Prospects for the UK economy

Prospects for the UK economy As we hear today Britain has seen some modest growth figures. Is this cause for celebration or a false dawn? — Britain's economy grew faster than thought in the second quarter, official data showed on Friday, extending a broadly based recovery. Gross domestic product (GDP) -- the total value of goods and services produced in the economy -- grew by 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement. That marked an upgrade from the initial estimate of 0.6-percent expansion. Growth occurred across all sectors of the economy, with small upward revisions across manufacturing, construction and parts of services. Second-quarter GDP growth has more than doubled from the 0.3-percent expansion that was witnessed in the first three months of the year. The economy expanded by 1.5 percent in the second quarter, or three months to the end of June, compared with the equivalent period in 2012, the ONS added. That was also up from the previous estimate of 1.4 percent. Sterling and the London stock market shrugged off the news. Market expectations had been for no change to both figures, according to analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires. The ONS added that construction activity expanded by 1.4 percent in the second quarter, up from the initial estimate of 0.9 percent, as the housing market was partly lifted by state schemes that are aimed at stimulating lending to homebuyers. Factory output grew 0.7 percent in the quarter, up from the prior figure of 0.4 percent, while consumer spending rose 0.4 percent. There were also upward revisions for output from distribution, hotels and catering firms, as well as business services and finance firms, and the agriculture sector. Britain's shrinking net trade deficit, which dropped to £3.2 billion ($5.0 billion, 3.7 billion euros) in the second quarter from a £4.3-billion deficit in the first quarter, also boosted growth as exports hit a record level. Friday's data comes one week after news that British retail sales -- a vital indicator of consumer confidence -- jumped 1.1 percent in July from June as a heat wave fuelled spending on food, drinks and summer clothing. "The slight upward revision to Q2 GDP continues the run of good news on the UK economy and the spending breakdown looks reasonably encouraging too," said Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics. "The initial estimate of a 0.6-percent quarterly rise has been nudged up to 0.7 percent and now looks even better compared to the more modest rises seen in the US and euro zone in Q2. "As indicated by the timelier retail sales figures, consumer spending played a big role." ING economist James Knightley added that the higher estimate of GDP will "boost optimism on the economy". Although this is some modest growth it is still the fact that not enough constant capital dead labour in affect has not been destroyed to restore the rate of profit. As such the system is bound to hit trouble in the near future. As we know the capitalist system is not based on meeting so called demand in fact workers can never buy back what they create as this would mean the system wouldn’t be capitalist at all in fact. This is a crisis of profitability with the under lying crisis being caused by the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall which Karl Marx brilliantly described many years ago in his works on das capital in the 19th century. For the capitalist system to come out of recession a certain amount of constant capital needs to be destroyed to create space for new modes of production to sprout. The reason the recovery is so sluggish is due to the organic composition of capital and the simply fact there is still far too much constant capital to variable in a ratio form anyway. We are not out of the woods yet and any capitalist polititian calling this a real recovery should hold fire. Certainly in the UK much of this short term growth can be put down to the laying off of workers and the driving down of the surplus workers receive their wages in other wods increasing profits as a result. Capitalism is a system which invests for profits not to meet need so calling this a crisis of under consumption I don’t think is right as capitalism has never been about meeting the working class’s needs not now not ever. Understanding Marx’s 3rd law of capitalist motion is key to understanding that the system cannot be reformed or made to work for us. It simply must be replaced with a system planned to meet the mass’s needs before profits are even considered which under socialism they will become less and less relevant.

world in crisis, central banks not providing the anser

Increasing concerns and contradictions Per-Åke Westerlund, from Offensiv, newspaper of Rättvisepartiet Socialisterna (CWI Sweden) The severe downturn in 2008-09 made the world economy into an experimental workshop. But neither extreme austerity or trillions to the banks has led to a solid recovery. Now there is growing concern among politicians and economists. At the center of concern is the crisis in Europe. In early 2012, both Italy and Spain were close to sovereign defaults, which in turn would have made the whole euro project collapsing. EU’s leading politicians and institutions were scared into taking extreme measures. The European Central Bank, ECB, promised "unlimited access" to capital for both states and banks. Since then, the ECB lent 360 billion euros to Spanish banks and 260 billion into Italian. A large part have been used to buy their respective state bonds. The interest rate gap - how much more it costs for Spain or Italy to borrow than Germany - have fallen from 6-7 percentage to 2-3 percent. The ECB’s generosity is matched by other central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve is in its fourth round of Quantitative Easing which means that the Fed buys government debt notes for $ 85 billion each month. Japan’s new right-wing government has now embarked on a "quantitative and qualitative" monetary policy in double pace compared to Fed. In two years, the central bank (Bank of Japan, BOJ) will use equivalent to a quarter of Japan’s GDP - the third largest economy - to purchase government bonds, equities and real estate. Central Banks But now there is increasing concern that central banks’ intervention is not the solution, but rather deepens the crisis. "Some of the leading figures in central banking concede they were flying blind when steering their economies," reported the Financial Times (18 April), from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meeting. Lorenzo Samgh of the the ECB’s executive board: "We do’nt fully understand what is happening in advanced economies." The head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, said that no one can be sure that the expansionary monetary policy is correct and wondered if they are “running the risk of reigniting the problems that led to the financial crisis in the first palce?”. Central bank intervention has eased the immediate crisis for the most vulnerable banks and states. But they do not kick start economies - investments in the advanced capitalist countries is still at a record low. However, the new policy opened for sharper conflicts between nation states. The Japanese currency, the yen, has fallen by 25 percent since last year. It has benefited the Japanese export industry, at the expense of for example German and South Korean industry. The IMF’s semi-annual reports from April (Global Financial Stability Report and World Economic Outlook) notes that central banks’ actions have achieved “a broad market rally” but also created new risks. Capital now flows back from the richer countries to developing countries, creating potential instability. The Fed boss Ben Bernanke recently warned that banks’ speculation may increase. IMF But especially worried is the IMF for what happens when easing ends. There is no equivalent in history to learn from. "Continued improvements will require further balance sheet repair in the financial sector and a smooth unwinding of public and private debt overhangs. If progress in addressing these medium-term challenges falters, risks could reappear. The global financial crisis could morph into a more chronic phase marked by a deterioration of financial conditions and recurring bouts of financial instability", writes the IMF. The conditions raised here - balance sheet repair and unwindling of debts - have so far failed, which points towards a more chronic crisis. The second leg of the crisis policy - the extreme austerity measures - have had worse immediate effects. 19.2 million are now unemployed in the euro zone, of which six million in Spain alone. In Greece, youth unemployment is 59.1 percent. The New York Times reported in an article on Greek school children who faint and are searching for food in the bins. The Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Caolho - a strong proponent of the infamous Troika (IMF, EU and ECB) austerity - promised in 2011 that "two terrible years" would be followed by recovery. But as a result of the extreme austerity, in 2013 Portugal "faces a much deeper and longer recession than the government or international lenders had foreseen" (Financial Times). The IMF estimated in April that the risk of recession (the economy contracts) in the euro zone was 50 percent. Since then, the ECB president Draghi warned that even France is dragged deeper into the crisis. The EU has given Spain and France two additional years to meet the rule that budget deficits should not exceed three percent of GDP. Under new rules they would otherwise been fined. In a large survey among capitalists and finance investors in Europe, made by the credit rating company Fitch, a large majority believe this year’s calm in Europe is transient. "Fitch warns in a statement that it [2013] can once again become a summer marked by the euro crisis, just as in 2011 and 2012, since there is a strong contradiction between the recent stock market rally and euro zone recession and rising unemployment." (From Swedish daily, Dagens Industri). No capitalist solution None of the capitalist institutions have a solution. Many warn that austerity has gone too far, but stil emphasise the need for a balanced budget for the "medium term". How quickly the Cyprus crisis threatened to spread shows that EU countries need a banking union, writes the IMF in its report. And before the ECB’s "limitless" capital flow eased the crisis, leading EU politicians like Germany’s Angela Merkel and European Commission President Barrosso put forward the EU needed a much tighter budget policy and synchronisation. But national interests and conflicts makes especielly German politicians hesitating. The risk, in their view, is that Germany then definitely become the guarantor of banks across Europe. In parallel with the growing contradictions within the EU member states there is a sharp increase of distrust against the EU itself. In Spain today 72 percent are critical of the EU, against 23 per cent before the crisis. Germany the increase is from 36 to 59 percent. The crisis has been exploited to push through many of the counter-reforms the capitalists dreamed of. Worse pensions in Italy, easier to fire workers in Spain, pay cuts of 50 per cent in Greece and so on. Now the capitalists increase their pressure on French President Hollande go the same way. He has already abolished the capital gains tax and promised to reduce the cost of unemployment insurance, pensions and municipalities. At the same time, the political pressure from below is increasing. In a French opinion poll, 70 percent believes a "social explosion" is possible in the coming months. The IMF in April again lowered its forecast for world economic growth this year to 3.3 percent (though 3.5 in October). World trade is expected to only increase by 3.6 percent this year after 2.5 percent last year. The index of large corporate purchasing managers in both the EU and Japan is still below 50, indicating that the economy is not growing. But even the index for China is just over 50. China China’s economy - the world’s second-largest, estimated to overtake the U.S. before 2020 - is now slowing sharply. The large stimulus package in 2009, which held up growth through massive investment, is now hitting back with full force. Debts of municipalities and provinces is estimated at between 20 and 40 percent of the country’s GDP. In the first quarter of this year these debts increased twice as fast as in the same period in 2012. The IMF and politicians in the West are talking about how consumption in China must increase and investment must go down. But lowering the investment share of GDP from the current 50 percent to 30 percent in a position when economic growth will be 6 percent instead of the previous 10 percent "would cause a depression, all on its own", concludes economics columnist Martin Wolf of the Financial Times. Demand would collapse, with considerable effects on the world economy. Governments and capitalist classes now places greater pressure on other states. The U.S. wants to see greater demand in Germany and Europe, while European politicians requires that the deficits in the U.S. and Japan are reduced. The budget deficit in Japan this year is near 10 percent of GDP for the fifth consecutive year. Public debt is expected to be 255 percent of GDP in 2018. The U.S. deficit is five per cent of GDP and the debt is 110 percent. Growth in the US is expected this year to be the highest of the developed capitalist countries, 1.2 percent. But the forecast is uncertain since the automatic cuts, the sequester, will have effect in the latter half of the year. With the failures of "unorthodox methods" more and more people will realise that there is no solution within the framework of the capitalist system. The resistance from workers and poor will grow, like for example the general strike in Portugal in early March, which was the largest since the revolution in 1974. The task for socialists is to build new workers’ parties with a clear socialist answer to the crisis.

Europe’s car industry another crisis in the making

Below I republish an excellent article posted a few months back by the CWI detailing the slowing down of the European car market. What has always been thought of an ever expanding market now appears to have dark clouds on the horizon for German, French and Italian car manufacturers. Europe’s car industry Another crisis in the making www.socialistworld.net, 27/09/2012 website of the committee for a workers' international, CWI For a European-wide and international strategy of the trade unions to defend factories, jobs and working conditions Stephan Kimmerle, CWI “It’s a bloodbath of pricing and it’s a bloodbath on margins”, Sergio Marchionne, boss of troubled Fiat and chair of the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) wails about the European markets. “Europe’s auto industry has reached day of reckoning”, was the headline in the New York Times. With the slowdown of growth in China the car industry internationally faces harder times. But for Europe it’s a disaster. Sales in Europe went down from more than 15 million in 2007 to approximately 12.4 million in 2012. A further clogging up of the outlet of exports to Chinese markets will drown the European plants in overcapacity. Given the fact, that huge over-capacity already existed before the crisis, the constant cost of maintaining the factories puts enormous pressure towards the closure of around 8 to 10 plants, according to capitalist commentators. This implies getting rid of the capacity to produce at least 3 million vehicles in Europe - an equivalent of around 250,000 jobs. According to analysts, factories must operate at 75% at least to be profitable. The destruction of that capability to produce goods – not necessarily cars – and the sacking of a very skilled workforce, lining up in the ranks of the mass unemployed – is the capitalist ‘solution’ to this problem. However, so far in the course of this crisis, only a very few plants have been closed in Europe (e.g. Opel Antwerp, Fiat in Sicily) and, at the same time, new capacity has been built up in Eastern Europe and internationally. Winners and losers The developing car crisis is hitting the different mass producers in very dissimilar ways. While Volkswagen appears to have increased its share of the market (despite some problems for its Seat arm), the Peugeot group (PSA) and General Motors in Europe (Opel, Vauxhall) seem to have suffered the most. Opel has losses of €938 per car sold, Peugeot-Citroen €789. Opel is discussing whether to close factories either in Eisenach (eastern Germany) or Bochum (western Germany). Ford is considering the closure of its plant in Genk, Belgium. Peugeot announced a reduction of its 100,000-strong workforce in France by 8,000 including the closure of its plant in Aulnay-sous-Bois near Paris (in total 14,000 jobs will be lost from the global 210,000 workforce according to this plan). While the workers at Aulnay took to the streets in protest and to demand that their jobs are safeguarded, a so-called expert, on behalf of the French government, just argued to close Peugeot’s Madrid plant instead and sack the workers there. The announcement to make the workers redundant in France’s Peugeot plants in June immediately triggered protest actions across the country. On 9 October, the CGT trade union federation has called for a demonstration of car workers in Paris, confronting the bosses presenting the new models on the same day. However, delegates coming together from the different factories of Peugeot had to push the trade union leaders to take this and more decisive action, and there is no strategy to fully use the power of the combined workforce in Aulnay and other plants. While the Aulnay workers went on strike, others were not called to join in. The differences between companies also reflect the uneven effects of the economic crisis in Europe and the devastating effects of the austerity measures imposed on Southern Europe. While German car sales are stagnant, France saw a decline of 14%, Italy minus 20%, while the number of purchases went down over 40% in Greece and Portugal. The decline in sales in Southern Europe had a much bigger effect on Peugeot and Ford purchases given their car fleet and traditional markets. Ford implemented short-time work, for example, at its plant in Cologne, Germany, which produces for these markets. At the same time, workers are being blackmailed to accept worsening working conditions in a race to the bottom. The current problems in Bochum reflect GM’s decision in May in favor of their Vauxhall plant in Ellesmere Port, Britain. They forced workers to accept longer hours, losses in real wages and more flexibility, with the company dictating the times of work even on the weekend in order that production would be continued there. With this, the internal competition between the Opel plants in Germany (Rüsselsheim, Bochum) and Vauxhall in Ellesmere Port was used again in a successful way by the bosses against the workers. A whole series of deals involving workers giving concessions to save their jobs have been implemented in the past. Now, despite the ‘guarantees’ given to the workers that their jobs would be safe until 2016, the Bochum factory is faced with the danger of closure, and Rüsselsheim will see huge over-capacity as soon as the next changes of models are fully introduced. Unfortunately, instead of developing a joint fight back, the trade union leaders in Britain and Germany always justified the concessions, sharing a very narrow view on defending jobs in the framework of their nation state or even only looking towards saving one plant against another. Strategy of the bosses: following the US example? The bosses’ attempts to make workers pay for this crisis are obvious. But what is their plan to organize a way out? Billions of euros were spent after the crisis hit in 2009 to bail out the car industry in Europe. Looking from a US point of view the New York Times commented: “But instead of using that money to ease painful downsizing of plants and payrolls, governments provided financial incentives for people to trade in older models for new ones, or subsidized worker salaries to dissuade companies from cutting jobs.” (New York Times, 26 July) That’s what happened in the US. In an act of state intervention, the Obama administration took effective control of GM and Chrysler, two of the three big US car companies and organized a massive restructuring in order to restore profitability to the shareholders. The restructuring involved the shutting down of dozens of plants across the Midwest, the loss of thousands of jobs and getting rid of the historic gains of decent wages, pensions and health care for newly hired workers. Their wages of new hires are now at half the previous scale. This ‘restructuring’, at the expense of auto workers, was only possible with the active cooperation of the leadership of the United Auto Workers (UAW), the once mighty trade union of US car workers. A part of the trade union bureaucracy has turned more into managers to run the shares controlled by the UAW at GM and Chrysler, as well as the management of their $1bn Wall Street ‘strike fund’, and of the health plan for retirees which is controlled by the UAW. As part of the longer process of reorganizing the terms of exploitation, a sharp decrease of the wages of US car workers was implemented. The traditional factory bases in the north of the US, with a high level of trade union organization and traditions, have been gutted with production moving towards the US south, where trade unions are hardly present in the auto industry. Several Japanese and German companies now have low-wage car manufacturing plants in the US, which increasingly is seen as a low-wage manufacturing centre. That is the actual restructuring plan that is taking place under the Obama administration – a devastating blow to the living standards and conditions of US workers in the auto industry under the pretext of ‘saving jobs’. But the main objective was to cut costs in order to restore profits for the shareholders. Given the huge over-capacity in this industry in Europe, Sergio Marchionne, Fiat chief and current president of the European auto makers’ association, Acea, called for such a US-style method on an EU level to deal with the problem: “[Europe] needs to provide a unified, concerted road map to get this done,” Marchionne said. “Look at what happened with the steel industries in the ’90s, and copy that example.” That means factory closures, sackings and worsening working conditions for those who keep their jobs, organized by the governments of Europe. Will the European capitalists implement a US-style plan? Unable to solve the fundamental crisis of the car industry, will the European bosses be able to go the way of the US? The different nation states will try to act as in 2009. But it’s more than unlikely that the European capitalists could find a joint approach. In 2009, the different nation states put forward schemes like ‘cash for clunkers’. Formally they dealt with the different producers in a neutral way, but the design of the different schemes was made up of competing national interests. If Fiat and Peugeot are the losers of this crisis, the German state, from a capitalist point of view, does not bother too much. It may even open up new opportunities for Volkswagen. In the logic of capitalism, the tensions and differences between nation states and the companies based on nation states increase. That does not rule out that, in a joint interest to stabilize the economy or to prevent an escalation of protests, some joint actions could be decided on. But, as the euro crisis shows, the nation states in Europe are the tools of the different capitalist classes. They cooperate as far as it is in their interest, but the contradictions are increasing. And the use of their nation state is a one way street for them and does not oblige them to do anything. Two-and-a-half years ago, Fiat chief Marchione argued for what he called an ‘investment plan’ in Fiat’s Italian factories under the name ‘Fabbrica Italia’ (Factory Italy). (The origin of the word ‘Fiat’ is: Fabbrica Italiana di Automobili – Torino). Playing on the Italian card, he argued for state help and massive concessions by the workers in the working conditions and wages. Today, he just argues that an international company (now making more money with the Chrysler arm) needs to re-adjust the plans according to the market developments, despite some repetition of empty phrases of protecting Italian interests. Workers in Italian factories have already been forced onto short-time working linked to loss in pay – some even down to only 4 days of work a month. Perspectives However, it is far from certain that the current winners, e.g. German car producers, will just continue to be on the gain. After the crisis in 2009, it was mainly the Chinese markets that helped to overcome the problems for European car makers. Given the sales in Asia, the higher range cars – the German Daimler, BMW and Audi – has still not been hurt by a new crisis yet, but a slowdown is there. Even booming Volkswagen announced to its suppliers in Germany the possibility of a fall of 10% in production. Daimler announced further programmers to reduce costs. The attempts at increased cooperation between companies increased (e.g. Opel with PSA, Daimler with Nissan). The failure of the Daimler-Chrysler fusion is still a warning, however, that the pressure on companies is immense and that further fusions, as well as the collapse of whole companies, are on the table. The best option the companies are hoping for at the moment is that the decline in Europe is cushioned by markets in the rest of the world. It is very open as to whether this scenario materializes. Even then, it would be linked to further reductions of plants and jobs. An even more severe development cannot be ruled out with a hard landing in China (a growth rate falling to 5%) and other emerging markets being hit by global downturn. Trade union strategy In the first days of horror that greeted the car crisis in 2009 the fear of losing jobs and factories enforced a debate about a change of the whole industry towards electro cars and ‘green mobility’. However, this was quickly forgotten as soon as sales in China increased and cash-for-clunker schemes evolved. Trade unions like the mighty IG Metal in Germany signed agreements that workers had to accept short-time working with severe losses of pay. Contract workers lost their jobs and the core workforce paid a heavy price. Trade union leaders accepted a continuation of a "two-tier system", where younger or new workers are employed on much lower wages and worse working conditions. Trade union bureaucrats in Germany accepted – off the record – to play the same role as their counterparts during the decline of the German steel and coal industries: organize the end of jobs and companies with some minor concessions, avoiding bigger upheavals. The crisis is starting again to bite for car workers. It’s urgent to avoid a repetition of these developments on an even worse economic basis compared to 2009. A trade union strategy is needed to coordinate resistance all over Europe and internationally to defend all jobs and factories and to end the playing-off of workers in one plant or country against others. A unified struggle is needed to fight against all cuts, concessions, job losses and closures. All factories where workers are threatened with redundancies have to be taken over by the states and run under workers’ control and management. But, given the links between the factories, the inter-dependencies and the over-capacity in the industry in general, the struggle for nationalisation cannot be limited to those factories the bosses do not need any more. The whole industry needs to be put under state ownership and democratic management by the workers, the unions and the state to start a transformation. A plan is needed for how to reorganise the car industry and use this well-educated and skilled workforce in the interests of working people in Europe and internationally. If necessary, that might require switching the production to other socially necessary products, reducing the hours of the working week and linking it to a plan to overcome the economic crisis in general – not by cuts, unemployment and poverty but by reorganising the production in the needs of working people. When Marchione calls for a “unified, concerted road map” to slaughter jobs and plants, the workers’ and trade unions’ answer should be united and concerted. To open this road, the trade unions also have to be transformed into fighting organisations, based on internal democracy, building close links of workers European-wide and internationally. A militant movement in the workplaces and trade unions is needed to struggle for these changes, developing direct links of workers’ representatives between factories and countries and overcome the barriers towards a joint fight back.

Greece 2nd elections over, real battle now begins to oppose austerity

As the dust is still settling in Greece after the latest round of elections and a narrow win for new democracy the centre right party has a narrow majority and will try and govern. The most remarkable story of this election has to be of Syriza the radical coalition of the left have became the official opposition party in Greece. Even to reach this stage it cannot be underestimated how far they have come from being on about 3-4% a few years back to gaining 28 odd % of the national vote this weekend is some surge and just goes to show how a party with the right ideas and a correct programme at the right time can be thrust forward on a wave of support.

The results of this election are just a snapshot of where Greece is the major political parties largely discredited with new democracy being the preferred option for the capitalists to prop up their failing system. It will now face a huge opposition lead by Syriza who will now go back out into the streets and form opposition to any further austerity new democracy tries to ram down the Greek workers throats. The elections are over in Greece but the battle for a change in society is just starting with capitalism rocking own in the EU and with outside forces like the US and China faltering and slowing the EU is the hotpot where the water is coming to boil. This is sure to spill over at some point and eyes will turn to Spain and Italy and Ireland where further austerity will only aim to make things worse still.

Since the introduction of the first memorandum of austerity, Greece has been convulsed by massive social struggles. In the past two years, it has seen 17 general strikes. It also saw the development of the ’Squares’ movement, in parallel to the development of the indignados movement in Spain, but which had a greater connection and impact on the workers’ struggle. It is these movements that laid the basis for the smashing of the Troika parties elect orally in last month’s election and for the meteoric rise of Syriza. At the rallies I have attended, Syriza speakers have explicitly connected themselves to these movements as representatives of them.
There are some struggles ongoing now, including the strike led by the KKE (Greek Communist Party) in the steel works in Athens; it has now been ongoing for around 200 days. In recent days, a court ruled that the strike was illegal. Scandalously, a prominent Syriza representative declared that although the strike was heroic, the law was the law and the strike should now end. That is not the Syriza position, however.
The movement to boycott the payment of tolls on the road ebbed as a result of the sanctions which the state was able to implement. The boycott of the household tax continues however, although the levels of non-payment are significantly lower than the 50% there is in Ireland, because the bill was linked to the electricity bill and they threatened to cut off electricity from those who didn’t pay. This was defeated in the courts and now the government plans to shift collection to Revenue, a possibility for the property tax in Ireland that has been mooted by the government.
Right now, although there are some isolated struggles, things are relatively quiet on that front. Exhaustion flowed from the repeated general strikes and with the number of working poor, the choice to strike and lose another day’s pay in the absence of a strategy to win, is not an easy one to make. The attention and hopes of activists and workers have therefore very much focused on today’s elections.


It is clear that new workers parties are needed urgently across Europe to oppose austerity out right and offer that alternative.

However, make no mistake that post-election is likely to see an upsurge of extra-parliamentary struggle. The lessons of the general strikes and the inspiring ’Squares’ movement, which gave a glimpse of the power of people to self-organise, will not have been lost.
However, now in the event they have won and can cobble together a right government, the problems for Greek capitalism are far from over. They will be unable to implement the level of austerity demanded by Merkel and Co and despite their promises of stability; I believe Greece will be forced out of the euro. Such a government would be inherently very weak and would face a strong left and workers’ opposition in the parliament and on the streets.
In such a situation, the task for the left would be to organise to resist the imposition of yet more austerity and to prepare to bring the government down with struggle from below. That would also provide an opportunity for Syriza to turn itself into a party with full rights for tendencies within it but allowing individual members to join. A very significant debate within Syriza and the left would probably ensue about what programme for power.

Certainly Greece is in very unstable and unpredictable times, The crisis in capitalism is deepening even still and will only weaken what is left of democracy what is most worrying is the fact that even still all the TV appearances and the threat of the far right the Golden Dawn’s vote in Greece stayed largely at the same level this shows there is a base of support out there for far right anti immigrant ideas and needs to be combated head on. With workers defence councils set up to defend workers rights and pickets where possible. This is a much read threat and needs to be faced with a serious response from those on the left.

Solidarity with workers across Europe

As the crisis in capitalism grows deeper and deeper and the ruling classes look increasingly desperate for ordinary working people they haven’t seen this drop in living standards for a very very long time possibly ever.



In Britain, as in every country of Europe, millions of working people are following events in Greece with baited breath. In part this is because of fear of what the deepening economic crisis in the euro zone could mean for workers in Britain. But it is not the only reason. It is also because workers are inspired by the defiance of the Greek population.
Seventeen general strikes have shaken Greece in the course of the last two years as Greek workers have refused to accept the mass impoverishment demanded of them. And now the Greek working and middle classes have shouted their defiance in the elections - shattering the electoral base of the previous establishment parties - Pasok and New Democracy - and voting for those who opposed austerity.
Syriza (Coalition of the Radical Left) was the biggest beneficiary of the anti-austerity mood in the recent Greek general election, increasing its vote from 4.6% to 16.78%.
Since then Syriza's principled stand, refusing to join a coalition that accepted more austerity and instead demanding a left government, has led to increasing support in opinion polls - as high as 26% - mostly topping the polls. This also shows the potential for left, anti-cuts candidates to make breakthroughs outside of Greece, including the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) in Britain.
The right-wing and fascist Golden Dawn won 21 MPs in the 6 May elections but has since seen its support plummet in the polls. This gives an indication of how support for the far right can be undermined when a credible left alternative emerges. But it is also a warning of what could emerge if Syriza does not lead a battle against austerity.


All across Europe workers are being forced to accept austerity in Ireland next week people will go to the polls to vote on the European austerity treaty as socialists we call for a strong NO vote rejecting permanent austerity and being locked into a straight jacket in terms of Ireland’s options from this point on.

The capitalist classes of Europe are now cranking up the pressure on the Greek working class, trying to blackmail it into voting 'the right way' at the recall general election in June.
Typically Cameron has led the charge, crudely sending "a very clear message to the people of Greece: there is a choice - you can vote to stay in the euro, with all the commitments you made, or if you vote another way you're effectively voting to leave."
Cameron is attempting to turn the general election into a referendum on the euro. He is gambling on the fact that a majority of the Greek population still want to remain in the euro, fearing the prospect of being a small, isolated and impoverished country.
It was not the Greek people that made a "commitment" to endure endless misery. This was done by the previous government parties and, as a result, the Greek population punished them at the polls.
The policies demanded by the troika of the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, and implemented by Greek governments, have left sections of the Greek population destitute and the vast majority in terrible poverty.
The Greek economy has shrunk by 20% in four years, a catastrophe not seen in Europe since the 1930s. Public sector wages have fallen by 40%. The church is now feeding an average of 250,000 people each day as sections of the population literally face starvation.

As the pressure of the axe-men and women mounts on the Greek people to submit, the working class of Britain, along with workers across Europe, needs to send a resounding message to the Greek people: 'We stand 100% with your rejection of austerity. We support your struggle and will step up the battle to stop cuts and defend living conditions in our own countries, as the best means of assisting your struggle. If, as is overwhelmingly likely, the capitalist classes of Europe force you out of the euro zone, you will not be isolated - the workers of Europe stand in solidarity with you.'
What better support could workers in Britain give to workers in Greece than by bringing down the hated Con-Dem government?
It is not only in Greece but across Europe that the working class has rejected austerity on the streets and at the ballot box. The defeat of Sarkozy in France and of Merkel's party in Germany's most populous state, the huge vote against the Con-Dem's in Britain's local elections, plus the local election results in Italy; are all electoral indications of a growing tidal wave of opposition to austerity.
The battle against austerity must be linked to struggle against capitalism - a system in a profound crisis. It is not the supposed past profligacy of the peoples of Greece, Spain, Ireland or Britain that has led to the current catastrophe but the economic crisis of capitalism, and the past and current profligacy of the financiers and speculators who dominate the economy.
The euro zone has become an austerity zone, where all the problems of the capitalist crisis are intensified. We as Socialists always warned that the euro, a single currency for very different economies, would not work on a capitalist basis.
When the world economy was growing it could appear a success, but in a crisis it would become a terrible trap for the working classes of Europe.
The leaders of the euro zone, headed by German capitalism, are trying to overcome the crisis by driving the working class into the dirt.
Cameron is applying the same policy in Britain. But this is exacerbating the economic crisis and is creating a gigantic revolt. It is fear of a deepening of the economic crisis and, above all, of the revolt that is coming, that is forcing the leading representatives of capitalism, including Obama, to put pressure on German capitalism to move towards some measures to stimulate the euro zone’s economies.
The economic crisis is not caused by a lack of profits for big business. The capitalists have huge piles of cash. The Wall Street Journal estimates that in the US, the euro zone, the UK and Japan, some $7.75 trillion in cash, is sitting in the vaults of big business.
Because the capitalists refuse to invest this money, we call for an immediate 50% levy on it, in order for it to be used for a massive programme of investment in public work and job creation. However, there is no prospect of capitalist governments carrying out this kind of serious stimulus, which would create howls of outrage, and opposition, from their big business backers.

So let’s join together across Europe and look across borders and see we are all fighting the same enemy and that if we unite across borders workers can finally feel their huge strength they do hold. Once workers in Europe break out of their chains the tide will turn very quickly. In Britain we can do our bit by helping to bring down this weak rotten con-dem government which is intent on making the poor pay for a crisis they did not create. This October on the TUC demonstration we also need to have placards and banners with messages of solidarity with Greek, Spanish, Irish and Portuguese workers on this will scare the ruling class’s with the ideas and solidarity that is spreading like wild fire across Europe as we speak.

Its time to fight back, its time to unite but most of all stand together.

Euro crisis deepens but which way out for workers and youth ?

By Tony Saunois (CWI) with Andros Payiatos, Xekinima (CWI Greece)

Syriza leader Alexis Tripras: it’s “a war between peoples and capitalism”
The Greek elections called on May 6 resulted in a political earthquake. Powerful after-shocks are still hitting the global economy, the EU, and Greece itself. These are now set to be the precursor to even stronger political and social upheavals in Greece and throughout the EU.

The workers’ organisations and youth in Britain and throughout the EU need to extend their solidarity to the Greek workers. The workers’ movement throughout the EU needs to oppose the demands that the “Troika” and others are making for the Greek workers to accept more austerity. Such solidarity is a part of the struggle of workers in all countries against the attacks made on them by their own ruling class and governments.

The elections shattered the old established political allegiances but left no coalition of parties from either the left or the right able to form a parliamentary majority. The government has been left paralysed, and new elections have been called for June 17.

This paralysis in parliament is a reflection of a Greek society convulsed in turmoil. There are powerful features of both revolution and counter-revolution. As the Financial Times has warned: “Looting and rioting could occur. A coup or civil war would be conceivable” (18/5/12).

Syriza (Coalition of the Radical Left), whose share of the vote leapt from 4.6 percent to 16.78 percent, emerged as the second most successful group in the elections. This tremendously positive development, which has given hope to many workers and socialists internationally that something similar could take place in their own countries, has terrified the ruling class in Greece along with Merkel, Cameron, Rajoy and the other political leaders of capitalism. It has thrown down a potential challenge to the “Troika” and the austerity programme dictated by it.

The crucial question now is: can this left advance be pushed further and channelled into a bigger victory in the second election? Will the Greek working class and its organisations embrace a rounded out revolutionary socialist programme? Without this it will not be possible to resolve the crisis in Greece or begin to solve the devastating social consequences of the austerity packages thus far introduced.

As the elections on May 6 also demonstrated, if the left fails to meet this political challenge with the correct programme, slogans, intensity of struggle, and methods of organisation, then the extreme far right will certainly be willing to step into the void. The growth of the fascist Golden Dawn, which emerged from the election with 6.97 percent of the vote and 21 MPs, is a serious warning to the Greek and European working class. It illustrates the threat which will emerge as the crisis deepens in the next weeks and months if the left fails to offer a real alternative to capitalism.

The collapse of the established political parties, especially New Democracy (ND) and PASOK, was the clearest manifestation of the overwhelming rejection of those parties which have enacted the austerity programmes, slavishly following the demands of the “Troika”. Under both New Democracy and PASOK governments, and the outgoing coalition led by them, Greece has been under effective occupation from international bankers, the ECB, IMF, and EU. The European capitalist classes have adopted a modern version of colonial rule, appointing EU commissioners as overseers in each government Ministry.

The stooge parties of the EU have been vomited out by the Greek people. In the last three decades ND and PASOK garnished between 75 percent and 85 percent of the votes in each election. The combined vote of both these parties this time was a mere 32.02 percent - 18.85 percent for ND and 13.18 percent for PASOK.

Brutal attack on living standards
The Greek working and middle classes have suffered a brutal attack on living standards and working conditions for years. As a result of the economic crisis and austerity packages, Greece’s GDP (total output) will have fallen 20 percent from its 2008 level by the end of 2012. This is one of the largest ever falls in GDP suffered by any capitalist country since the depression of the 1930s.

These are not cold statistics. The lives of millions of working- and middle-class people have been shattered. The social consequences have been devastating. Public sector workers have seen wages slashed by 40 percent. A cup of coffee costs the same in London or Athens. Yet in Greece many workers are paid only €400 per month – a pittance. These are literally starvation wages for many. The church estimates it now feeds 250,000 people at soup kitchens every day. Healthcare patients are now expected to pay in advance for treatment, and the number of hospital beds is being slashed by 50 percent. One hospital refused to release a newborn infant until the mother paid the bill. Thousands of schools have been closed down. Many tens of thousands have fled the cities and gone back to the countryside where they can live with families and at least get access to food.

The middle class is being destroyed, with many becoming homeless, left to queue alongside the most downtrodden immigrant workers at food and homeless refuge camps. These camps appear like a southern European version of the “favela” shanty towns of Brazil. Unemployment has soared to over 21 percent – and an astonishing 51 percent amongst the youth.

The right wing and the fascist Golden Dawn have tried to whip up nationalism and racism by targeting illegal immigrants, whose numbers are estimated in hundreds of thousands. This is a major challenge for the workers and left organisations. Emergency measures to house and feed these people through the introduction of a special public works programme should be demanded by the left. A programme not at the expense of the Greek workers, but funded by the EU.

Workers fight back


The Greek working class has tenaciously fought against these attacks and each government which has enacted them. PASOK replaced New Democracy in the autumn of 2009, only to cave to the diktats of the “Troika” by applying the most vicious attacks against the Greek workers since the end of the civil war in 1949, ignoring its own promises to the contrary. PASOK’s support then collapsed as workers rejected its policies. The trade union leaders have been compelled since the beginning of 2010 to call sixteen general strikes – three of them for forty-eight hours – by the pressure of the workers. Still, the attacks have continued to rain down on the Greek population. The failure of the trade union leaders to take the struggle forward led to exhaustion among workers as one general strike followed another, appearing to lead nowhere. Now in the elections they have vented their rage against the pro-austerity parties.

Tens of thousands, out of desperation, have emigrated. Many more are on the waiting lists. Some have sought a way out by moving to Australia, Britain, and Canada. It has been estimated by the Greek press that in Australia alone there are currently 30,000 illegal Greek immigrants. Some, incredibly, have even gone to Nigeria and Kazakhstan, so desperate has life become in Greece.

Others, driven by desperation and the humiliation of the plight they find themselves in, have taken a more tragic exit. The international press featured the suicide of 77-year-old retired pharmacist, Dimitris Christoulas, who shot himself in front of Greek parliament because of debt. The trigger was effectively pulled by the “Troika” and its policies.

Having increased 22 percent, the suicide rate in Greece is now the highest in Europe. One radical journalist who recently returned from Greece witnessed a Mercedes car driven into the sea by a small businessman who killed himself. Under Greek law debts cannot be passed onto the family.

These are conditions reminiscent of those described in John Steinbeck’s epic novel about the U.S. depression – The Grapes of Wrath.

There is bitterness, hatred, and anger directed toward the Greek rich elite and their politicians who cannot safely walk the streets or enter public restaurants. The rich are transferring their money to Switzerland and other European countries while the mass of the population is left to suffer the consequences of the crisis.

In the May 6 elections, the Greek people punished all those politicians and parties which had implemented the austerity policies.

Syriza oppose coalition with PASOK and ND
The leadership of Syriza, particularly its top figure, Alexis Tsipras, correctly took a bold stand by refusing to join a coalition with either PASOK or ND given their support for the terms of the bail out and their continuing acceptance of austerity. He offered to instead form a left block with the Greek Communist Party, KKE, and tried to include the split from Syriza – Democratic Left – in order to fight for a left government.

Although limited, he proposed such a left front be based on a programme of freezing any further austerity measures; cancelling the law which abolishes collective bargaining and slashes the minimum wage to 490 euros per month; and launching a public investigation of the Greek debt, during which period there would be a moratorium on debt repayments. This programme, although inadequate to deal with the depth of the crisis in Greece, would have served as a starting point for developing the struggle against austerity and as a basis for a programme necessary to break with capitalism.

Scandalously, the leadership of the KKE refused to even meet with Tsipras, which was a continuation of its previous sectarian approach towards Syriza, the rest of the left, and the trade union movement. Syriza had correctly proposed a left front together with the KKE and ANTARSYA – the anti-capitalist left alliance in the elections. This was refused. The idea of a left front of Syriza and the KKE was something initially campaigned for by the Greek CWI section, Xekinima, in the period 2008-2010. Though viciously attacked initially, this idea gradually developed support and was eventually taken up by Tsipras and the Syriza leadership.

Had such a joint election list been formed it would have emerged as the largest force and got the 50-seat bonus in parliament which the Greek election system gives to the largest party. Even if this was not enough to form a parliamentary majority, it would have put the combined left forces in a commanding position to enter second elections and to offer the realistic prospect of a left government.

While the KKE refused to even consider joining a coalition left government, historically they were prepared to join a capitalist coalition. The KKE entered a coalition with ND in 1989. The KKE General Secretary, Aleka Papriga, has argued that they have learnt from this experience and use this to justify not joining forces with Syriza. However, a united left front, on the basis of fighting against austerity, is entirely different from joining a pro-capitalist government with ND.

A working-class left front led by workers’ parties could have served to unite in action the fragmented left forces in Greece. It could have led to the building of a powerful, organised movement outside parliament as a basis to challenge capitalism. Unfortunately, other left forces like ANTARSYA (Anti-capitalist Left Coalition) also adopted a similar attitude during the first election. However, they now face huge pressure from below, and there are sections of their ranks demanding a united front of some kind with Syriza in the June 17 elections. The issue is still being debated in their ranks, with the majority in the leadership wanting to stand against Syriza. If this line is the one adopted in the end by ANTARSYA, they will pay a heavy price with a serious fall in their support (ANTARSYA won 2 percent in the local elections of 2010 which fell to 1.2 percent in the May 6 election).

The sectarianism of the KKE leadership has provoked opposition within their own ranks as well. Some party members said in the election they would vote for the KKE but urged others to vote for Syriza. A continuation of this policy is certain to provoke further opposition in the ranks of the KKE and the possibility of a split within it.

The KKE has paid a price for this sectarian policy. Its vote only increased by 19,000 – 1 percentage point – to 8.48 percent in the May election. A recent poll for the election in June gave it 4.4 percent.

Despite the inadequacy of Syriza’s programme, its clear stand against austerity and refusal to enter coalition with any pro-austerity parties means it is strengthening its position. It is likely to emerge even stronger in the June elections. Recent opinion polls have put it on between 20 and 26 percent, which would mean it could be the largest party.

Tsipras has threatened not to pay the whole of the national debt, cut defence spending, and crack down on waste, corruption, and tax evasion by the rich. He has also supported public control of the banking system, at times implying nationalisation. He has also spoken favourably of Roosevelt’s “New Deal”. It is a radical reform programme but does not break with capitalism. However, it is a starting point for an emergency public works programme linked to the need for the nationalisation of the banks and key sectors of the economy and the introduction of a democratic socialist plan.

The rapid electoral growth of Syriza has important lessons for other left forces in other countries including TUSC in Britain. Such organisations can experience a rapid electoral growth from a low base when objective conditions are ripe for this. They need to establish a firm and clear profile to fight for workers’ interests to capitalise on the situation when other political parties have been tried and rejected. The electoral success achieved by the ULA in Ireland, especially the Socialist Party, illustrates this.

Syriza’s refusal to join a pro-cuts coalition with PASOK and ND, even on the basis of their promise to renegotiate the Memorandum with the “Troika”, is in marked contrast to other left forces and parties at this stage. In Italy, the PRC entered such coalitions at the local level and consequently destroyed its support. The IU in Spain, whose support grew in the recent election, has also now wrongly joined a coalition with PSOE in Andalucia. A continuation of this policy could erode the growth and development of the IU.

The pro-cuts parties, led by ND and PASOK, along with the “Troika”, are desperately trying to turn the second election into a referendum on membership in the euro zone and the EU rather than on their austerity policies. They, along with the EU establishment, are launching a clear campaign arguing that to oppose the austerity package will mean Greece being ejected from the euro and probably the EU.

The EU and the euro
This is a central issue in the Greek crisis and it is crucial for the left to have a clear policy and programme to face up to this question.

Unfortunately, despite taking a bold stand against austerity and against coalition with ND and PASOK, Tsipras and the Syriza leadership are not arguing for a clear alternative. In part, this reflects the pressure of a majority of Greeks – 79 percent according to one recent poll – who, while rejecting austerity, want to remain in the euro.

This reflects an understandable fear of what would follow Greece being ejected from the euro, including the potential isolation of Greece’s relatively small economy. The Greek masses are terrified of Greece being thrown back to the social conditions of the 1950s and ‘60s or the high inflation of the 1970s and 1980s. Syriza and the left need to answer these fears and explain what the alternative is.

It is also clear that Tsipras is gambling that the EU would not throw Greece out of the euro zone because of the consequences it would have for the rest of the EU. Yet this is not at all certain.

The KKE, on the other hand, opposes the euro and the EU and attacks Syriza for its attitude toward the EU and the euro. Politically, this is one of the justifications they use for not joining a left front with Syriza. While the KKE formally speaks in very radical rhetoric about a “people’s revolt” or an “uprising”, they adopt a propagandistic, abstract approach in practice which is totally unfitted to the class polarisation and willingness to struggle which currently exists in Greece. They even justified not joining a left governmental front because “what would then be the character of the opposition?” Opposition to the EU and the euro on a nationalist basis means they are trapped in a capitalist framework. What is necessary is an internationalist socialist approach that links together the struggle of the Greek workers with the working class in other EU countries.

It is true that a section of the European ruling classes are terrified of the consequences of throwing Greece out of the euro zone. The Centre for Economic and Business Research estimates that a “disorderly” collapse of the euro caused by Greece leaving could cost up to US$1 trillion. An “orderly” collapse would cost 2 percent of EU GDP –US$300 billion. Undoubtedly such a development would have massive consequences for the whole of the EU and could result in the break up of the euro zone with possibly Spain and/or other countries breaking from it.

However, the over-riding fear of the German ruling class and others is that if substantial concessions are made to Greece then Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland would clamour for even more. This they cannot risk. Thus the same Centre for Economic and Business Research concludes: “The end of the euro in its current form is a certainty”.

Tsipras and Syriza mistakenly believe that it is possible to remain in the euro zone and at the same time not introduce austerity policies against the working class. Yet the euro itself is an economic corset which allows the larger capitalist powers and companies to impose their austerity programme throughout the euro zone.

Syriza is correct to say it will refuse to introduce austerity. But how would it then face up to the threat of Greece’s ejection from the euro? This is the inevitable course events are now taking. It is not credible simply to respond by saying Greece will remain in the euro and oppose austerity. If they did this, and a left government on that basis were thrown out of the euro, Syriza would not be prepared to answer being blamed by the right wing for this.

While most Greeks fear being ejected from the euro at this stage, that does not mean that the euro can or will be accepted at any price indefinitely.

Syriza needs to respond to this attack by clearly explaining that if we reject austerity they will eject us from the euro zone. Even without a government opposing austerity Greece could be ejected from the euro.

Faced with such a situation, a left government should immediately introduce capital and credit controls to prevent a flight of capital from the country, nationalise all banks, finance institutions, and major companies. It should cancel all debt repayment to the banks and financial institutions. The books should be opened to inspect all of the agreements made with international banks and markets. The assets of the rich should be seized and safe guards given to small savers and investors. It should introduce an emergency reconstruction programme drawn up democratically as part of a socialist plan which would include a plan to assist small businesses.

Need for socialist internationalism
At the same time, Syriza and a democratic government of workers and all those exploited by capitalism should appeal to the working people of Europe – especially those facing a similar situation in Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Italy – to join them in solidarity and begin building a new alternative to the capitalist EU and euro. The massive crisis erupting in Spain and elsewhere would mean the working people would rally to such a call. This could be the first step to the formation of a voluntary democratic socialist confederation involving these countries as a step towards a socialist confederation of Europe.

Such a process should be begun now with direct links being built with the left and workers organisations in these countries.

Unfortunately, a failure to boldly answer the threat of being ejected from the euro will only serve to partly disarm the movement of struggle against austerity. It may prevent Syriza from emerging as the largest party. The Greek ruling class and the “Troika” are campaigning to make the election about membership in the euro, not about austerity. They are attempting to terrify people out of voting for Syriza and to rally fragmented right-wing voters - including from right-wing parties that failed to enter parliament - around New Democracy. However, after years of austerity measures and brutal attacks it is not certain this strategy will succeed.

Despite Syriza’s weakness on the EU and euro, at the time of writing Syriza seems certain to increase its support and has a serious possibility of becoming the largest party in close competition to ND. Recent polls have put both parties at between 20 and 23 percent of the vote.

New phase of the struggle
Should Syriza emerge in the lead or at the head of a government this would not signal the end of the crisis, but it would begin a new phase that the workers organisations need to urgently prepare for if they are to take the struggle forward.

Syriza itself needs to be strengthened by workers, youth, the poor, and all those opposed to austerity joining its ranks and getting organised. Syriza, as a coalition, is now attempting to broaden out to begin including social movements and organisations.

Tsipras has rightly called for the left to come together in a united front. This needs to be given a concrete organised expression through the convening of a national assembly of rank-and-file delegates from the left parties, trade unions, workplaces, universities, neighbourhoods, and community organisations.

Local assemblies of elected delegates from these same spheres should be urgently formed under the initiative of SYRIZA to prepare for the coming struggles and to ensure that a future left government carries out policies in the interests of working people.

The ruling class is beginning to feel threatened by the emerging challenge of Syriza and the left. There is the threat of a collapse in society if the left does not seize the moment. Government funds may even run out before the election on June 17.

Lessons from Chile
Although in a different era, there are some parallels between the situation in Greece today and the situation which developed in Chile between 1970 and 1973. There are also many parallels with developments taking place in Latin America today in countries like Venezuela, Bolivia, and Argentina.

In Chile in the period 1970-73 a massive polarisation developed in society. The right and the ruling class prepared their forces - they could not allow the impasse to continue.

The fascist organisation Patria y Liberdad marched, bombed, and attacked local activists and acted as a fascist auxiliary to the military which struck in a deadly coup on 11 September, 1973.

Golden Dawn, which praises the former Greek military dictatorship and Hitler, can act as a fascist auxiliary should the ruling class, or sections of them, conclude they have no alternative but to “restore order” from the chaos and social collapse which threatens Greek society through a military intervention. Although this is unlikely to be the first recourse of the ruling class, they could eventually move in this direction. If Golden Dawn’s support declines - as the polls indicate it will in this election - it would be positive, but it would not be the end of the threat posed by this fascist organisation.

The fascist leader of Golden Dawn, Nikolaos Michalokiakos, threatened those who have “betrayed their homeland”, saying: “[T]he time has come to fear. We are coming”. They cannot become a mass force in their own right, but like Patria y Liberdad they can become (and already are) a vicious organisation that can act as an auxiliary to attack minorities and the working class.

Golden Dawn is sending its “black shirt” thugs to attack immigrants who suffer daily beatings and threats from them. According to press reports in Gazi, Athens, they left leaflets outside gay bars warning they would be the next target and attacked gay people leaving the bars.

This poses the urgent necessity of forming local anti-fascist assemblies that should establish groups to defend all those threatened by fascist attack.

In the June 17 election, should Syriza emerge together with other left forces and win a parliamentary majority, a left government headed by Syriza and Alex Tsipas could rapidly be pushed towards the left under the pressure of the mass movement and depth of the crisis. This is also a fear of the ruling class. Such a development in Greece would also set an example in other countries, such as Spain and Portugal.

A government of this character could at some stage even include some features of the Allende government in Chile 1970-73 and also some features of the Chavez, Morales, and Kirchner governments in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Argentina. This could include taking measures that attack capitalist interests, including widespread nationalisations. While at this stage Syriza and Tsipras are not speaking of socialism as an alternative, this could change. In an interview published in the British daily paper The Guardian, he argued that it is “war between peoples and capitalism” (19/5/12). This represents a significant step forward but illustrates how he and the Syriza leadership could be pressured by the situation to go even further to the left. When first elected to power, Chávez in Venezuela did not make reference to socialism. Such a scenario in Greece is not at all certain but such developments could not be excluded at a certain stage. Particularly under the impact of the deepening crisis and class struggle, demands like nationalisation, workers’ control and management can be embraced by wide sections of the working class. This can push “left” governments to adopt such measures, at least partially. This was the experience of the first period of the PASOK government in 1981.

Should the pro-cuts parties be able to cobble together a coalition, on the basis of ND becoming the largest party and gaining the 50-seat bonus, then it would lack any credibility, authority, or stability. All such parties with such a low level of support forming such a government would effectively constitute a coup against the majority of the Greek people by minority pro-austerity parties. They would face intense anger and bitter struggles by the Greek working class. Such a government would face the huge anger of society and a ferocious struggle of the Greek workers to get rid of it, particularly as they will see the powerful possibility of a left government around Syriza, who would, under these conditions, be the main opposition force, deepening its presence and roots in society.

In this situation, Syriza should prepare a struggle against the government and the capitalist system. Xekinima, the Greek section of the CWI, would propose that under these conditions the central slogan should be for a struggle to bring these institutions down through strikes, occupations, and mass protests.

The rapid growth of Syriza is an extremely positive development. However, the depth of the social and political crisis unfolding in Greece will put it to the test along with all political forces. If it does not develop a fully rounded-out programme, set of methods, and approach of struggle that can offer a way forward to the masses, then it can decline as rapidly as it has arisen. To assist those forces in and around Syriza in drawing the necessary political conclusions as to the tasks needed to take the struggle forward, the strengthening of the Marxist collaborators of Syriza in Xekinima is also an urgent necessity.

Austerity and Anger in Greece

As my post yesterday on my thoughts on the NSSN conference went i detailed that a Greek Bus union leader had come to speak. I've managed to get hold of his speech in full if you'd like to read it underneath. Thanks must go to Martin powell-davies for this as it was originally posted on his excellent blog at.
http://electmartin1.blogspot.com/2011/06/austerity-and-anger-in-greece.html

Apostolis Kasimeris, one of the leaders of the OASA bus workers’ union in Athens, gave this speech to the National Shop Stewards Network Conference in London on June 11 2011:


Dear brothers and sisters,
I want to thank you for your invitation and to stress how important it is for me to be able to speak to British workers – workers who have provided excellent examples of determined class struggles. In particular, struggles like those of the Miners and against the Poll Tax have inspired many of us abroad.
Over the last two years, the Greek working class has faced a massive attack on its living standards and rights. It has been an unprecedented attack, worse even than that faced by the British working class at the time of Thatcher.
The Social-Democrat government of PASOK, together with the EU and the IMF, have cut the basic net wage from 670 € to 520 €. Our salaries are lower but the cost of living in Greece is no lower than that in Britain. Prices for food and clothing are the same. Petrol now costs 1.7 euros a litre. Neither do we have any rent subsidies or low-cost council housing for the low-paid and unemployed.
In the public sector, where wages are supposed to be better than the private sector, we have seen our wages cut by 30% on average over the last two years. Their plans are to cut them by a further 35% over the next two years. Before the intervention of the EU and the IMF, the take-home pay of a teacher with 10 years’ experience would only have been around 1300 euros a month. But now pay has been slashed to perhaps just 1000 euros.
At the same time they plan to sack 150,000 public-sector workers over the next 4 years. This is when official unemployment has already reached 800,000 - 16% of the labour force. But real levels of unemployment are about 1 ½ times the official estimates.
They have made huge expenditure cuts on education, health and social services. In our public hospitals, a third of beds have been cut – 13,000 out of 35,000. Many universities are forced to close down for certain periods of time because they cannot pay electricity bills, or in order to save on other costs.
What is the Government’s answer to this desperate crisis?
They are now planning to sell-off all our public utilities – electricity, water, railways, the docks.
They want to smash collective bargaining and change the law to make it easier to sack workers.
They are raising taxes – both direct and indirect. VAT has gone up by 4% - to 23%.
Pensions have been massively cut. The retirement age has been raised to 67. But, even then, you can only get a full pension if you have completed 40 years of work with paid social insurance.
I will give you an example to explain the terrible results of these attacks. Two months ago, Athens council workers occupied the city hall for 26 days, fighting for their jobs. Among them was a contract worker aged 72 who had no option but to continue working as he had not completed the working time needed to qualify for a full pension. Even if he manages to work on for long enough, his pension will only be 400 euros!
The attack of the IMF, EU and European Central Bank has no end. After a year of savage attacks they have now concluded that the huge cuts are still not deep enough. They are imposing a second ‘memorandum’ demanding further attacks on Greek workers.
Why is all this happening? Supposedly, in order to pay for the sovereign debt. This debt was created by the piling up of annual deficits. But who created these deficits? Various EU economic ‘experts’ claim that the debts were created because Greek workers were lazy and corrupt; because “we lived beyond our means”. But who has been living beyond their means? The one million Greek workers, nearly 25% of the labour force, who earn just 600 to 700 euros a month? The pensioners, 65% of whom earn less than 600 euros? The unemployed, who are only paid unemployment benefit of around 400 euros for 12 months before it stops altogether?
We have been facing repeated waves of austerity for the past 25 years. Austerity policies began back in 1985, in order, supposedly, to raise the competitiveness of the Greek economy. And the result is this new wave of barbaric attacks, worse than all the previous years of austerity put together.
The people who are lazy and corrupt, liars and thieves, are those in power, the ruling elite together with their friends the big capitalists, not Greek workers and pensioners!
They created the deficits, they created the debts. The governments did this consciously, particularly over the past two decades, by transferring wealth to the rich and to big capital, by using the state budget as a conveyor belt.
How was this done? Let me give you a simple example. In the mid ‘90s taxation on corporate profits was 45%. Today it is 20%. But even this 20% is only about 10% in reality. The capitalists receive ludicrous donations, “incentives”, and all sorts of hand-outs so that they can claim back about half of the taxes they have paid.
Government revenue was thus continuously undermined. This led to deficits, which in turn led to loans to cover them. But they want us to pay for them.
Here’s another example of how they are trying to make workers pay for their crisis. Since the start of the banking crisis in 2008, Greek governments, both PASOK and “New Democracy”, have provided the Greek bankers with hot cash or “guarantees” to a total of 108 billion euros. This equals about one-third of the total sovereign debt.
Where do Governments find such huge sums when they are on the verge of bankruptcy? They borrow them – from the EU, the ECB and the IMF. Then they squeeze it out of the Greek working class.
But take a note of the following. They have handed out 108 billion euros in cash or guarantees to the Greek banks when the total value of the Greek banking system on the Greek stock exchange is only about 15 billion euros. In short, the Greek government could have easily bought the whole banking sector, seven times over! But no! Why? Because if they did, they would be admitting that the private sector is hopeless, that capitalism is catastrophic, and that the bankers are parasites.
Now workers are told that, if the Government don’t get loans from the EU and the IMF – under the harsh terms imposed by the EU and the IMF – they won’t have money to pay for wages and pensions. Again, this is lies.
The only reason that they need new loans is to pay back the previous loans. For example, over the ten years between 2000 and 2009, the Greek governments received loans totalling 485 billion euros. Over the same period they paid back the lenders 450 billion euros. So, in 10 years, only 35 billion euros went into the economy. The vast majority just went back to the lenders, into the pockets of the bankers who make loans to the Greek state, into the pockets of the Greek, German, French Swiss, and British bankers. These parasites borrow money from the ECB at 1 – 1 ½ % interest rates and lend it to the Greek state at interest rates of between 5 and 7 %!
According to a recent poll, one year after the first IMF – EU memorandum was applied,
34% of Greek households live below the poverty line,
50% will not have sufficient heating next winter,
45% do not feed themselves properly,
29% are not in a position to pay their utility bills
So it is not a surprise that there is massive anger in Greek society. This is reflected in struggles.
At the moment, there are strikes taking place on a daily basis. There is a demonstration in the centre of Athens nearly every day – often two or three.
But these struggles have not been able to achieve victories. This is because Union leaderships have not been carrying out struggles with the intention of winning them. That’s because the overwhelming majority of union leaderships are under the control of the two political parties which alternate in power in Government, PASOK and New Democracy.
These union leaders call strikes but without a clear timescale, and without any clear plan – just to let off steam. For example, when the government recently announced the closure of nearly 2000 schools, the response of the Teachers’ Union was to call two 24hr strikes - but without any serious plan to continue action in order to stop the closures.
What is worse is that these Unions never coordinate the struggles between them. Every sector fights it out on its own. But, in the present period, no sector on its own can defeat the government, the EU and the IMF – who all work together. The trade union leaders know this very well.
The position taken by the national leaderships of the TU movement – the TUC, in both the private and in the public sector, has been particularly scandalous. Compared to what is happening in the rest of Europe, seven 24-hour general strikes last year and three this year, may seem huge. But, given the traditions of the Greek working class and, above all, compared to the scale of the attacks the Greek working class is facing, this is far from being enough.


Working people understand the treacherous role of the Greek TUC leadership and are boiling with anger. Last year, on the day of a general strike, the TUC leader Panagopoulos tried to make a speech at the workers’ rally but was physically attacked by strikers. He was chased through the crowds, but no trade unionist stepped in to defend him. Since then, he has only been seen in public accompanied by six bodyguards.
It isn’t just that the trade union leaders don’t respond to the needs of the situation – it is also that they systematically sabotage the development of the struggles.
Take the example of my Union, the Bus Workers’ Union of Athens and Piraeus, which has about 6,000 members. When the government began its attack against us last December, the leadership of the Union, under the control of PASOK and ND, tried to justify why they were not calling for militant strike action. Their excuse was to blame workers, saying that they were not willing to fight.
But, when the brutal cuts were announced, they were forced to call for strike action so as not to be completely exposed. Strike action took place over a period of about 3 months. But the leadership was not really determined, there was no plan of action, no escalation, and above all there was absolutely no attempt to coordinate the struggle with other sections of the wider public sector that were also under attack.
Towards the end of February, the majority in the leadership decided that it was time to call off the action. They launched a blatant coup d’état against the Union. They refused to call executive committee meetings, they refused to go the meetings called by other members of the Union executive, and they hid, so that a mass-meeting of the bus-workers would not be called. They knew that if it had been, it would have voted in favour of continuing the struggle.
They then went ahead with a fake ‘referendum’ planned to formalise the decision to stop the strikes. It wasn’t only against the Unions’ constitution, it was also against the law, since they forged the signatures of other members of the Executive Committee, in order to achieve the necessary majority required to call a referendum. All this was done in order to disappoint, to demoralise, to break the will of the bus workers to fight.
There had been three months of struggle. Our action inevitably caused a lot of disruption to the people of Athens and Piraeus who used public transport. But, despite this, they were on our side. Right up to the end of our dispute, 60% of people were in favour of the strike, despite all the massive government propaganda conducted through the mass media. They tried to present the bus workers as evil people determined to make ordinary people suffer so as not to lose our privileges. The public support showed their understanding of the situation and their class solidarity.
For these Trade Union leaders there is only one word: traitors. If my sector had been the only sector which had been sabotaged and betrayed, the damage would not be too great. But this is what they do everywhere.
Despite defeats like ours, the Greek working class will continue to fight. It has no other choice because the attacks that we face will continue and they will be immense.

The last development in the struggles of Greek society has been the movement of the “enraged”. They have followed the example of the Spanish ‘Indignados’ and inspired by the revolutions in the Arab world. Last Sunday, without any exaggeration, 500,000 assembled in the central square in Athens. This was perhaps the biggest gathering of people since 1981.
Greek society is at boiling-point. But in order for this anger to find a way forward and for our struggles to win, we have to do everything we can to rebuild our Trade Union movement.
Trade union organisations must pass into the hands of the rank and file. To be democratically controlled by the membership, the struggles must be in the hands of the movement itself.
At the same time we need to rebuild the political organisations of the working class, because today’s mass left parties have lost the plot. They have shown themselves to be absolutely and entirely inadequate for the tasks of this period. This is one of the reasons why in the most recent polls abstention has reached the unprecedented level for Greece of 50.9%, with support for the mass left parties stagnant.
These are the tasks that we have ahead of us. For these we shall fight in the next period with all our strength.
But there is another task that we must never forget. This is internationalism. This is not a struggle of the Greeks alone, but also of the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Irish, the British and more, because we are all being attacked at the same time.
All over Europe, big capital is united against us, but the working class is not able to put up a united resistance. This is the fault of the leadership. Our strength is immense but it is not put into action. We have to make sure that workers begin to realise their strength and fight together, in united struggles, across the continent.
Let me finish with a message of solidarity for all those taking action on June 30. Get out on the picket lines, on the streets and demonstrations, and show Cameron that, united in action, working people will defeat their attacks.

The euro zone crisis deepens

So as i eluded to earlier in the week with my post on us not being out of the woods of this economic crisis by a long stretch of the imagination i thought i'd follow it up with this excellent article in this week's issue of the socialist
wwhich you can read more brilliant articles like this one at a

www.socialistparty.org.uk
The eurozone faces its deepest crisis since the euro was launched in 1999. Failure to resolve the sharpening Greek debt emergency would have a devastating effect on the European and world economies. A default by Greece, in effect, bankruptcy under which the Greek government would not be able to pay its debts, would trigger a new banking crisis, probably as severe as 2008. At the same time, a Greek default could trigger the breakup of the eurozone, with the emergence of two or more currency areas, if not a complete disintegration.

Greece, moreover, is far from being an isolated case. Ireland, Portugal and Spain face similar problems.

There is no agreement between the eurozone leaders on how to deal with the crisis. Their disarray has been heightened by the Dominique Strauss-Kahn affair, with the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) facing charges of sexual assault in New York.

Whichever policy is followed by the eurozone capitalists, the working class faces a prospect of savage austerity. New loans will only be granted to the Greek government on the basis of even more drastic austerity measures. On the other hand, a default and exit from the eurozone would, on a capitalist basis, also lead to a further degradation of living standards.

The Greek bailout implemented last year has not worked. The Greek government was granted €110 billion of loans on condition that it carried out drastic attacks on the working class: welfare spending cuts, wage cuts, pension cuts, and increased taxes. However, it is estimated that Greece will require around €50 billion of new loans in 2012 to cover its borrowing needs. The main reason Greece has not met its economic targets is that the austerity measures have prolonged the economic slump. The Greek economy contracted by -4.4% last year and is expected to contract by -3.5% this year. In reality, the IMF/ECB/eurozone 'rescue' has only increased the indebtedness of Greek capitalism and undermined its ability to pay off its debts.

Privatisation
The eurozone leaders are discussing a further €30 billion loan to Greece, but only on condition that the government rapidly carries out a further €50 billion of privatisation of state industries and utilities. It has even been proposed that these privatisations should actually be supervised by the IMF, which would mean a complete loss of economic sovereignty for Greece.

Capitalist leaders are deeply divided. The European Central Bank, the German government and others favour more loans to Greece, on condition of further austerity measures and privatisation. Leaders like Angela Merkel in Germany fear an electoral backlash against further bailouts. There is fear of the eurozone becoming a so-called 'transfer union' in which the stronger economies are effectively financing the weak economies.

Other sections of the capitalists, particularly in the finance sector, now believe that a default is inevitable. They recognise there is a limit to the austerity that can be imposed on the Greek people without provoking greater social conflict and uprisings. It would be better, in their view, to carry out an orderly default. This would involve the exchange of existing Greek government bonds for new bonds, guaranteed by the IMF/ECB, etc, that modified their terms. This could mean longer periods of repayment and a lower interest rate. But the most contentious issue is whether there should be a reduction in the face value of the bonds (though in the secondary bond market there is already at least a 40% reduction in the value of the bonds).

The main motive of these finance capitalists is to carry out an effective rescue of the banks. Overall, foreign banks have loaned £1.6 trillion to the four heavily indebted eurozone countries, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Domestic banks also hold billions of euros of government bonds. A forced default, or a panic-driven rescheduling, could trigger a banking crisis on the scale of 2008. There would be huge losses for the banks, not only on government bonds but also on the various 'derivatives' which are linked to the bonds.

At the moment, the Greek government is clinging to the euro (despite rumours early in May that it was considering withdrawal from the eurozone). It calculates that if it is part of the eurozone then the stronger eurozone governments will be forced to bail out the Greek economy.

However, at a certain point the conditions of such a bailout will become unsustainable. The conditions attached to new loans would make them intolerable, making withdrawal from the eurozone preferable. Then, countries like Greece and most likely Ireland and Portugal (and possibly Spain) would at least have the option of devaluing their new national currencies and boosting exports, as well as encouraging inflation which would reduce the real (inflation-adjusted) value of their debts.

Recent events confirm the analysis of the eurozone that the Socialist Party put forward from the beginning. While the euro could develop for a period on the basis of the growth of the European economy, we predicted that the common, multinational currency would not be able to overcome the national divisions of capitalism. In fact, the euro did not bring a 'convergence' between the stronger economies, like Germany and France, and the weaker, 'peripheral' countries, like Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The low interest rates that were based on the performance of the stronger economies helped fuel property bubbles in the weaker economies. They also allowed their governments to hugely increase public spending on the basis of a temporary boost to tax revenues, fuelled by property booms and financial speculation.

When the global economy was pushed into deep recession after the onset of the US subprime crisis in 2007, the peripheral economies were faced with an unsustainable burden of debt. Deficits were boosted by the downturn, with the eruption of mass unemployment and the collapse of tax revenues.

The euro may or may not survive this crisis. But, sooner or later, the eurozone will be wrecked on the rocks of insurmountable economic problems and the conflict of national interests between the member states.

Horrendous austerity measures have provoked massive resistance from the working class throughout Europe, and especially in the countries facing the most acute debt crisis. Workers are furious that they are being forced to pay for a crisis triggered by the banks and other predatory speculators. The real bailout is the rescue of the banks and big business by the working class.

General strikes
In Greece there have been nine general strikes and seemingly endless protests against cuts. There has been resistance in Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Commentators, however, have noted that there appears to be a lull in the strikes and protest action, a certain 'protest fatigue'. Any such pause, however, will be purely temporary. It arises because the leaders of the workers' organisations, while calling strikes under pressure from below, have no alternative to the policy of bailouts and austerity measures.

Faced with this deep, long-term crisis of capitalism, the working class needs a bold alternative. This should be based on a clear refusal to pay the debts run up by capitalist governments, from which banks and other speculators hugely profited when the going was good. Repudiation of debts, however, is not in itself a solution. On the basis of capitalism, bankruptcy of the state would mean a period of prolonged poverty and suffering for the working class.

Control of the banks and the commanding heights of the economy - the major industrial and commercial companies - must be taken out of the hands of the capitalist class, which is responsible for the present global crisis. The economy should be planned and managed in the interests of working people, controlled by elected representatives of workers, trade unions, consumers, community organisations, and so on. This would be the beginnings of a socialist planned economy.

European institutions, like the eurozone and the EU itself, which are clearly agencies of the capitalist ruling class, should not be opposed from a narrow, nationalist point of view. Europe, as well as the wider world economy, cries out for socialist economic planning. This is the only way that the living standards of workers everywhere can be raised, obscene inequalities progressively eradicated, and the environment protected for future generations.

We are not out of the woods yet, not by a long shot

If by some strand of imagination you are under the impression our financial crisis is getting better and we'll be able to get out of it i have bad news for you.

This economic downturn is not a usual economic downturn i think we are on the verge of something big. Very big. The talk now is very much of a double dip recession even leading to a even longer deep depression.

It is no exageration that the rate in which our cost of living and standard of living are rising and falling just as sharply. It is no doubt we are heading backwards from where we have come from i believe.

But is this ia big surprise ? to us marxists no it isnt. Capitalism is full of contradictions and is always just a few steps away from another major international economic crisis.
This is just the ne xt in its long history. Yet still it doesnt learn its lessons if indeed it can. I explain.

In Europe where i think will be where a major shift will occur. We may even see the brak up of the Euro as we know it if a country like Greece, Portugal, Ireland or even Spain which god forbid will send huge shockwaves around the Euro zone as Spain is a big economy. But this is entirely possible.

The Greek economy was one of the fastest growing in the eurozone during the 2000s from 2000 to 2007 it grew at an annual rate of 4.2% as foreign capital flooded the country.] A strong economy and falling bond yields allowed the government of Greece to run large structural deficits. According to an editorial published by the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, large public deficits are one of the features that have marked the Greek social model since the restoration of democracy in 1974. After the removal of the right leaning military junta, the government wanted to bring disenfranchised left leaning portions of the population into the economic mainstream.[15] In order to do so, successive Greek governments have, among other things, run large deficits to finance public sector jobs, pensions, and other social benefits. Since 1993 debt to GDP has remained above 100%.

On 27 April 2010, the Greek debt rating was decreased to the first levels of 'junk' status by Standard & Poor's amidst fears of default by the Greek government.[34] Yields on Greek government two-year bonds rose to 15.3% following the downgrading.] Some analysts question Greece's ability to refinance its debt. Standard & Poor's estimates that in the event of default investors would lose 30–50% of their money.] Stock markets worldwide declined in response to this announcement.[36]

Following downgradings by Fitch, Moody's and S&P,] Greek bond yields rose in 2010, both in absolute terms and relative to German government bonds.[38] Yields have risen, particularly in the wake of successive ratings downgrading. According to The Wall Street Journal, "with only a handful of bonds changing hands, the meaning of the bond move isn't so clear.

On 3 May 2010, the European Central Bank suspended its minimum threshold for Greek debt "until further notice",] meaning the bonds will remain eligible as collateral even with junk status. The decision will guarantee Greek banks' access to cheap central bank funding, and analysts said it should also help increase Greek bonds' attractiveness to investors.[41] Following the introduction of these measures the yield on Greek 10-year bonds fell to 8.5%, 550 basis points above German yields, down from 800 basis points earlier.

On 5 March 2010, the Greek parliament passed the Economy Protection Bill, expected to save €4.8 billion through a number of measures including public sector wage reductions. On 23 April 2010, the Greek government requested that the EU/IMF bailout package be activated.] The IMF had said it was "prepared to move expeditiously on this request".] Greece needed money before 19 May, or it would face a debt roll over of $11.3bn.

Without a bailout agreement, there was a possibility that Greece would have been forced to default on some of its debt. The premiums on Greek debt had risen to a level that reflected a high chance of a default or restructuring. Analysts gave a 25% to 90% chance of a default or restructuring.] A default would most likely have taken the form of a restructuring where Greece would pay creditors only a portion of what they were owed, perhaps 50 or 25 percent.] This would effectively remove Greece from the euro, as it would no longer have collateral with the European Central Bank.


Greece has already had 9 general strikes across the country and there is a great distrust of the government and the EU as a whole there now.

One of the central concerns prior to the bailout was that the crisis could spread beyond Greece. The crisis has reduced confidence in other European economies. Ireland, with a government deficit of 14.3% of GDP, the U.K. with 12.6%, Spain with 11.2%, and Portugal at 9.4% are most at risk.

On the positive side, The Economist acknowledged on 27 May 2010 that while Europe's "profligate economies will struggle ... as austerity kicks in," it also pointed out that "waning confidence will be mitigated by the boost that exports receive from the euro’s plunge."


But this may not be enough to save the tumbling Euro. There is smimply no fat there to absorb this next wave of the crisis. I think we stand on the edge of another banking crisis where several big banks require bailing out again. I do think this can and will happen. I hope it doesnt obviosly but another banking cris that could make 2008 look like a drop in the ocean compared to the next banking crash could effectively end the Euro as we know it today. there is simply nothing to absorb the crash coming up it seems.

As further bailouts will have to happen as the governments of these countries look to prop up their failing battered capitalist system with fear growing across Europe further austerity cuts will be forced on the working class to pay for more and more of this.

I really dont think we have even seen the start of this crisis yet only just the tip of the iceberg there is still plenty time to go and i feel we will get worse before we improve.

Even a labour party who you would think would regain power in 2015 at the next general electionw ill be forced into making cuts by the markets who will be wanting them to carry on with the project of cuts to restore confidence in the financial markets.

So if we think labour will be any better we will be sorely mistaken. This is a global crisisa nd no one government will be able to solve this alone i feel.

Only a changing of the whole system, a over throw of capitalism thrown on to the scrap heap for good with a socialist planned economy will be able to bring the world back to a even keel i feel.

Will any country try going down that route ? i really do hope so.

Only socialism can provide for the many not just the few. It is time to rid ourselves of this blood sucking system that capitalism has forced upon us.