The long term implications of last week’s budget

Many people have described last week’s budget as against the young and for the pensioners I think this miss's the glaring point that it was for me probably the most class based pro elite budget George Osborne has come to the house of commons with to date. The long term implications for this budget and what it could do to the economy could be wide and quite stark. I do think the grounds are being laid now for the next economic crisis around the globe and the UK will not be able to avoid this so much this time. China which has a huge shadow banking system worth an estimated 50% of GDP is very unstable and that isn’t starting to mention the USA with its huge debt overhang and the euro crisis which on the face of it seems like it has gone away although things are still not right across the single currency. We have seen austerity budget after austerity budget since 20011 from the coalition government and even on George Osborne’s own omission he has failed to eliminate the deficit this parliament which he promised to do. The reason why our loyal opposition is not making more of this you ask? Well they too are wedded to the same financial path of austerity as the Tories and the lib dems. They are all quite literally in this case all in it together. Some may think the recent "recovery" if you can call it that is cause for optimism but I’d be far more cautious personally. "The scars of 2008 remain and the UK economy is in big trouble with austerity and declining living standards here to stay. Below are five things about this year’s budget; a document which outlines a ‘recovery’ based on presumptions that, quite simply, aren’t going to happen 1. Low interest rates are setting the stage for another bubble just like the one that preceded the crisis of 2008. Yesterday Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, criticised the BoE and his predecessor, Mervyn King, when he said that its almost exclusive focus on low inflation meant it had failed to also keep an eye on financial stability. In other words the BoE had no problem stoking bubbles with low interest rates if that meant it also kept a lid on inflation. Interestingly enough Carney also pointed out that “It doesn’t take a genius to see that similar risks exist today”. He noted how risks were brewing because of the current period of of ultra-low interest rates – historically without precedent – saying that this could breed “potential complacency and excessive risk-taking” in financial markets. Sound familiar? Near 0% interest rates are necessary for any growth at all in the UK at the moment but they are also creating similar conditions which led to the last financial crisis. 2. The OBR is plucking numbers from the air on projected productivity gains (again). The economy can grow for a while yet, especially if unemployment falls to 5-6%. Alongside big numbers entering work (and workfare) is however the unresolved (and often ignored) problem of falling productivity. If and when unemployment does fall as low as 5-6% productivity *will have* to increase for growth to continue. The Bank of England expects productivity (output per hour worked) to go up in the next quarter as does the Office for Budget Responsibility. Indeed the OBR is today saying that they anticipate 1.2% productivity growth in 2014 and 2.2% growth the following year. The only problem is that this’ is completely at odds with all the data since 2008 and all of the BoE’s predictions over the same period. Where do those numbers come from? My guess is that it’s a case of the OBR and the Bank of England collectively sitting on their hands and saying ‘productivity has to go up sooner or later, right?’ For more on why productivity matters for any prospective economic ‘growth’ check out the recent video we did for #NovaraTV 3. Its also making ridiculous claims on future wage growth. Sooner or later the Bank of England is going to have to increase interest rates. That will probably happen later this year and if wages are still not keeping up with inflation by then (as has been the case for the last six years), consumer demand - and growth – is likely to take a hit. If wages don’t grow this year and rates go up, even by half a percent, that has huge consequences for the economy. As I recently wrote on the LRB blog: “Late last year the bank reported that average outstanding mortgage debt remains high, at £87,000, and that any rate rise not accompanied by an increase in real wages would cause serious problems. The number of households ‘most at risk of financial distress’ would double to nearly one in six if their mortgage rates went up by 2.5 per cent and their incomes did not improve.” Wages have been in decline for six years. If it stays that way and interest rates begin to inch back towards their historical average (even that of the recent past) the government has big problems. Wage growth is now crucial and without it any increase in interest rates might prove politically difficult. Furthermore the projected increases in household consumption - around 2.5% between 2014-18 – make little sense if interest rates are going to go up even a few percent. 4. … and on exports. The OBR expects export growth of 2.6% in 2014, rising to 4.7% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016. In 2012 exports of goods and services increased by 1.1% (with imports increasing by 3.1%), while in 2013 that figure was 0.8%. That was in the context of reasonable global growth with the US and the BRIC economies seeing more demand than they probably will after 2015. In spite of that the OBR is projecting increases in UK exports not seen in the last several decades. That is all within a context where one of the UK’s biggest exports - oil – is seeing falling output. The projected numbers on UK exports - averaging around 5% over the period 2014-18 – is utter nonsense and without precedent. Seen alongside falling North Sea output I would argue it is impossible. While industry surveys have been pointing to increased export orders for a while, Samuel Tombs, an economist at Capital Economics, claimed these have been “misleadingly upbeat . . . we would not place too much weight on them”. The OBR is making claims for the next half a decade on the back of confidence surveys and figures for very short period – it’s a bit like when your mate shows you a video of a 12 year old wonder-kid on YouTube saying they are going to be better than Cristiano Ronaldo. 5. …and yeah, on fixed investment. Business investment is still 26% lower than it was in 2008 and while there was a dramatic increase in business investment in the final quarter of 2013 – 8.5% – that was the outlier in the data, not the norm. The OBR is now confidently predicting that kind of growth in business investment not just for the next three months, or even the next year, but all the way through to 2018. Compare that to 0.7% growth in business investment in 2012 or, worse still, the 0.5% contraction in 2013. It’s a bit like saying that your best striker scored a hat-trick in the last match of the season and is therefore going to score 150 goals next year. Clutching at straws doesn’t do it justice. The UK, in spite of a massive currency devaluation in 2008, still has a major trade deficit and if there is any truth in this year’s budget it is the realisation that the UK is not going to become a net exporter any time soon. Alongside that massive trade deficit – and exports of goods fell in the three months to November last year – is a budget deficit of over £100 billion. The Treasury is now saying that that deficit will be eliminated by 2019 with a small surplus being run that year – a ‘return to normal’. This is of course complete nonsense: the UK has only run five budget surpluses since 1980 and that was with the bonanza of North Sea oil and the cash garnered from privatisation of, well, pretty much everything. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that budget surpluses - without outlandish projections of growth, investment and productivity gains – are impossible. Final point. This data states that by 2020 households will be as indebted as they were when the economy tanked it in 2007/08. Less ‘march of the makers’ more march of the mickey-takers." 5 things about this year’s budget came from the excellent Aaron Bastani Over at novara media on residence Fm every Friday afternoons. Always a top listen http://wire.novaramedia.com/2014/03/front-bubble-and-bluff-5-things-about-budget2014/

The worst is yet to come

I thought i'd share a excellent article which featured in socialism today a monthly publication of more in depth look at articles from our party. I foundt his a interesting read and shows we have not seen the start of this crisis barely and it is bound to get a lot worse before getting better.


The following article is by Lynn Walsh a good comrade in the labour and trade union movement for many years now.

Lynn Walsh, Editor of Socialism Today

The Con-Dem chancellor, George Osborne, claims his budget (24 March) is the "most pro-growth budget for a generation". But the British economy is barely crawling along, and the budget will do nothing to promote growth.

The government previously predicted 2.3% growth of gross domestic product (GDP - value of the total output of goods and services) for 2011. Now, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts meagre growth of 1.7% of GDP for 2011. Even that may prove to be optimistic given the scale of spending cuts and tax increases.

Consumer spending, which has been the locomotive of the British economy over recent years, is falling. This is the chilling effect of job losses, escalating prices, and fear of what is to come. The former boss of Asda supermarket, Andy Bond, warns that worse is yet to come. "You’re kidding yourself if you think the worst is over and we’ve had a consumer recession - it’s ahead of us." The bosses of big supermarkets and high street stores, like Dixons and Mothercare, are warning of reduced sales and company profits.

"The economy," comments the Financial Times (6 April), "has been much weaker over the past six months than almost any economist expected." It was "practically stagnant over the past two quarters even before the impact of higher inflation and deeper spending cuts, according to a respected economics research group [National Institute of Economic and Social Research]."

As bad as they are, the Con-Dem cuts have so far merely been nibbling at public services: "The deeper cuts will bite with increased severity over the coming years." (Financial Times editorial, 25 March) Osborne’s fraudulent ’expansionary austerity’ is going to be austerity, austerity, austerity.

Squeezed incomes
Living standards have already been severely hit by inflation and squeezed wages. Prices are rising by 5.1% a year, according to the RPI (retail prices index, which includes housing costs).

At the same time, wages are only increasing by 2%, which means a 3% fall in real (inflation-adjusted) wages. Every 1% fall in real wages means a loss of £250 a year. This has resulted in the first fall in disposable income for over three decades, and there is likely to be a further fall in 2011.

The BBC Panorama programme recently carried out a survey of actual take-home pay (BBC News, 28 March). This showed that, on average, workers are taking home £1,088 less a year than two years ago. Their real pay has fallen by 5% since the beginning of 2009, which was half way through the recession.

The sharpest drop in real pay was in the construction industry, where it was £99 a month less. In the public sector, average pay was £45 a month less, while in the retail sector it was £41 a month less.

Privatising debt
One of the most alarming predictions for the next few years is for a huge rise in household debt. The Con-Dem government is aiming to cut public debt by £43 billion. At the same time, the OBR estimates that private-household debt (including mortgages and credit card debt) will rise by a staggering £245 billion. With increased unemployment, squeezed wages, higher prices and taxes, people will borrow more simply to survive.

In effect, this is the privatisation of the state debt, a huge share of which came from the nationalisation of bank losses. Now, spending cuts and tax increases will push millions deeper into debt, throwing a huge burden onto working class families.

By 2015, according to the OBR, debt as a percentage of household income will increase from the current 160% to 175%. In hard figures, this means a rise from an average of £58,000 debt to £66,291 by 2015.

Petrol tax
Faced with explosive public anger over the soaring price of petrol and diesel, Osborne cut fuel duty by 1p a litre and postponed a further 3p rise until January 2012. Undoubtedly, the government fears the possibility of another fuel price protest on the lines of September 2000, when lorry drivers and farmers blockaded oil refineries and jammed motorways. At that time, protests were encouraged by the Tory opposition, but new protests would now pose a threat to the Con-Dem government.

However, the 20% VAT on fuel will remain, and pump prices will no doubt continue to rise as a result of the rise in world oil prices, due to the crisis in the Middle East and North Africa.

To pay for the fuel duty cut, Osborne has raised taxes on oil production. The windfall profits tax on UK oil and gas production will increase from 20% to 32%, which is expected to bring in an additional £2 billion. Despite their increased profits from the 35% increase in oil prices over the last five months, the oil companies are screaming about this very limited tax increase, peanuts to these giant corporations. Malcolm Webb, chief executive of Oil and Gas UK, said: "This change in the tax regime will decrease investment, increase imports and drive UK jobs to other areas of the world."

This is a barely disguised threat of a ’strike of capital’ if the government increases its tax on oil production. They are unlikely to carry this out, at this time, however, because of the immensely profitable reserves that remain in the North Sea, especially given the fact that oil has now risen to around $120 a barrel.

Nevertheless, it is an indication of the likely reaction of big business, like the banks, to the threat of a ’Robin Hood tax’ proposed by the TUC. Without measures to take control of big business and mobilise mass support for such measures, big business will attempt to sabotage any such steps through withholding investment, etc.

Heading for disaster
The Con-Dem government’s leading economic policy guru, Oliver Letwin, has revealed the private discussions of Con-Dem ministers. "Leading up to the recent budget, we took the view collectively in cabinet that we faced an immediate national crisis in the form of less growth and jobs than we needed." (The Guardian, 31 March) Nothing in Osborne’s budget will overcome this crisis, which will deepen in the coming months.

In response to the budget’s supposedly pro-growth measures, the ’independent’ OBR concluded: "We do not believe there is sufficiently strong evidence to justify changing our trend growth assumption in light of policy measures announced in budget 2011."

It is predicting a mere 1.7% growth in GDP for 2011. At the same time, unemployment is projected to continue to an appalling 2.52 million or 8.2% of the workforce. This includes over a million unemployed young people.

The Con-Dem government’s aim is to reduce the government’s budget deficit to near zero by 2014-15. This is an unrealistic objective even from the point of view of big business and their system - and is likely to prove counter-productive. It is a doctrinaire policy dictated by the interests of the big banks and wealthy speculators, who manipulate bond markets in search of speculative profits.

Wiping out the budget deficit depends on faster economic growth, which is why Osborne continually claims he is promoting "expansionary austerity" through pro-growth measures.

His budget, however, did not impress the financial markets that much. The rating agency, Moodys, which assesses the credit status of borrowers, including governments, warned that "slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation could cause the UK’s debt metrics to deteriorate to a point that would be inconsistent with a AAA rating."

Near zero growth or even a new recession would mean even higher unemployment and reduced tax revenues. The Con-Dems’ savage austerity policy could then result in an increase in the deficit, the worst of all worlds.

The so-called ’expansionary austerity’ cannot provide a way out for sickly British capitalism. The crisis referred to by Letwin can only deepen. The Con-Dem government has already been shaken by mass opposition, especially the mighty 26 March TUC demonstration in London. It has been forced to partially reverse the abolition of education maintenance allowance, and to announce a ’natural break’ on the savaging of the NHS through accelerated privatisation.

The 26 March demonstration was only a beginning. It should be the prelude to further action, especially coordinated public sector strikes against cuts, a massive weekday demonstration, and a 24-hour general strike.

Black Wednesday budget
There are 44 changes in tax and benefits in Osborne’s budget. With such a complex tax/benefit system it is very hard to calculate their exact effect. But one thing is certain: most of the changes will cut the incomes of working-class families. The government’s claim that everyone - apart from the rich - will benefit is completely false.

One organisation, Credit Action, calculates that, on average, the changes will reduce household income by at least £200 a year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) reckons that the average family income is expected to still be lower in 2013 than it was in 2008, making it the biggest five-year drop for more than 40 years. The IFS also calculates that the typical pensioner household has seen its real annual income fall by 2.4% (£456) since 2008.

However, these estimates come before further price rises, job losses, squeezed pay levels, and benefit cuts. The Centre for Economic and Business Research reckons the higher cost of living in 2011 will mean that the average family will be £910 worse off this year - the tightest squeeze on finances since 1921.

This year’s budget, moreover, is a supplement to last year’s horrendous Con-Dem spending review which spelt out £81 billion cuts and £33 billion tax raises by 2013.

The basic personal tax allowance (the threshold below which no income tax is paid) is to rise by £1,000 to £7,475, which means around 500,000 workers will not pay income tax.

This small gain, however, will be wiped out for many by the loss of services through cuts and reduced benefits. In particular, changes in tax credits and a freezing of child allowances will mean a sharp cut for working parents.

•Many middle class families will be squeezed by the lowering of the threshold for the higher (40%) tax rate from £37,401 to £35,000, which will mean around 750,000 workers paying significantly more tax (as well as higher national insurance contributions). Osborne tried to provide some populist window dressing through a number of taxes aimed at big business and the wealthy.
•The levy on windfall bank profits (heavily subsidised by state support during the crisis) is being marginally increased. North Sea oil companies will have to pay another £2 billion on their soaring profits.
•There will be a tax on passengers in private jets, and the stamp duty on the purchase of houses over £1 million will be raised to 5%. At the same time, however, there are concessions on stamp duty for developers and landlords buying multiple properties.
•The fee paid by wealthy overseas visitors to register as ’non-doms’ will be raised to £50,000, but they will continue to enjoy the privilege of paying no UK tax on their offshore profits.
•In the small print of the budget, there is a whole series of tax allowances for big business. Big companies will be able to offset against tax investments in enterprise zones, research and development, and many forms of new capital investment.
•Above all, corporation tax, currently 28%, has been cut by 2% with the promise of further cuts to 23% in three years’ time.
•Osborne has also promised that the 50% top rate of tax on those earning over £150,000 will be reduced in the future. This highlights an important aspect of the Con-Dems’ policy. Many of the current taxes levied on big business and the wealthy minority are regarded as temporary, to be reduced in the future. On the other hand, the cuts in public spending, with the massive loss of services and public sector jobs, are regarded as part of the permanent reduction of the public sector - in other words, a permanent blow to the living standards and well-being of many millions of workers.

Tories plans still not working

News today is telling us the British economy shrank by 0.5% in fourth quarter of 2010 instead of the 0.6% previously reported by the Office of National Statistics


Over the last three months of 2010, the total value of the goods the UK imported was £26.8bn higher than the total value of the goods it exported.

However, the UK exports more services than it imports, so the total goods and services trade gap is narrower, at almost £10.5bn.

The trade figures was released alongside the final revision of GDP for the fourth quarter of the year, which put it at -0.5%, slightly down from the previous estimate of -0.6%.


All this must look worrying news for George Osbourne and his tory friends inteh cabinet. It is even more worrying to those of us at the bottom of the scale who have no say in what happens at teh top. Decisions to cut spending now is looking increasingly foolish. No one is denying teh deficit has to be dealt with but these massive cuts on the working class which are far too disproportional in my view are simply unfair. As i've previously stated i'm against all cuts as a collection of tax evaders totalling roughly 120 billion pounds would more than cover our deficit. But will the tories do this ? i doubt it somehow, It would mean upsetting a lot of their friends in the city and we cant have that now. So the poor and the working class must suffer as usual. Figures like this just bring it home what the tories are doing to this country more harm than good that's for sure.

More figures like these will lead us back into a recession which i feel we're not too far away from now. Any minimal growth last year was carried over from before but now we're running on empty. As socialists we call on nationalising the banks and bringing them into workers ownership, public ownership. Not the semi nationalisation what happened with RBS in 2008 a total nationalisation of all the banks and demand they open their books for transparancy there is evidence that there is plenty of wealth sloshing around at the top lets see more of it used to protect our public services and stop this attack on the working class.