war between America and China which i may do a blogpost on itself one day as i think it will deserve one. But just to make the point that America has already started the economic fightback against dirt cheap Chinese workers and products by slapping import tax's on Chinese products. China has retaliated by doing the same to American chicken feed for example so i will say watch this space as i can see a real all out trade war kicking off there in a few years time.

So all in all i've really enjoyed this series of documentaries and i've tried to fill you in on the show if you havent seen it. If you havent yet i do recommend catching it on the BBC I player called The Chinese are coming. really worth a watch about possibly how the world will look in the next century onwards as the balance of power economically shifts eastward.

China's influences around the world today

After just watching this excellent documentary on bbc 2 called the chinese are coming
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00ykxg9/The_Chinese_Are_Coming_Episode_1/

i thought i'd do a blog about it.

What i witnessed in the documentary was very worrying i thought. From a human perspective the amount of human exploitation going on was scarey. Millions of Chinese capitalists/entrepreneurs are moving to the continent of Africa and the documentary visits Brazil next week where we get to find out waht the chinese influence is having there.

From the documentary they took you to places and examples of chinese involvement. From the chicken farmers in Zambia and the chinese chickens being sold incrediably cheap and mass produced virtually smashing the market for Zambians to even compete to the copper mines up in the Democratic Republic of Congo where there is terrible working conditions for workers there, African workers who work 11 + hours a day there in poor, cramped and often deadly conditions.

There has been protests about pay and conditions for working like anywhere around the world would have. But you hear on the documentary that chinese managers have ended up shooting protesters due to their refusal to work and get on with their jobs in awful conditions.

Right throughout the programme we are reminded how much power and buying power the new China has. What used to be a very insular so called commonist state is now becoming one of the biggest if not the biggest capitalist exploitators in the world.

China is fast over taking the USA and the rest of the world put together.

I havent read Gordon Browns the crash book at all yet but one of the best lines from it i have heard is that he estimates Chinas consumer power once at full capacity will be the equilavent to two United States of America's.

If we stop to think about that for one second, that is scarey and beyond comprehension. The damage that consumtion will have on the planet as a whole will surely drive it to its eventual destruction unless this is curbed.

But what can we do ? there is very little i feel now, China is growing at such a alarming rate and with other big developing countries such as India too the west is going to struggle to compete and keep its power in the global stage.

The documentary continueing next week will be visiting America to find out how scared they are that they will be over taken and pale into the distance with a ever growing China. This will be interesting to hear i think.

As a socialist i am appauled at the rate and extent of China's exploitation around the world and in such poor continents like Africa. They do not see a chance to change Africa for the better they only see it as a vast market and a vast potential profit for their huge business's back home in China.

This in my view is capitalism at its very worst. Wher ea global super power is exploiting the poor in another continent and several countries for their own personal gain.

Sure dont get me wrong local Africans may have benifitted a little from the jobs the chinese have created. But alot of the jobs have gone to chinese workers who have been shipped over from mainland China as they are quicker and more efficient workers apparently. This again is not helping African countries at all. All of the profits and tax is going back to China. Some of the tax will be paid to the local governments in those countries of course but as we well know in this country tax avoidance is something the capitailists specialise in it seems.

Lastly waht also worried me a lot too was the fact that China is very closely linked now to Zimbabwe and Robert Mugabe who as we well know has a awful record on human rights and has had sanctions leveled at him by the west for decades.

Yet China feels it can do business with him and his awful regieme. One of the most corrupt and torrturers and awful dictators on the planet is cuddling up to one of the worlds super powers in the face of western condemnation is a very worrying thing indeed.

So i do reccomend if you can watch this documentary which is also on next week as it is a very interesting outlook of things to come for Africa, China and the rest of the world. Which will in turn affect all of us.