Today it has been confirmed that Britain in the last quarter contracted by 0.2 % GDP meaning that two back to back negative growth figures lands us back in recession. A light one at present but still a recession none the less. Too many this has been on the cards for sometime and to the poorest in society may argue it never felt like we left recession with the misery of cutbacks and tax hikes and inflation all mounting to mean a huge strain on people’s lives and living standards.
The Tories and lib dem government has been in power for two years now and their plan of the phoenix of the private sector rising from the ash’s has simply not happened. We were told we must cut the public sector spending to allow the private sector to grow this hasn’t happened either if anything the public sector borrowing has goes up not down and our deficit is increasing.
The old phrase of its hurting but its not working is very apt here.
Even reformist measures here of investing in jobs socially useful jobs and a mass house building programme would go someway to helping this. But the con-dem government look focused on reducing the deficit the most painful of ways and still may not actually work for them. If anything this is a cocktail of cuts tax’s and inflation which will send us spiralling into endless austerity.
It was always said the definition of insanity was continuing to do what has been proven not to work. So the Tories and labours idea that if cuts don’t work we’ll have some more cuts is just barmy.
A serious shift is needed a ramping up of the tax’s on the very richest in society is needed a wealth tax with other tax’s preventing the rich getting away with not paying for the mistakes of the bankers who were the ones who got us into the position.
What is also needed is a nationalisation programme bringing in the major 150 companies into public ownership properly run democratically by the workers with all of the profits made ploughed back into the public purse to invest in more jobs, services and the things that people need to live. Not just for the benefit of a rich minority.
Its time the argument on austerity is won once and for all and a major shift to change society for the benefit of the many is fought.
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Showing posts with label double dip recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label double dip recession. Show all posts
Wednesday, 25 April 2012
Sunday, 8 April 2012
Europe and capitalism still on very shakey ground as financial crisis continues
So as the financial crisis inside the EU intensifies I thought I’d look at a recent socialism today article
By Lynn Walsh, Editor, Socialism Today, monthly magazine of the Socialist Party (CWI England & Wales)
The European economies are in the throes of an austerity-induced recession, which is likely to be protracted.
The Greek bailout 2.0 has averted a default, for the moment. The new fiscal pact is a straitjacket that will aggravate Europe’s austerity-induced recession. Ireland’s referendum threatens to shake the EU and the eurozone. There is growing discord among EU leaders. Far from over, workers’ struggles against capitalist austerity will erupt on an even bigger scale. LYNN WALSH reports.
AFTER SEVEN months of wrangling, the troika, the Greek government and private bondholders have agreed to a second bail-out package. As a condition for the package, the Greek coalition, led by the technocrat Lucas Papademos and supported by Pasok and New Democracy, has agreed to further savage austerity measures. Leaders of the troika – the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund – claim that this package will stabilise the eurozone. But the savage austerity measures they have imposed on Greece will actually increase the burden of debt and ensure another default further down the line.
Greece will save around €100 billion through a managed default that has been agreed or imposed on the private bondholders. However, it is mainly a refinancing exercise rather than a wiping out of debt. Greece will receive bail-out funds of €130 billion or more – but these are loans from the European institutions and the IMF. The terms are less onerous than the previous bonds but, nevertheless, are new debt that will prove unsustainable. Most of the new bail-out funds will be used to recapitalise the private Greek banks (which have also suffered losses on the bond exchange) and to pay off previous debt and interest charges.
Official public holders of Greek bonds (the ECB, eurozone central banks, the IMF, etc) will not be suffering a haircut. While it may appear that the private sector is losing out, they are really “the lucky ones”, as commentator Nouriel Roubini says. They are getting €30 billion upfront as a sweetener (paid from the €130bn new bail-out funds). In 2008, all Greece’s debt was held by the private sector. Now, 77% of the debt is held by the institutions of the troika.
“The reality is that private creditors got a very sweet deal while most actual and future losses have been transferred to the official creditors”. “The reality is that most of the gains in good times – and until the PSI [public-sector involvement] – were privatised while most of the losses have been now socialised. Taxpayers of Greece’s official creditors, not private bondholders, will end up paying for most of the losses deriving from Greece’s past, current and future insolvency”. (Roubini, Financial Times, 7 March)
Moreover, eurozone private banks have received massive support from the ECB in the form of cheap (1% interest) three-year loans which, for the time being, will cushion the banks against their losses.
Greece’s Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelo (Pasok)
The second bail-out package will merely postpone the crunch for Greece. A report issued by the troika shows that, at best, Greece will still have a national debt of over 120% by 2020. This presages further drastic cuts in public spending, the sacking of 150,000 public-sector workers, and €45 billion privatisations by 2020. But if things go awry, the burden of debt (according to the troika) could peak at 170% in 2014 and still be 145% in 2020. “The new €130 billion that the official creditors have agreed to lend may not be enough even to cover Greece’s debt service [repayments to fund interest charges]”. (Financial Times editorial, 21 February)
“Greece is just not in a sustainable position on several counts”, commented Mats Persson, director of the think-tank Open Europe. “The extreme level of youth unemployment shows that the austerity cuts are fighting off any chance the country has of recovering. It will get worse; there’s no way Greece can get out of this”. (Daily Telegraph, 9 March) “‘It will happen’, said Stephane Deo, a UBS economist, referring to the next Greek crisis. ‘The market is already pricing in’ a second round of restructuring”.
From an economic point of view, the burden of debt in Greece is unsustainable. GDP fell nearly 7% in 2011, and is expected to fall by between 4% and 6% this year. Despite a series of general strikes and mass protests, the former Pasok government and, subsequently, the Pasok/New Democracy coalition appear to have got away with imposing devastating austerity measures. But, so far we have only seen act one. A recent comment in a Morgan Stanley bulletin recognises the likelihood of further social explosions: “Several episodes of social unrest have shown all too clearly that the extra-economic dimension of this tough adjustment programme is at times unpredictable”. (Greek Debt Restructuring, 24 February) In fact, the working class and middle class will be compelled to intensify the struggle against austerity measures that spell utter social-economic catastrophe.
Bundesbank president, Jens Weidman, has asked: What is the exit strategy? The ECB already has over €3 trillion of bonds and other collateral on its books (more than the US Federal Reserve). To reverse the liquidity injection it would have to sell a large part of these securities. But it is far from certain that this would be easily done, as many of the securities are considered too risky by private banks and finance houses.
The private banks are becoming more and more dependent on the supply of cheap credit from the central bank and from eurozone national banks. These public institutions have the first call on assets in the event of defaults. This in turn makes private investors wary of putting their capital into the private banks, as they would not get priority in the event of a default. In other words, they would bear the main losses of any banking collapse. This is giving rise to a situation where the ECB and the central banks are propping up zombie banks throughout the eurozone.
TWENTY-FIVE EU governments (with Britain and the Czech Republic opting out) have agreed a new fiscal pact. This is a legal straitjacket that aims to restrict governments’ budget deficits and national debt. However, it includes no measures that would concretely advance the eurozone towards a fiscal union. The pact limits ‘structural’ budget deficits to 0.5% of GDP (leaving room for arguments on the definition of ‘structural’). If the national debt of participating governments goes above 60% of GDP they will be compelled to take drastic, rapid measures to reduce the debt. In reality, these are completely unachievable targets for most EU countries. In so far as governments attempt to meet them, they will prolong or deepen the European recession. On the other hand, there are already indications – e.g. Spain – that governments will be forced to repudiate these unrealistic targets.
Jean Claude Juncker, head of the group of 17 euro zone finance ministers, with his Spanish counterpart.
Many national leaders believed that the pact was a necessary cover for German chancellor, Angela Merkel, to get political support for further bail-out measures in Europe. They assumed that the quid pro quo for agreeing to the pact would be an increase in the bail-out funds available to shore up the finances of EU/eurozone governments. The German government and Bundesbank, however, are still intransigently opposed to new measures to support governments with shaky finances.
WITHIN HOURS OF the agreement on the pact, the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, unilaterally announced that Spain would not be committed to the 2012 target of reducing its budget deficit to 4.4% of GDP (which would involve €5bn additional cuts). He announced that Spain would aim at reducing the deficit to 5.8% of GDP (claiming Spain would still aim for the 3% target by 2013). Rajoy bluntly told EU leaders: “This is a sovereign decision by Spain”. He said that he had not consulted other European leaders: “I will inform them in April”.
Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy with German chancellor Angela Merkel in January
Rajoy clearly fears the prospect of a volcanic social explosion if they cut as deeply as the eurogroup are demanding. Spanish GDP is expected to fall by at least 1% in 2012. Unemployment is already officially 24%, while youth unemployment is over 40%.
Other eurozone leaders are furious, but what can they do? The recent violent clashes between police and protesters in Valencia and Barcelona are an indication of the struggles which are coming. The eurosceptic Daily Telegraph commented: “At a stroke Rajoy has demonstrated breathtaking defiance, heart-warming patriotism and a different path to recovery. But even worse, he pointed out the elephant in the room: the eurozone is a monetary union, not a political one, and if members want to run their own affairs, neither Brussels nor Berlin can stop them”.
If the signs of growth in the US economy are sustained, it will possibly cushion the European economy, allowing a slight growth of exports to the US. However, the best scenario for Europe is likely to be a relatively mild recession, but with the prospect of prolonged stagnation. Unemployment is horrendous. Officially, over 24 million workers are jobless in the EU, while youth unemployment has soared above 50% in Spain.
THE SECOND GREEK bailout has temporarily stabilised the Greek government and defused the default time bomb ticking under the eurozone. But it is essentially a temporary fix which does nothing to resolve the underlying problems. It will not break the vicious spiral of repeated austerity packages, ever rising mass unemployment, falling tax revenues, and recession. Neither the eurozone leaders nor the G20 leaders have any policies to overcome this bleak situation.
It is clear that the EUrozone and beyond is on very shakey ground with littleprospect of this changing anytime soon. Capiatlism is bankrupt of ideas out of this crisis of its own making and is still looking to make us all pay for it.
Both the EU and the eurozone have already failed in their key objectives. The European Union was intended to overcome national differences, and particularly bury the historic antagonism between Germany and other European states. In the recent period, however, Germany has been seen as a dictatorial power, imposing harsh economic policies on the weaker European states. This has reinforced an upsurge of nationalism and xenophobia, with the growth of anti-immigrant, racist trends. At the same time, the eurozone was intended to accelerate the economic integration of EU countries. In practice, it has intensified the divergence between the stronger economies and the weaker countries, especially those of the Mediterranean ‘periphery’. The eurozone has become a time bomb under the whole world economy.
The idea that capitalist states could overcome their national limitations and achieve an integrated, harmonious Europe has been shown to be utopian. The unification of Europe is a task for the working class, which can only be achieved on the basis of workers’ democracy and socialist economic planning.
By Lynn Walsh, Editor, Socialism Today, monthly magazine of the Socialist Party (CWI England & Wales)
The European economies are in the throes of an austerity-induced recession, which is likely to be protracted.
The Greek bailout 2.0 has averted a default, for the moment. The new fiscal pact is a straitjacket that will aggravate Europe’s austerity-induced recession. Ireland’s referendum threatens to shake the EU and the eurozone. There is growing discord among EU leaders. Far from over, workers’ struggles against capitalist austerity will erupt on an even bigger scale. LYNN WALSH reports.
AFTER SEVEN months of wrangling, the troika, the Greek government and private bondholders have agreed to a second bail-out package. As a condition for the package, the Greek coalition, led by the technocrat Lucas Papademos and supported by Pasok and New Democracy, has agreed to further savage austerity measures. Leaders of the troika – the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund – claim that this package will stabilise the eurozone. But the savage austerity measures they have imposed on Greece will actually increase the burden of debt and ensure another default further down the line.
Greece will save around €100 billion through a managed default that has been agreed or imposed on the private bondholders. However, it is mainly a refinancing exercise rather than a wiping out of debt. Greece will receive bail-out funds of €130 billion or more – but these are loans from the European institutions and the IMF. The terms are less onerous than the previous bonds but, nevertheless, are new debt that will prove unsustainable. Most of the new bail-out funds will be used to recapitalise the private Greek banks (which have also suffered losses on the bond exchange) and to pay off previous debt and interest charges.
Official public holders of Greek bonds (the ECB, eurozone central banks, the IMF, etc) will not be suffering a haircut. While it may appear that the private sector is losing out, they are really “the lucky ones”, as commentator Nouriel Roubini says. They are getting €30 billion upfront as a sweetener (paid from the €130bn new bail-out funds). In 2008, all Greece’s debt was held by the private sector. Now, 77% of the debt is held by the institutions of the troika.
“The reality is that private creditors got a very sweet deal while most actual and future losses have been transferred to the official creditors”. “The reality is that most of the gains in good times – and until the PSI [public-sector involvement] – were privatised while most of the losses have been now socialised. Taxpayers of Greece’s official creditors, not private bondholders, will end up paying for most of the losses deriving from Greece’s past, current and future insolvency”. (Roubini, Financial Times, 7 March)
Moreover, eurozone private banks have received massive support from the ECB in the form of cheap (1% interest) three-year loans which, for the time being, will cushion the banks against their losses.
Greece’s Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelo (Pasok)
The second bail-out package will merely postpone the crunch for Greece. A report issued by the troika shows that, at best, Greece will still have a national debt of over 120% by 2020. This presages further drastic cuts in public spending, the sacking of 150,000 public-sector workers, and €45 billion privatisations by 2020. But if things go awry, the burden of debt (according to the troika) could peak at 170% in 2014 and still be 145% in 2020. “The new €130 billion that the official creditors have agreed to lend may not be enough even to cover Greece’s debt service [repayments to fund interest charges]”. (Financial Times editorial, 21 February)
“Greece is just not in a sustainable position on several counts”, commented Mats Persson, director of the think-tank Open Europe. “The extreme level of youth unemployment shows that the austerity cuts are fighting off any chance the country has of recovering. It will get worse; there’s no way Greece can get out of this”. (Daily Telegraph, 9 March) “‘It will happen’, said Stephane Deo, a UBS economist, referring to the next Greek crisis. ‘The market is already pricing in’ a second round of restructuring”.
From an economic point of view, the burden of debt in Greece is unsustainable. GDP fell nearly 7% in 2011, and is expected to fall by between 4% and 6% this year. Despite a series of general strikes and mass protests, the former Pasok government and, subsequently, the Pasok/New Democracy coalition appear to have got away with imposing devastating austerity measures. But, so far we have only seen act one. A recent comment in a Morgan Stanley bulletin recognises the likelihood of further social explosions: “Several episodes of social unrest have shown all too clearly that the extra-economic dimension of this tough adjustment programme is at times unpredictable”. (Greek Debt Restructuring, 24 February) In fact, the working class and middle class will be compelled to intensify the struggle against austerity measures that spell utter social-economic catastrophe.
Bundesbank president, Jens Weidman, has asked: What is the exit strategy? The ECB already has over €3 trillion of bonds and other collateral on its books (more than the US Federal Reserve). To reverse the liquidity injection it would have to sell a large part of these securities. But it is far from certain that this would be easily done, as many of the securities are considered too risky by private banks and finance houses.
The private banks are becoming more and more dependent on the supply of cheap credit from the central bank and from eurozone national banks. These public institutions have the first call on assets in the event of defaults. This in turn makes private investors wary of putting their capital into the private banks, as they would not get priority in the event of a default. In other words, they would bear the main losses of any banking collapse. This is giving rise to a situation where the ECB and the central banks are propping up zombie banks throughout the eurozone.
TWENTY-FIVE EU governments (with Britain and the Czech Republic opting out) have agreed a new fiscal pact. This is a legal straitjacket that aims to restrict governments’ budget deficits and national debt. However, it includes no measures that would concretely advance the eurozone towards a fiscal union. The pact limits ‘structural’ budget deficits to 0.5% of GDP (leaving room for arguments on the definition of ‘structural’). If the national debt of participating governments goes above 60% of GDP they will be compelled to take drastic, rapid measures to reduce the debt. In reality, these are completely unachievable targets for most EU countries. In so far as governments attempt to meet them, they will prolong or deepen the European recession. On the other hand, there are already indications – e.g. Spain – that governments will be forced to repudiate these unrealistic targets.
Jean Claude Juncker, head of the group of 17 euro zone finance ministers, with his Spanish counterpart.
Many national leaders believed that the pact was a necessary cover for German chancellor, Angela Merkel, to get political support for further bail-out measures in Europe. They assumed that the quid pro quo for agreeing to the pact would be an increase in the bail-out funds available to shore up the finances of EU/eurozone governments. The German government and Bundesbank, however, are still intransigently opposed to new measures to support governments with shaky finances.
WITHIN HOURS OF the agreement on the pact, the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, unilaterally announced that Spain would not be committed to the 2012 target of reducing its budget deficit to 4.4% of GDP (which would involve €5bn additional cuts). He announced that Spain would aim at reducing the deficit to 5.8% of GDP (claiming Spain would still aim for the 3% target by 2013). Rajoy bluntly told EU leaders: “This is a sovereign decision by Spain”. He said that he had not consulted other European leaders: “I will inform them in April”.
Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy with German chancellor Angela Merkel in January
Rajoy clearly fears the prospect of a volcanic social explosion if they cut as deeply as the eurogroup are demanding. Spanish GDP is expected to fall by at least 1% in 2012. Unemployment is already officially 24%, while youth unemployment is over 40%.
Other eurozone leaders are furious, but what can they do? The recent violent clashes between police and protesters in Valencia and Barcelona are an indication of the struggles which are coming. The eurosceptic Daily Telegraph commented: “At a stroke Rajoy has demonstrated breathtaking defiance, heart-warming patriotism and a different path to recovery. But even worse, he pointed out the elephant in the room: the eurozone is a monetary union, not a political one, and if members want to run their own affairs, neither Brussels nor Berlin can stop them”.
If the signs of growth in the US economy are sustained, it will possibly cushion the European economy, allowing a slight growth of exports to the US. However, the best scenario for Europe is likely to be a relatively mild recession, but with the prospect of prolonged stagnation. Unemployment is horrendous. Officially, over 24 million workers are jobless in the EU, while youth unemployment has soared above 50% in Spain.
THE SECOND GREEK bailout has temporarily stabilised the Greek government and defused the default time bomb ticking under the eurozone. But it is essentially a temporary fix which does nothing to resolve the underlying problems. It will not break the vicious spiral of repeated austerity packages, ever rising mass unemployment, falling tax revenues, and recession. Neither the eurozone leaders nor the G20 leaders have any policies to overcome this bleak situation.
It is clear that the EUrozone and beyond is on very shakey ground with littleprospect of this changing anytime soon. Capiatlism is bankrupt of ideas out of this crisis of its own making and is still looking to make us all pay for it.
Both the EU and the eurozone have already failed in their key objectives. The European Union was intended to overcome national differences, and particularly bury the historic antagonism between Germany and other European states. In the recent period, however, Germany has been seen as a dictatorial power, imposing harsh economic policies on the weaker European states. This has reinforced an upsurge of nationalism and xenophobia, with the growth of anti-immigrant, racist trends. At the same time, the eurozone was intended to accelerate the economic integration of EU countries. In practice, it has intensified the divergence between the stronger economies and the weaker countries, especially those of the Mediterranean ‘periphery’. The eurozone has become a time bomb under the whole world economy.
The idea that capitalist states could overcome their national limitations and achieve an integrated, harmonious Europe has been shown to be utopian. The unification of Europe is a task for the working class, which can only be achieved on the basis of workers’ democracy and socialist economic planning.
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
World economy, capitalists unable to stop the turmoil
this is a excellent article on the growing turmoil in the world of capitalism from this week's socialist. The newspaper from the Socialist party where you can find more excellent articles each week at
www.socialistparty.org.uk
As their system continues to slide further into its worst crisis since the 1930s, the frantic efforts of world capitalist leaders to reverse the process are farcical, contradictory and ineffective. "Financial markets at their wits' end", was the headline in the Financial Times.
In a matter of weeks, trillions of dollars have been wiped from equity market values worldwide. The rush out of equities (shares in companies, banks etc) to alleged 'safe havens' of gold is now greater than at the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This indicates the depth of the present crisis which threatens to become a prolonged slump.
The credit-worthiness of the USA, the most powerful economy in the world, has been questioned. Eurozone leaders are stumbling from one summit to another without being able to solve the crisis.
On Friday 5 August, the credit rating agency Standard and Poor (S&P), downgraded US government bonds from AAA to AA+. This, they said, was due to the debacle between Democrats and Republicans over the debt ceiling for the US - now standing at $14 trillion, the highest in the world. These are the very same 'experts' who gave an AAA rating to the sub-prime lending spree in the first place which helped to lay the basis for the present crisis.
Big investors in US 'treasuries', including the Chinese government, are still not likely to move out significantly, but China's official People's Daily newspaper took the opportunity of the S&P assessment to chide the US government with its own interests in mind. It should not "become blind to the great risks that a weak greenback could pose to the world's fragile economic recovery by lifting dollar-denominated commodities prices", it wrote.
Double-dip recession
The S&P found the sums on which it based its assessment were wrong - by $2 trillion - but, pessimistic as they are about growth prospects, they still believed that lenders would have doubts about buying US government bonds. The latest figures for January to July show the US economy already crawling along at a rate of just 0.8%.
The US economy is now almost certainly facing a 'double dip' recession. There are legitimate fears, now widespread, that the austerity measures being imposed in the US and many other countries to tackle high levels of debt, will actually stifle their already weak economic recoveries and plunge them further into crisis.
This is behind the renewed expectations that the US Federal Reserve will announce a new round of 'quantitative easing' (QE - printing money) in response to forecasts of the US having a 50-50 chance of entering recession before the end of the year. But QE1 and QE2 have not solved the problems and it remains to be seen whether a new 'stimulus package' will be sufficient to stem the crisis.
Fears about the future of the world economy have been reflected in the price of gold and oil. Gold - not 'paper value' but a store of real value - is always a favourite 'investment' in uncertain times. Its price has jumped to new nominal records well over $1,720 an ounce and could, in some estimates, go as high as $2,500 by the end of the year.
Another 'safe haven' for investors - the Swiss Franc - has reached in the last month record highs against the euro and the dollar. The 'Swissie' has now moved into negative interest rate territory, which means investors paying the banks to hold their assets safe!
On the other hand, the price of oil has considerably declined. This is because of the grave concerns about downturns in growth leading to a fall in demand.
As the CWI has explained on many occasions, the very feeble recovery in most countries has not been accompanied by any sizeable growth in total output. Apart from some notable exceptions, it did not bring jobs for the tens of millions of unemployed, nor stem what seems like a war on the poor - massive cuts in public spending.
Further cutbacks and downturns in the prospects for young people lie behind the outbursts of anger recently seen on the streets of England. Seriously prepared strikes and general strikes are urgently needed in a series of countries now to stem the attacks on pension rights.
Without the trade union leaders giving a clear lead in the struggle against cuts across Europe and in other countries, clashes with police and attacks on property could erupt in the most deprived urban areas.
A programme of jobs and homes for all has to be accompanied by a struggle for the nationalisation, under democratic workers' control and management, of the banks and big monopolies. This can channel all the anger and frustration of youth and workers against the system.
Crisis measures
On 21 July a special meeting of Eurozone finance ministers agreed another bailout for the Greek government. But within days it was clear this would not solve Greece's underlying problems or prevent a default of its national debt. Before the 21 July agreement can even come into force, it has to be ratified by all of the Eurozone governments, mostly through their parliaments which are not in session during August.
Only two weeks after this, under pressure from the Eurozone leaders, especially Merkel and Sarkozy, the European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to announce new measures to try and prevent the stock markets going into a tail-spin after Friday's news from America! Its previous policy of not buying Italian and Spanish bonds on the open market was reversed.
This reduced, at least temporarily, the rates on these countries' borrowings. However, stock markets remain volatile, reflecting investors' doubts over effective EU measures to solve the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Other discussions have taken place about expanding the powers to intervene by using the €440 billion in the European Financial Stability Fund but they are hampered by the need for unanimity across the zone.
Italy and Spain's governments alone need to find an extra €840 billion over the coming 18 months - more than the total of bailouts already found for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
The ECB measure will ease the situation in relation to the debts of Italy and Spain but the strings attached will bring them into head-on confrontation with their populations.
Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, has tried to give the impression there is no major problem in Italy. But his country has one of the biggest debts as a percentage of GDP (nearly 120%) and an economy which has failed to grow more than a fraction of 1% for the past two decades.
He has now agreed, with his government, to bring forward the deadline by which budget cuts will balance the state books - from the original 2014 (well after the next general election) to 2013 (still after the next election is due!).
Extra austerity measures, nearly double those already announced, have been put through the cabinet by decree. Already, even in a summer period, opposition is mounting. Berlusconi has said he will not stand next time round, but he desperately needs a government in power that will not allow three major court cases against him to proceed.
Spain's prime minister, José Luis RodrÃguez Zapatero, has also declared he will not stand in November's election, sensing the widespread dissatisfaction with his inability to get Spain's economy back into healthy growth.
He has nevertheless agreed to increase austerity measures as a condition of the new loans. The massive level of youth unemployment in Spain and a feeling of utter neglect by politicians have been behind the mass movement of the 'indignados' - young people disillusioned with political parties and looking for radical, even revolutionary solutions.
Richard Hunter, a broker from Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The markets are looking for a concrete plan out of Europe and the US in terms of how they are going to deal with their deficits." But because of private ownership and the states' role in defending the national interests of their own capitalists, a clear plan is something that capitalism, by its very nature, can never provide.
Capitalist anarchy
Trying to control an anarchic and blind system, none of the measures they take seems to stem the downward spiral into the worst crisis since the 1930s.
The measures they take to try and rescue their system will mean yet more cuts and austerity, yet more suffering and anguish for the vast majority of the world's population. The accumulating crises - economic and political - of the last few weeks, have only served to underline the chaotic and wasteful way in which capitalism works or fails to work.
Only 58.1% of Americans of working age now have a real job. Tens of millions of people worldwide are on the scrapheap when they could be producing goods and providing services.
On the basis of public ownership and democratic planning, all the human and physical resources of society could be harnessed for the benefit of the vast majority instead of the increasingly rich minority.
The stranglehold of the banks and capitalist politicians over the lives of millions, in fact, billions, has to be broken. Mass movements, including general strikes, will show the power that the working class can wield in society.
Linked with the energy and anger of the youth, new mass workers' parties can be rapidly built. Confidence in the idea of a socialist alternative to capitalism can and must be renewed without delay.
www.socialistparty.org.uk
As their system continues to slide further into its worst crisis since the 1930s, the frantic efforts of world capitalist leaders to reverse the process are farcical, contradictory and ineffective. "Financial markets at their wits' end", was the headline in the Financial Times.
In a matter of weeks, trillions of dollars have been wiped from equity market values worldwide. The rush out of equities (shares in companies, banks etc) to alleged 'safe havens' of gold is now greater than at the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This indicates the depth of the present crisis which threatens to become a prolonged slump.
The credit-worthiness of the USA, the most powerful economy in the world, has been questioned. Eurozone leaders are stumbling from one summit to another without being able to solve the crisis.
On Friday 5 August, the credit rating agency Standard and Poor (S&P), downgraded US government bonds from AAA to AA+. This, they said, was due to the debacle between Democrats and Republicans over the debt ceiling for the US - now standing at $14 trillion, the highest in the world. These are the very same 'experts' who gave an AAA rating to the sub-prime lending spree in the first place which helped to lay the basis for the present crisis.
Big investors in US 'treasuries', including the Chinese government, are still not likely to move out significantly, but China's official People's Daily newspaper took the opportunity of the S&P assessment to chide the US government with its own interests in mind. It should not "become blind to the great risks that a weak greenback could pose to the world's fragile economic recovery by lifting dollar-denominated commodities prices", it wrote.
Double-dip recession
The S&P found the sums on which it based its assessment were wrong - by $2 trillion - but, pessimistic as they are about growth prospects, they still believed that lenders would have doubts about buying US government bonds. The latest figures for January to July show the US economy already crawling along at a rate of just 0.8%.
The US economy is now almost certainly facing a 'double dip' recession. There are legitimate fears, now widespread, that the austerity measures being imposed in the US and many other countries to tackle high levels of debt, will actually stifle their already weak economic recoveries and plunge them further into crisis.
This is behind the renewed expectations that the US Federal Reserve will announce a new round of 'quantitative easing' (QE - printing money) in response to forecasts of the US having a 50-50 chance of entering recession before the end of the year. But QE1 and QE2 have not solved the problems and it remains to be seen whether a new 'stimulus package' will be sufficient to stem the crisis.
Fears about the future of the world economy have been reflected in the price of gold and oil. Gold - not 'paper value' but a store of real value - is always a favourite 'investment' in uncertain times. Its price has jumped to new nominal records well over $1,720 an ounce and could, in some estimates, go as high as $2,500 by the end of the year.
Another 'safe haven' for investors - the Swiss Franc - has reached in the last month record highs against the euro and the dollar. The 'Swissie' has now moved into negative interest rate territory, which means investors paying the banks to hold their assets safe!
On the other hand, the price of oil has considerably declined. This is because of the grave concerns about downturns in growth leading to a fall in demand.
As the CWI has explained on many occasions, the very feeble recovery in most countries has not been accompanied by any sizeable growth in total output. Apart from some notable exceptions, it did not bring jobs for the tens of millions of unemployed, nor stem what seems like a war on the poor - massive cuts in public spending.
Further cutbacks and downturns in the prospects for young people lie behind the outbursts of anger recently seen on the streets of England. Seriously prepared strikes and general strikes are urgently needed in a series of countries now to stem the attacks on pension rights.
Without the trade union leaders giving a clear lead in the struggle against cuts across Europe and in other countries, clashes with police and attacks on property could erupt in the most deprived urban areas.
A programme of jobs and homes for all has to be accompanied by a struggle for the nationalisation, under democratic workers' control and management, of the banks and big monopolies. This can channel all the anger and frustration of youth and workers against the system.
Crisis measures
On 21 July a special meeting of Eurozone finance ministers agreed another bailout for the Greek government. But within days it was clear this would not solve Greece's underlying problems or prevent a default of its national debt. Before the 21 July agreement can even come into force, it has to be ratified by all of the Eurozone governments, mostly through their parliaments which are not in session during August.
Only two weeks after this, under pressure from the Eurozone leaders, especially Merkel and Sarkozy, the European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to announce new measures to try and prevent the stock markets going into a tail-spin after Friday's news from America! Its previous policy of not buying Italian and Spanish bonds on the open market was reversed.
This reduced, at least temporarily, the rates on these countries' borrowings. However, stock markets remain volatile, reflecting investors' doubts over effective EU measures to solve the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Other discussions have taken place about expanding the powers to intervene by using the €440 billion in the European Financial Stability Fund but they are hampered by the need for unanimity across the zone.
Italy and Spain's governments alone need to find an extra €840 billion over the coming 18 months - more than the total of bailouts already found for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
The ECB measure will ease the situation in relation to the debts of Italy and Spain but the strings attached will bring them into head-on confrontation with their populations.
Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, has tried to give the impression there is no major problem in Italy. But his country has one of the biggest debts as a percentage of GDP (nearly 120%) and an economy which has failed to grow more than a fraction of 1% for the past two decades.
He has now agreed, with his government, to bring forward the deadline by which budget cuts will balance the state books - from the original 2014 (well after the next general election) to 2013 (still after the next election is due!).
Extra austerity measures, nearly double those already announced, have been put through the cabinet by decree. Already, even in a summer period, opposition is mounting. Berlusconi has said he will not stand next time round, but he desperately needs a government in power that will not allow three major court cases against him to proceed.
Spain's prime minister, José Luis RodrÃguez Zapatero, has also declared he will not stand in November's election, sensing the widespread dissatisfaction with his inability to get Spain's economy back into healthy growth.
He has nevertheless agreed to increase austerity measures as a condition of the new loans. The massive level of youth unemployment in Spain and a feeling of utter neglect by politicians have been behind the mass movement of the 'indignados' - young people disillusioned with political parties and looking for radical, even revolutionary solutions.
Richard Hunter, a broker from Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The markets are looking for a concrete plan out of Europe and the US in terms of how they are going to deal with their deficits." But because of private ownership and the states' role in defending the national interests of their own capitalists, a clear plan is something that capitalism, by its very nature, can never provide.
Capitalist anarchy
Trying to control an anarchic and blind system, none of the measures they take seems to stem the downward spiral into the worst crisis since the 1930s.
The measures they take to try and rescue their system will mean yet more cuts and austerity, yet more suffering and anguish for the vast majority of the world's population. The accumulating crises - economic and political - of the last few weeks, have only served to underline the chaotic and wasteful way in which capitalism works or fails to work.
Only 58.1% of Americans of working age now have a real job. Tens of millions of people worldwide are on the scrapheap when they could be producing goods and providing services.
On the basis of public ownership and democratic planning, all the human and physical resources of society could be harnessed for the benefit of the vast majority instead of the increasingly rich minority.
The stranglehold of the banks and capitalist politicians over the lives of millions, in fact, billions, has to be broken. Mass movements, including general strikes, will show the power that the working class can wield in society.
Linked with the energy and anger of the youth, new mass workers' parties can be rapidly built. Confidence in the idea of a socialist alternative to capitalism can and must be renewed without delay.
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